Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Snow?
Paul

Model output discussion - into 2018

Recommended Posts

3 hours ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Funny you should mention the 20th Jan Teits. Both my late mum and my grandmother always used to say that winter 'proper' didn't really begin in southern England until around the 20th Jan. Maybe skewed by memories of 1947 but has often proved the case

 fully agree with this. Winter on the South Coast is Jan, Feb, march. In December warm channel waters are too moderating. Good news, we're only 1 week into winter.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

where does it say showers turning wintry feb?

I dont see that on the update?

Showery conditions following on from the west with showers turning wintry in places.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looks a lot more interesting next week with cold zonality, looking forward to it!..chance of some snow and widespread frosts..❄❄❄❄❄❄:)

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Longtimelurker said:

There is no Continental air over England, its 200 miles East in the North sea. So I don't see how an Easterly is guaranteed when there is more confidence for the Westerly and you state confidence is low for this. Out to T300 and its a Westerly ,not once has an Easterly shown up to this point. Where is the guaranteed coming from?

Boundary looks like the Irish sea to me.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Snowy L said:

Boundary looks like the Irish sea to me.

A man that knows.

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

72 hours Aperge

Theta E charts continental air & look at the wind barbs over England.

Not sure how hard it is to understand.

46E517B6-B4C5-436F-A215-EFFDA7211128.thumb.png.7a0fed3184a657e652f20d6f3dcbf135.png

Can't say that I've been too impressed with the easterly weather thus far, all it means for around here is cold, damp, gloomy half lit days. Is there any likelihood of seeing a clearer, dryer element to it or is this as good as it's likely to get?

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, jethro said:

Can't say that I've been too impressed with the easterly weather thus far, all it means for around here is cold, damp, gloomy half lit days. Is there any likelihood of seeing a clearer, dryer element to it or is this as good as it's likely to get?

I think winds are supposed to go more southerly tomorrow, should be milder in the south especially at 8/10c with cloud breaking to allow sunny intervals but then fog appears to become the main problem further south after midweek as winds fall light and where mist / fog /  low cloud persists it will be cold further s / e..lasting into the weekend:) 

Edited by Frosty.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

A man that knows.

Oh man i hope evrything shifts further west steve😂😂!!there is defo an easterly element to the wind from 72 hour to 120 hours on both ukmo and ecm!!has there everr been a time where a cold pool has suddenly.appeared on the continent 3 days before an easterly was forecasted!!at the moment theres no real cold to tap into!!

Edited by shaky
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, jethro said:

Can't say that I've been too impressed with the easterly weather thus far, all it means for around here is cold, damp, gloomy half lit days. Is there any likelihood of seeing a clearer, dryer element to it or is this as good as it's likely to get?

It’s a more modified flow from the SE flow sourced from the far south of Europe which is why There’s no bite-

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Showery conditions following on from the west with showers turning wintry in places.

sorry Feb you were correct, Gavin D is posting yesterdays update ...

and its a nice little upgrade too- i wouldnt be suprised if places with altitude got a right dumping!!

Edited by northwestsnow
  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I think winds are supposed to go more southerly tomorrow, should be milder in the south especially at 8/10c with cloud breaking to allow sunny intervals but then fog appears to become the main problem further south after midweek as winds fall light and where mist / fog /  low cloud persists it will be cold further s / e..lasting into the weekend:) 

So not a lot to look forward to then, more Mendip murk. If only it would freeze and the sun come out, then we'd have a spectacular hoare frost. One can but dream.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

It’s a more modified flow from the SE flow sourced from the far south of Europe which is why There’s no bite-

Don't know about bite, more like a slavering, soggy lick from an old mutt with stinky breath.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

There is a reason why the model always aligns to the M4 & that’s to do with gridpoints on that map - there’s probably a line of gridpoints plotted along that motorway from London to Bristol on the GFS, with another line about 15 miles south & north with the next line being the south coast & above being Oxford across to wales - because there’s often a south westerly flow ahead of cold westerlies the model alligns milder air along the southerly gridpoints & the cut off line generally places around the M4- hence it’s always kicking about on the GFS...

But more often than not, it actually translates into reality, the damn thing really is a cut off point for marginal events. I can only guess the Severn estuary is to blame. China stops taking our plastic waste and we have to now puzzle over what to do with it, build a great big barrier at the mouth of the Severn, back fill it with the waste, should fairly soon remove the problem.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1024mb pressure over London for Friday. Has been edging west. Will the 12z continue the trend?

I think small changes that have been taken place in the Arctic due north of Norway will help spin that cold over Siberia in our direction. Will the 12z bear this out?

0z                                                             6z

h850t850eu.pngh850t850eu.png

Probably not!   But a man can hope!! :)

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, jethro said:

So not a lot to look forward to then, more Mendip murk.

Indeed, but next week should bring some cleaner, clearer polar air to clear the mendip murk if the models are right.:)

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Frosty. said:

Indeed, but next week should bring some cleaner, clearer polar air to clear the mendip murk if the models are right.:)

Hallelujah!

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
56 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

72 hours Aperge

Theta E charts continental air & look at the wind barbs over England.

Not sure how hard it is to understand.

46E517B6-B4C5-436F-A215-EFFDA7211128.thumb.png.7a0fed3184a657e652f20d6f3dcbf135.png

Great post Steve continental flow feeling quite cold there.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

1024mb pressure over London for Friday. Has been edging west. Will the 12z continue the trend?

I think small changes that have been taken place in the Arctic due north of Norway will help spin that cold over Siberia in our direction. Will the 12z bear this out?

0z                                                             6z

h850t850eu.pngh850t850eu.png

Probably not!   But a man can hope!! :)

Well the colder air is edging West to be fair. I doubt very, very much it would land a direct blow, but by cooling the continent it will give added bite to any drift from the east. I think you're onto something! :)

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

There is a reason why the model always aligns to the M4 & that’s to do with gridpoints on that map - there’s probably a line of gridpoints plotted along that motorway from London to Bristol on the GFS, with another line about 15 miles south & north with the next line being the south coast & above being Oxford across to wales - because there’s often a south westerly flow ahead of cold westerlies the model alligns milder air along the southerly gridpoints & the cut off line generally places around the M4- hence it’s always kicking about on the GFS...

Same thing with the Netherlands, cold always manages to stop at the German and Belgian border 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, nicknacknoo said:

 fully agree with this. Winter on the South Coast is Jan, Feb, march. In December warm channel waters are too moderating. Good news, we're only 1 week into winter.

Similarly, my nan used to say that February & March were our snowy months here on the south coast of Wales as that's when the Bristol Channel sea temperatures are at their coldest and in February especially the strength of the sun is still fairly weak. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
58 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Just been comparing some charts.

Look at the 0Z GFS a couple of days ago.

gfs-0-168.png

Compare with todays ECM for the same period.

ECM1-120.GIF?09-12

What myself and Steve M have been saying has been proven correct with regards to the progressive modelling of the Atlantic against the high over Scandi. Not saying a convective E,ly is on the way but maybe still time for further shifts W.

You mean  the timing of when the Atlantic pushes through has been pushed back by the models underestimating the strength of the block..

however I don’t think the block is going to win out?,if it did then the meto would lose all credibility in their medium range forecasts.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×