Model output discussion - into 2018

[SMU]

4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Holy smokes, the GFS looks awful; there isn't even any pressure rise to the N of us at 144 hrs

The issue is, it's entirely feasible...could be a few sore heads in the morning facing a model (ECM) volt face.

No mate it’s just because it’s the 18z GFS same as the woeful 06z GFS

* Sh*t data & limited obs.

[Daniel*]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Of all the evenings for the 18z to be sober ............ HNY

It’s far from sober it’s drunk as a skunk can’t make head or tail of anything. 

[Polar Maritime]

More in line with BBC weekly, What with a N/Ey type flow. 

 

[alexisj9]

10 hours ago, ShortWaveHell said:

Keep seeing the term battleground pop up on here whilst I know what this is .. Atlantic trying to Move into cold air ... has there been any years where a battleground has led to a sustained event ? Of the snow / cold persuasion 

Yes but admittely many years ago now.

[bobbydog]

11 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Forget the 18z & move on it’s clearly broken.

HAPPY NEW YEAR EVERYONE

 

[Daniel*]

GFS 18z can be discarded. EC day 10 mean a marked improvement to yesterday’s.

 

[ACCOUNT DELETED]

I'm having problems viewing the GFS on Meteociel today, it's now switching from 12z to 18z back to 6z as I go to scroll through. Anyone else got this problem? I don't know if I'm coming or going with it!

Edited December 31, 2017 by Draig Goch

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, Daniel* said:

GFS 18z can be discarded. EC day 10 mean a marked improvement to yesterday’s.

 

No model run can ever be discarded. There have been times where the GFS has correctly called out the correct progression after latching on to it on its 18z run. Many times in fact.

[bobbydog]

3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

It’s far from sober it’s drunk as a skunk can’t make head or tail of anything. 

[bobbydog]

Just now, CreweCold said:

No model run can ever be discarded. There have been times where the GFS has correctly called out the correct progression after latching on to it on its 18z run. Many times in fact.

Edited December 31, 2017 by bobbydog

[January Snowstorm]

Just now, CreweCold said:

No model run can ever be discarded. There have been times where the GFS has correctly called out the correct progression after latching on to it on its 18z run. Many times in fact.

I would agree

Age tells us this after many years of following models.

Indeed with easterlys we can have 3 days of full agreement only for it still to go kaput! 

Steve I enjoy your optimism and with the Met on board you could well be right but for me I won't be discounting anything and see little evidence to rubbish the 06z or 18z. In fact they've often spotted a trend

[Daniel*]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

No model run can ever be discarded. There have been times where the GFS has correctly called out the correct progression after latching on to it on its 18z run. Many times in fact.

I think it can be this is a very rare occasion when I can say convincingly it ought to be binned entirely. GFS or MOGREPS..

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

4 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

I would agree

Age tells us this after many years of following models.

Indeed with easterlys we can have 3 days of full agreement only for it still to go kaput! 

Steve I enjoy your optimism and with the Met on board you could well be right but for me I won't be discounting anything and see little evidence to rubbish the 06z or 18z. In fact they've often spotted a trend

Indeed... All to do with nuances within the balance of bifurcated jet flow. Never trust any easterly until within 72 hrs. 

[booferking]

If the Easterly fails then we will have to make do with polar maritime flow which has delivered all winter.

[Purga]

Never mind the 18z just have a fantastic NY eve folks & A HAPPY & SNOWY NEW YEAR TO YOU ALL!

PS : From IF

"The opening days of 2018 will bring further phases of wet & windy weather, ahead of a marked shift by nxt weekend into colder conditions (derived from combined effects, driven by a broad pattern change across N Pacific/N America). Longevity of cold period uncertain."

ALL THE BEST

[bobbydog]

ah well, my star wars reference must only make sense to me!  the beer is having an effect! happy new year everyone! 

dont' worry, the GFS doesn't control the weather. 

these are not the charts you are looking for...

[SLEETY]

18 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

No model run can ever be discarded. There have been times where the GFS has correctly called out the correct progression after latching on to it on its 18z run. Many times in fact.

And  just as many times it’s been incorrect too.Just saying

[The Eagle]

At as early as 96 hrs it's game set match on the GFS 18z.

 

 

The height rises in the GIN corridor aren't there to the extent they need to be - re UKMO and ECM. Ominous but by no means over.

[Frosty.]

I think there is a lack of balloon data on the Gfs 18z tonight, the strong height rises to the n / ne should return in the morning...Happy New year 

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

At as early as 96 hrs it's game set match on the GFS 18z.

 

 

The height rises in the GIN corridor aren't there to the extent they need to be - re UKMO and ECM. Ominous but by no means over.

I have thought about it for all of three seconds and I will stick with ecm/ukmo/gem/gfs 12z + ens over gfs 18z 

anyway, eps clusters reveal around 30% support for mobile westerly winning out post T300. Other two clusters have undercutting of heights to out ne or north out to day 15 which would prove fairly seasonal ..........

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I have thought about it for all of three seconds and I will stick with ecm/ukmo/gem/gfs 12z + ens over gfs 18z 

anyway, eps clusters reveal around 30% support for mobile westerly winning out post T300. Other two clusters have undercutting of heights to out ne or north out to day 15 which would prove fairly seasonal ..........

Yes, and in any case, surely we should wait for the 18z gefs first, if its a big outlier then surely it should be binned, I'm by no means on board by any stretch yet for any UK wide snow // severe cold event but surely one op run isn't the end of the world YET.

[bluearmy]

8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, and in any case, surely we should wait for the 18z gefs first, if its a big outlier then surely it should be binned, I'm by no means on board by any stretch yet for any UK wide snow // severe cold event but surely one op run isn't the end of the world YET.

Is anyone ?  Nothing definitive we have seen as yet points to such a thing. The trends are there for sure but to extrapolate to that is a fair old step 

[Cheshire Freeze]

10 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, and in any case, surely we should wait for the 18z gefs first, if its a big outlier then surely it should be binned, I'm by no means on board by any stretch yet for any UK wide snow // severe cold event but surely one op run isn't the end of the world YET.

Well, for what it's worth, the control isn't much better

[The Eagle]

I'll have 4 please, thanks

 

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Well, for what it's worth, the control isn't much better

The mean isn't desperate though. although crapper than the 12z.

Edited December 31, 2017 by feb1991blizzard