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Model output discussion - into 2018

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7 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

While everyone seems to be bogged-down with analysing the hour-by-hour 'evolution' at day 10, I am reminded of an unpleasant spell of ENE'erlies from January 1969: it was seldom cold enough for snow to fall and led to three or four days' persistent rain and sleet...The rest of that winter, however, provided oodles of snow. So, write nothing off; it's far too early for that! :santa-emoji:

Well said Ed, took the words right out of my mouth..fingers:D:santa-emoji:

Edited by Frosty.
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51 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Absolutely, I don't understand all the negativity this morning! coldies are definitely in the game, it's already the best winter in terms of snow for several years and I feel the best is yet to come..enjoy the ride!:drinks:

The feeling of negativity probably comes from NW England , we've had no snow so far this winterand the models do not suggest that will change anytime soon

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16 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

In which case, why object to a high res decent model like GEM being highlighted? 

Fwiw, the eps run at 14km out to T240. The gfs op is at 13km. The ec at 9km and the other ops between 15 and 18km

so if we are going on resolution alone, the 50 eps members are as useful as the gfs op?? 

The icelandic view eps clusters are available here : http://brunnur.vedur.is/kort/ec-ens/2017/12/30/00/

It was not an objection just a view point, posters can do as they please obviously. Eps runs together with ens etc are skewered from the start of the run so to speak, but hey I know how you love your stats so you stick with them. I am just following numerous  past  failings of ensemble runs even when things looked like a lock (not that they do this time ) and instead using  experience and  intuition which tell me no its not going to happen.  You obviously have more faith in the Gem model and ensembles fair play another 36 to 48 hours will probably be enough to sort this puzzle out and I very much doubt the gem or 06z will prove correct. Again I really hope I am wrong and we get the snowy bitter easterly we grave.

 

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1 minute ago, Spurry said:

The feeling of negativity probably comes from NW England , we've had no snow so far this winterand the models do not suggest that will change anytime soon

From what I've seen on the news, it's already been the best winter for several years and from what the models are showing, more wintry weather could be in the way..soon!:D:cold-emoji:

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2 minutes ago, comet said:

It was not an objection just a view point, posters can do as they please obviously. Eps runs together with ens etc are skewered from the start of the run so to speak, but hey I know how you love your stats so you stick with them. I am just following numerous  past  failings of ensemble runs even when things looked like a lock (not that they do this time ) and instead using  experience and  intuition which tell me no its not going to happen.  You obviously have more faith in the Gem model and ensembles fair play another 36 to 48 hours will probably be enough to sort this puzzle out and I very much doubt the gem or 06z will prove correct. Again I really hope I am wrong and we get the snowy bitter easterly we grave.

 

To be fair BA has not ever said a bitter Easterly is likely to develop if you read his posts, nor has he sad that the GEM 0z hours run is likely to verify.

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

To be fair BA has not ever said a bitter Easterly is likely to develop if you read his posts, nor has he sad that the GEM 0z hours run is likely to verify.

To be equally fair I never said or intended to imply that he said anything about a bitter easterly maybe I should have worded it better. The fact that he said the Gem is also a high res model implied to me that he puts more faith in its output than  myself that is all.

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5 minutes ago, comet said:

To be equally fair I never said or intended to imply that he said anything about a bitter easterly maybe I should have worded it better. The fact that he said the Gem is also a high res model implied to me that he puts more faith in its output than  myself that is all.

 last one from me before the 12z's anyway - anyone who knows BA's posting style knows he rarely puts much faith in any op output beyond D6 (when its outside or near to the edge of the spread) - UNLESS its very consistent run to run.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Despite what many folks seem to believe, both times that the all-time UK minimum has been achieved (-27.2C [Dec.1981 or Jan. '82 and Dec.1995]?) have occurred in northerly outbreaks...? Even the easterly of 1987 didn't equal that...

So, what has any of this got to do with the models? Only this: don't write-off northerlies, they can deliver the goods!:santa-emoji:

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16 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

 last one from me before the 12z's anyway - anyone who knows BA's posting style knows he rarely puts much faith in any op output beyond D6 (when its outside or near to the edge of the spread) - UNLESS its very consistent run to run.

D6 is often the start of FI for the BI , unless we are under a HP with cross model agreement 

So wise I’d say 

Edited by Banbury
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I really believe we could be looking at a more southerly tracking jet at times with potential for cold incursions which would be a lot better than the predominantly mild mush of recent winters..if anything we are looking at a more level playing field in terms of mild and cold than we have seen in recent winters!!:)

 

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23 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Despite what many folks seem to believe, both times that the all-time UK minimum has been achieved (-27.2C [Dec.1981 or Jan. '82 and Dec.1995]?) have occurred in northerly outbreaks...? Even the easterly of 1987 didn't equal that...

So, what has any of this got to do with the models? Only this: don't write-off northerlies, they can deliver the goods!:santa-emoji:

I think your thinking like me. I believe the high will be further nw of the UK and therefore a more nw/n/ne wind will be main source. Let's see

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GEM is a useful tool, much like the other NWP, but like the others, shouldn’t be taken as a given fact. Use as guidance and use in conjunction with other NWP and you’ll find your forecasts become more accurate!

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Looking through the models I'd take a n/nw anyday. To the east the models try to build cold but never really manage a sustained period. Looking to the north and nw I think offers more potential for cold and snow.

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Just looked at the latest GEFS 6z mean..I see plenty of cold or at least rather cold weather ahead with a risk of sleet and snow at times, especially for central and northern areas and particularly with elevation during the next few weeks..with frosts and ice too!:cold-emoji:

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Easterly flow there lets see if this gets more support later or will see a north westerly flow I would like us see some proper cold from the north east with undercutting from the south west with a good dumping of snow...

IMG_0276.PNG

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To me this winter has the feel of a season that  is building up to something quite substantial. 

Firstly it has started off by defying the global seasonal models which pretty much all went for substantially warmer than average.

Now when typical La Nina suggests we should start to go flat out mild and and westerly the medium range nwp modelling wants to bring the jet way south with a trough into central Europe.

This kind of set up will always leave the door open for hieght rises to our north or northeast.

My current thoughts are that the suggested scandi high on the nwp will simply be the opening skirmish in which the wintriest weather will occur in the period mid jan to mid feb.

 

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GEM was the first to pick up something forgot when there’s been several occasions, it’s not a bad model in some occasions I’ve been impressed it has its moments hopefully it is having another. :santa-emoji:

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I really believe something more wintry could be on the way again towards the end of next week onwards, if not for the whole of the uk, at least further north with snow returning for some as well as frosts and ice..since this is the uk and not north America / Canada or Russia, temps will be milder at times but I honestly think there is much more wintry weather to come during the weeks ahead!:)

Edited by Frosty.

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2 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

Despite what many folks seem to believe, both times that the all-time UK minimum has been achieved (-27.2C [Dec.1981 or Jan. '82 and Dec.1995]?) have occurred in northerly outbreaks...? Even the easterly of 1987 didn't equal that...

So, what has any of this got to do with the models? Only this: don't write-off northerlies, they can deliver the goods!:santa-emoji:

I love a good northerly but let's face it, they used to be a lot colder in the 80s and 90s as there was a lot more ice in the Arctic. Today the ice is at a record low.

Anyway, the ICON is out and offers an easterly but without cold uppers. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/icone_cartes.php?&ech=180&mode=0&map=0&archive=0

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Just learning about model reading but doesn't this show an Iceland high where there is usually a semi perminant low. Wouldn't this allow a blocking effect in the Atlantic all be it only briefly. Wouldn't this allow for a e/he over the uk? Or have I got this totally wrong?

Screenshot_20171230-154512.png

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