Model output discussion - into 2018

[A Frayed Knot]

And ? i told you so in the last Thread . 2 weeks of Mild then Cold ' never write me of .

i Look and never post .

I see a very cold snap coming

And it will be a Brutal Cold long Haul .

Winter of 40s ' Naffle on 2010 .  2010 was a boring snaffle

Enjoy the snaffle b4 the crunch and sniffle .

[CK1981]

If the Met Office are staying very cold, I’m guessing they’re seeing a more SW/NE orientated block. Just a thought 

[The Eagle]

A cold UKMO

 

[Ali1977]

HNY all

GFS still not good as per the 18z, heights just don’t get north enough and uppers aren’t cold , by Monday the cooler air is pushed away. ENS slightly better but Defo no ECM or the good UKMO posted above.

big ECM coming up but I’ve a feeling that it won’t be as good and as normal we miss out - again!! 

[The Eagle]

4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

HNY all

GFS still not good as per the 18z, heights just don’t get north enough and uppers aren’t cold , by Monday the cooler air is pushed away. ENS slightly better but Defo no ECM or the good UKMO posted above.

big ECM coming up but I’ve a feeling that it won’t be as good and as normal we miss out - again!! 

That's the spirit! 

[tight isobar]

Happy 2018...on this stunning moonlight morning...(here anyway)

Some great synoptics via 00z suites..

Taking ukmo/gfs/gem/navgem..on 144 snaps; isn't hard to see the trend is fast becoming-worthy of a notable cold spell from the east....

Everthing starts to transpire from around 96hrs..as the flows begins to ebb,..

Fully expect a reapeat from the 00z ec-as a match for its cracking 12z suite...

What a start to modeling for the first day of the year....

Will be looking for plenty of chance for snow via any convection as we move deeper into modeling for the potentialy prolonged cold spell we 'may' now be eyeing.....

Edited January 1, 2018 by tight isobar

[booferking]

Starting to get interesting now gem going for it and quite a few off the gfs ens very cold Easterly.

[Ali1977]

10 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

That's the spirit! 

True - a bit pessimistic but good reason after the last few years. I will add that the GEFS have many Perbs better than the Op so expect that to be a warm outlier. 

One of the ENS below is v v good, and snowy

 

Edited January 1, 2018 by Ali1977

[Ali1977]

ECM looking great at 144 with Country in -6c uppers atleast - could be plenty of snow showers anywhere with this chart. Let’s hope the heights move north and hold - I expect the heights haven’t quite pushed far north enough for that though - as per the 18z anyway

Edited January 1, 2018 by Ali1977

[The Eagle]

ECM overall positive to 120 hrs but breaks down quickly.

 

When the HP tries to build from the SW we want a UKMO scenario.

Edited January 1, 2018 by The Eagle

[Allseasons-Si]

A good start to 2018 from the ecm and ukmo at 144,time to go to bed now

happy 2018 guys

Edited January 1, 2018 by Allseasons-si

[feb1991blizzard]

4 hours ago, Bring Back1962-63 said:

Hi Feb, Happy New Year to you.

Did you post this chart as a joke or have you been out celebrating a little too enthusiastically? As I think it has been produced for just that purpose. The location 87.8 N and 20 W is on the Polar ice cap!!! The 850 temps of sub -25c are about right for that location. Big chances of snow on every day. Yes, the temps certainly show a dip and the whole graph is a real slider!

HNY - I was making a sarcastic post wrt the ECM London graph ensembles.

[geordiekev]

White Rabbit White Rabbit White ARCTIC Rabbit ?

Happy New Year All, things are certainly looking up, better than they have for years. 2017 been a difficult one for a few members on here and myself but onwards and upwards NW soldiers ?❄ ?

Edited January 1, 2018 by geordiekev

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Happy new year to everyone!!! 

The problem I see though is that the GFS is poor, it never develops any meaningful cold, where as the ukmo and ecm do.

The bigger issue though is we threw the ukmo out already this winter when it didn't want to play ball and we followed the GFS. Now we are following the ukmo and discounting the GFS 

[nick sussex]

Morning all

Hope you all enjoyed your New Years Eve celebrations although as the years advance I get rather traumatized at the thought of heading towards another year older!

Anyway, good and bad this morning.

In terms of overall pattern best early and late the UKMO has the best output, it delivers early cold and then upstream looks better than the ECM.

The ECM starts off well with the cold ne flow but then becomes much more progressive, quite a departure from its 12hrs run.

The GFS is all a bit meh! its a bit better than the GFS18hrs run which was rather underwhelming but makes a lot of shortwave energy to the north.

You can look at this two ways the initial problems were getting the low sufficiently se and the ECM and UKMO do this so now of course it wouldn't be a UK winter without two steps forward and one back with the ECM.

Still waiting for the ECM ensembles to come out and then we'll see where the op sits.

[Newberryone]

Happy New Year from the rebel county. Wk no 2 not starting out on such an inspiring note for coldies unfortunately this morning courtesy of an all too familiar Canadian vortex bulldozing through any aforementioned block. Only one run but hopefully not a trend setter.

[carinthian]

Happy New Year to all Net Weather Folk. This great forum is my life link to Blighty.I know your weather is crap and frustrating for most of the time, but you lot still live in one of the best countries on this planet by a mile. Never let anyone tell you any different. Now this mornings chart, you could not write the script for such a dramatic diverge in models to start the 2018. ECM flips from last evening super run , GFS  not interested in any proper cold outcome, GEM then produces a real old school gem of  winter charts ( 1979 like ! ) So best now stick with UKMO which looks good to me with a more robust high and pressure getting  in place with a cold feed for most that may hold up the Atlantic in the further outlook. More drama today with flips galore likely. Great weather watching. Think Brittany is getting a battering this morning. Very mild flow through out mainland Europe now getting into the Alps. 

[Matthew.]

The ECM has some significant cold Saturday through Monday pilling in. Snow showers for the east I would imagine pushing inland on a very cold Neasterly

[Ali1977]

Mean slightly better than the Op by next Monday so should be a decent cluster amounts them - by 240 the mean shows Scandy under HP (although no Easterly for the UK) the op has no HP over Scandy !! ?

Edited January 1, 2018 by Ali1977

[Summer Sun]

UKMO looking very cold by the weekend

[Blessed Weather]

Happy New Year everyone! Fascinating model watching! Pleasing to see that although the Strat PV might be flexing its' muscles up above, the Trop PV is still being knocked about down below!

Brief observation - whilst this morning's 0z ECM isn't as good as yesterday's 12z, it does retain good amplification and suggests ongoing opportunities. Late in the run a suggestion of the Azores high ridging towards Greenland and a substantial trough dropping into Europe. Surely Jan 2018 is going to deliver at some stage!!

[SMU]

Morning all

A spectacular opening to 2018 with this @ just 120

heavy snow/ showers moving South-

we have also lost the warm Easterly

The 18z is just a distant memory...

[Frosty.]

Happy New Year y'all

There is certainly some happy model output for coldies this morning!

[Snow Grain]

Looking at the latest outputs, I’m am not seeing what most coldies desire which is a true easterly or direct easterly.  Let’s hope that future outputs show an improvement.

[SteveB]

Happy New Year all 

Plenty to look forward to Weather wise in 2018 including the potential up coming cold spell.

Lets hope we get a nationwide snow event