Model output discussion - into 2018

[karyo]

Thankfully the UKMO does not agree with the ICON. it keeps the Azores high out in the Atlantic and digs the trough through us. 

This should be quite a wintry chart. https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=144&carte=1021

 

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

5 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

I have a feeling people have been writing this off all to quick, we no how stubborn these blocks can be and I’m pretty sure it won’t disappear in any hurry

Yep the polar NW is looking on very shaky ground based on the 12z GFS run.  That high to the E is gaining strength and pushing W with every run.  Get a portion of the Atlantic underneath to prop it up and it is very game on.

[shaky]

Arpege continues on its merry way in strengthening the block!!its massive and pushed further west at 96 hours compared to this mornings run!!

[doctor32]

7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Notice on UKMO 96 a bank of cold appears to the NE -

All i ever notice from your uploaded charts is 'How flat your battery always is' 

Oh... and how stubborn this block is every time the atlantic approaches!

[fromey]

Are we anywhere near a resolution?

this is its like walking through treacle 

[SMU]

Aperge 102

notice England gets down to -6c now... which I believe I had as my bench mark line.....

Eastern Uk Theta E down to 14 @96–

*UKMO144 Just gets past the meridian-which is great for Ireland/ NW

 

Edited January 9, 2018 by Steve Murr

[frosty ground]

5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Aperge 102

notice England gets down to -6c now... which I believe I had as my bench mark line.....

Eastern Uk Theta E down to 14 @96–

*UKMO144 Just gets past the meridian-which is great for Ireland/ NW

 

Can you expand on that?

[Weather-history]

11 minutes ago, Kentish Snowman said:

Yep the polar NW is looking on very shaky ground based on the 12z GFS run.  That high to the E is gaining strength and pushing W with every run.  Get a portion of the Atlantic underneath to prop it up and it is very game on.

I still think that high pressure is playing for suckers. No evidence the NWly is on shaky ground based on that GFS 12z run because it is still modelled to happen. What's more UKMO also models for it as well.

 

Edited January 9, 2018 by Weather-history

[supernova]

It's entirely feasible next week could turn into Slidergate The Sequel. Much colder uppers on this run from both directions (East and West). I would gladly buy a round for @TEITS and @Steve Murr if this goes their way - they've delivered great insight AND entertainment this last week with their insightful comments. 

[frosty ground]

1 minute ago, Weather-history said:

I still think that high pressure is playing for suckers. No evidence the NWly is on shaky ground based on that GFS 12z run because it is still modelled to happen. What's more UKMO also models for it as well.

 

The block is certainly playing hardball but as you say no model shows the block standing up to the Atlantic beyond day 5

[ukpaul]

The block being an irritant on this run, helping nobody. Hopefully the ensembles give a better picture one way or the other, rather than just delaying the inevitable. The western seaboard ridge now looks much less pronounced too which could give major upstream changes.

Edited January 9, 2018 by ukpaul

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

Just now, Weather-history said:

I still think that high pressure is playing for suckers. No evidence the NW is on shaky ground based on that GFS 12z run because it is still modelled to happen. What's more UKMO also models for it as well.

 

Yeah but it is not moving any closer that is the issue.  I would love to see it happen but I just can't see it.  It may reach the UK temporarily before getting pushed back although I do agree there is more chance of seeing the white stuff from the West rather than the East as things stand.

[SMU]

7 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Can you expand on that?

You have a front just out into the North Sea & you have a very cold PM flow over Ireland & the NW-

The issue with the 96-120 evolution is that every step the cut off low makes south it strengthens the push back west - which at some point would start bending the Atlantic south instead of east- one to watch out for but by no means a cert. 

[Dean E]

The 0z ECM and 12z UKMO are very similar right now, breaking the block down by +144hr. ECM 12z in a few hours will be interesting saying the least.

However the GFS has been slowly showing the block sticking around for a day longer since the 0z run. Going against its own biased, which normally see's the Atlantic smash through only to 'delay' a breakdown closer to an event.

The 12z adds to this slower breakdown of the block, with a added cut off low being sent towards Iberia.

Anything possible pass this weekend and would urge caution. Trends are important of course, with a cold or very cold PM source a good bet for after the weekend as things currently stand. Any change in this weeks output can change everything.

 

Edited January 9, 2018 by Dean E

[Day 10]

GFS, GEM, UKMO 144

[Weather-history]

7 minutes ago, Kentish Snowman said:

Yeah but it is not moving any closer that is the issue. 

Yes it is, because it is within UKMO range now at 144hrs

UKMO 12z 144hrs

Yesterday's 12z UKMO 144hrs

And the 8th January 12z UKMO 144hrs

Edited January 9, 2018 by Weather-history

[Daniel*]

GFS is going to have a big upgrade planned for sometime in 2019. It’s very much needed, would be ironic if GFS become the model of choice.

 

[Seasonality]

06z to 12z. Check out Greenland. 

[Captain Shortwave]

I can't see the block holding on against a very strong jet stream across the Atlantic, but that might not end up being a bad thing.

      

It is unusual to see the jet at that strength pushing ESE through the south of the country, but we do see warm air advection pushwestwards from the high to our east which goes over the top of the deep trough, I wonder whether we might be talking about a potential Greenland high not too far down the line and that would be after several days of chilly if not cold weather with strong north westerly winds bringing plenty of wintry showers even to low levels. The general model consensus does seem to suggest that the tropospheric polar vortex over Canada could blow itself out by the start of week two which could mean that we could get heights building there which would be helped if we could get some proper Atlantic ridging as well.

Worth noting that at day 6 the UKMO looks even more keen to push higher heights towards our north and eventually north west.

Edited January 9, 2018 by Captain Shortwave

[carinthian]

UNREAL. A NW ly that stretching from Davis Straights to Crete. Must be the longest flow in chart history. 5000miles !   Crazy synoptic.

C

[frosty ground]

By the time the GFS gets to Day 10 it has shown the UK under -5 north Westerly Winds for 4 days straight.....

Also worth noting is the Block to the East only get pushed back, but its still hanging around.

[ukpaul]

1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

By the time the GFS gets to Day 10 it has shown the UK under -5 north Westerly Winds for 4 days straight.....

Also worth noting is the Block to the East only get pushed back, but its still hanging around.

Well the western part of it was spat out towards Greenland, it’s one way to geta Greenie high I suppose! Needs keeping an eye on, especially with the impressive UKMO 144h showing it even more.

[Dean E]

7 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

06z to 12z. Check out Greenland. 

Good spot, I guess the question is are the models reacting to a upcoming predicted SSW (i'm not sure if models are programmed or use intermodel strat forecasts?) or is this in response to a possible moving of the PV from Canada to our East?

[Day 10]

Whichever way you look at it, all roads appear to be heading for cold. Could be a good second half of January coming up and indeed further on than that.

[Seasonality]

Deepest FI but still nice to see Europe in the freezer.