Model output discussion - into 2018

[The Eagle]

6 minutes ago, Snow Grain said:

Looking at the latest outputs, I’m am not seeing what most coldies desire which is a true easterly or direct easterly.  Let’s hope that future outputs show an improvement.

That's still snow showers for east coasts of UK and Ireland. Not bad even if short lived. Harsh frost and ice too. What's not to like?

[Summer Sun]

UKMO extended must have got a little bit drunk overnight and hasn't updated hopefully it will have recovered for the 12z tonight

Here's to another year of weather watching

 

 

Edited January 1, 2018 by Summer Sun

[Chesil View]

Crikey I must have been very drunk last night I dreamt the ecm had a sturdy scandi high and troughs  disrupting southeastwards to our west.

[SMU]

The ECM is in (my) expectation a snip progressive again leaving the 240 chart plenty of room to be a long cold spell -

awaiting UKMO 168- however @144 thickness is very low in London about 522 DAM ...

If we pan out like UKMO it’s a big cold spell with snow falling in Scotland by Thursday...

 

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

..

If we pan out like UKMO it’s a big cold spell with snow falling in Scotland by Thursday...

 

Nothing from stav danaos about a big cold spell..or any cold spell for that matter!

Shirley it's just a matter of time before the media wake up and smell what the models are showing, if that makes any sense

[northwestsnow]

Ecmean has the Atlantic moving in at 192 with cold air still in place!!

I'm thinking its back to milder DET this morning 

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Nothing from stav danaos about a big cold spell..or any cold spell for that matter!

Shirley it's just a matter of time before the media wake up and smell what the models are showing, if that makes any sense

He must like GFS then?

Or MOGREPS has flipped?

[The Eagle]

7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

awaiting UKMO 168- however @144 thickness is very low in London about 522 DAM ...

 

Not that it matters...

[feb1991blizzard]

7 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Nothing from stav danaos about a big cold spell..or any cold spell for that matter!

Shirley it's just a matter of time before the media wake up and smell what the models are showing, if that makes any sense

Stav Danaos's forecast only goes out to the end of the week, not sure he is talking about the weekend.

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, ShortWaveHell said:

Like that ?

EXACTLY as i suspected..

Mildest run in the longer term.

 

[tight isobar]

11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EXACTLY as i suspected..

Mildest run in the longer term.

 

A slight upping to milder...after a 3/4-day cold snap..

And the ecm ooz op/and support look too progressive against other suites and indeed evolution.

So expect it to fall back into line, through todays 12z.

Edit; if ukmo in anywhere near the mark, and easterly incur of the one flagged will be a demon to breakdown..

The atlantic/mobile push will NOT have the ecm ooz- trample down!!

Edited January 1, 2018 by tight isobar

[feb1991blizzard]

Maybe ive missed it but the GEM worth a mention, it gives heavy snow showers for the East pushing in land and the initial cold spell prolonged with snow showers hanging on in the SE followed by a successful undercut which keeps snow potential going right out to 240 hrs.

[Dennis]

it starts someday this month winter2018 ... 

[snowbunting]

All charts lead to cold and some snowshowers by the weekend..again...

We live in one of the mildest parts of the UK.. (chuckle)...  so far we have had three significant snow events.. Nov and 2 in december. Locals are calling this a harsh winter. Loads of frosts and ice. 

The synoptics are modelling a rather unusal scenario with high pressure to the North near swalbvard. The jetstream is waving and meandering about like crazy even with a huge area of cold over the US. 

This isnt a normal mild winter.

[tight isobar]

6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Maybe ive missed it but the GEM worth a mention, it gives heavy snow showers for the East pushing in land and the initial cold spell prolonged with snow showers hanging on in the SE followed by a successful undercut which keeps snow potential going right out to 240 hrs.

The taperng off around the 10th is a bit of a giveaway as to probable progression via the ec-0zz.

 

[bluearmy]

Strangely, with this evolution, the weaker and shorter the easterly flow , the lower the uppers. a big amplified ridge at the beginning cuts offf the cold uppers getting south. Whilst the ecm op looks less exciting then yesterday's 12z re the scandi high,  it's position by day 10 isn't too different re the Atlantic. Re the extended eps, same theme but a slightly stronger Atlantic and azores though nothing much more than run to run variance. Suspect the clusters will be slightly less majority undercutty than last set. 

 

[Weathizard]

Looking at the GEFS this morning, they are completely at odds with the rest of the 0z output, just look how much warmer the 850's are than the ECM mean, a good 3-4c for some of the UK. Either the GEFS has totally lost the plot or the other models are still drunk, more runs needed. 

If I had a pound for everytime 'more runs needed' has been said in this thread I'd be in Lapland right now 

Edited January 1, 2018 by Weathizard

[TEITS]

I know I should be focussing on the coming weekend but after viewing the GEM I still cannot stop thinking about the potential longer range. I shall highlight how sometimes E,lys do not always start bitter and sometimes take a while.

Jan 25th 1991

Bitter E,lys didn't arrive until 7th Feb

Reason im highlighting this is because I think we could see something similiar. What I mean by this is our high to the NE building with any Atlantic intrusion heading SE. At the same time cold air moving S on the right flank of the high pressure. Aslong as this happens and the position and orientation is in the right place then its only a matter of time before the bitter airmass heads our way.

Some of you might be looking forward to the starter but im more focussed on the main course!

[shaky]

Early chamges on 06gfs!!shortwave low west of irleland much shallower!!

[SMU]

Just now, shaky said:

Early chamges on 06gfs!!shortwave low west of irleland much shallower!!

Also 5 DAM heigher heights over Iceland @78

Snowline into Scotland @72.

The track of the trigger low is correcting south on all models

A good comparable of the change is the JMA 84 00z v the 96 12z ...

[Scandinavian High.]

Well looks set for much colder weather  later on weekend with high pressure to the north then   Extending north east and it looks  prolonged with any weather fronts coming in from west undercutting and giving  significant snow fall in places very cold outlook with gem and as been the most consistent... 

[shaky]

5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Also 5 DAM heigher heights over Iceland @78

Snowline into Scotland @72.

The track of the trigger low is correcting south on all models

A good comparable of the change is the JMA 84 00z v the 96 12z ...

And steve am sure that is was that same shortwave that was forecasted to be really deep run after run after run!!now its sliding sort of southwards!!cold spell is upgrading early doors instead!!

[SMU]

3 minutes ago, shaky said:

And steve am sure that is was that same shortwave that was forecasted to be really deep run after run after run!!now its sliding sort of southwards!!cold spell is upgrading early doors instead!!

Yes

GFS now looking like the UKMO

Edited January 1, 2018 by Steve Murr

[Scandinavian High.]

5 minutes ago, ShortWaveHell said:

That’s a model I never look at , does it verify well?

You never no the gem could have this naild .

[tinybill]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Yes

hope  your  right steve looking at the models  not seeing it  only rain !!