Model output discussion - into 2018

[sorepaw1]

2 minutes ago, andymusic said:

meanwhile on the models..............

Meanwhile what on the models 

[TEITS]

23 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

So for the extended range, the focus shifting to Greenland as a potential source of cold before a possible shift in the focus back towards Scandinavia.

I know our methods are vastly different i.e yours is based on science whereas mine is a method I have used since the age of 10. However your post above is exactly the same thinking as myself.

At least those in the USA won't be hogging all the cold weather!

Edited January 9, 2018 by TEITS

[TEITS]

1 minute ago, Rocheydub said:

Some people posting what they want to win popularity contests, not what the current NWP are showing. Very childish!

Lets be honest the model output beyond 5 days isn't always likely to be correct. Having members different interpretations of how it may evolve is what makes this thread so wonderful.

I think members should just appreciate we have different biases, live in different locations and just enjoy the coming very interesting spell of weather.

[sparky71a]

2 minutes ago, TEITS said:

I know our methods are vastly different i.e yours is based on science whereas mine is a method I have used since the age of 10. However your post above is exactly the same thinking as myself.

At least those yanks won't be hogging all the cold weather!

This forum is viewable across the globe, I'm not sure "those yanks" is very appropriate... 

[andymusic]

the Westerly becomes the new Easterly lol lol

Edited January 9, 2018 by andymusic

[TEITS]

5 minutes ago, Tanden Sparkster said:

This forum is viewable across the globe, I'm not sure "those yanks" is very appropriate... 

No offence mean't. I have edited the post.

[karyo]

4 minutes ago, Tanden Sparkster said:

This forum is viewable across the globe, I'm not sure "those yanks" is very appropriate... 

I think it is quite an acceptable term. They have basketball team called yankees or something like that.

Also, the term is also used in quality newspaper articles such as this one:

http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/yanks-coming-manchester-soon-uks-14128282

[alexisj9]

8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes andy GFS still promoting a snow PM flow with snow pushing inland quite widely

To be fair from that pic the stuff in the east doesn't look like it's associated with the rain bands. Is there still an easterly draw going on here, or left over from the low before. If this pm flow has some help from the east too, could be very good all round.

[mulzy]

Maybe it's a bit of IMBYism on my part, but I find the output, though interesting from a synoptic point of view, very underwhelming in terms of delivery.  Maybe it's just me...

 

Edited January 9, 2018 by mulzy

[feb1991blizzard]

Anyone guess another reason (the most important IMO) why the 6z output is very interesting.

[claret047]

Good morning everyone.

As a lot less knowledgeable than a lot of members that post on here I would be grateful if someone could answer the following question.

As Glacier Point and TEITS have pointed out we are likely to receive a cold/very cold polar maritime plunge and then possibly a resurgence of the Scandinavian high. Most of any precipitation in this set up would be in areas facing north and west, and hopefully of snow. We in the southeast would probably not do very well under such a setup. If, for the sake of argument the polar maritime weather travelled as far as Poland and then with a strengthening high pressure developing over Scandinavia could this under its southern boundary force the low pressure system back over us. Should it do so would there be much precipitation on it and would it be cold enough to fall as snow, or would it be modified by what has been a warm winter thus far over central eastern Europe and the North Sea. Alternatively would the air be cold enough going over the comparatively warm North  Sea act like a snow machine like that which occurs by the Great Lakes in the USA?

Thank you

Kind regards

Dave

[mulzy]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Anyone guess another reason (the most important IMO) why the 6z output is very interesting.

Lowish heights over mainland Europe?

[N/A]

1 hour ago, Draig Goch said:

The charts aren't showing it but there's currently snow grains blowing around in parts of South Wales (2C). I think we could get some transient snow later as rain moves in from the west. It's sometimes a very good set up for us on the coast when mild, moist Atlantic air bumps into all this cold air that's been sat over us for a few days. There's hopes later on! 

Sounds interesting, I'm in a cold, damp Angle Bay today, in the far SW of Pembrokeshire it'll be the first place for that front to arrive, so I'll let you know when it hits us and if it's falling as rain, sleet or snow 

[Man With Beard]

EC clusters - only one cluster between D11-D15, which is never satisfying when compared to the individual members.

Studying the ensemble members together at D10, the UK outlook is dominated by a large trough but no agreement on where it will actually be - variations between slight west of the UK, slightly east, or split in two with part west / part east (would be interesting as could maintain easterly element). My best guess based on these would be trough centred slap bang over the UK, not moving fast and not allowing any great influence from the north or south - potentially allowing a short northerly on its back-edge.

By D15, I would ignore the cluster view because there's actually quite a bit of scatter for the UK region. One thing is very clear - no return to full zonality looks likely. It looks quite evenly matched between the Atlantic and ridges forming at mid-latitudes and possibly weakly at high-latitudes. So far this winter, that sign at D15 has often allowed something more amplified to develop as the clock ticks down.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

18 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

Some people posting what they want to win popularity contests, not what the current NWP are showing. Very childish!

Ay, wonder if the 'rep/like' system is removed it will continue, some posters fish 4 likes, I certainly don't

[Troubleatmill]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Anyone guess another reason (the most important IMO) why the 6z output is very interesting.

Because at around t324 it shows a two hour window for a snow shower in low lying areas of lancashire?

[Johnp]

6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Anyone guess another reason (the most important IMO) why the 6z output is very interesting.

Stratosphere very toasty!

[Timmytour]

20 minutes ago, TEITS said:

I know our methods are vastly different i.e yours is based on science whereas mine is a method I have used since the age of 10. However your post above is exactly the same thinking as myself.

At least those in the USA won't be hogging all the cold weather!

Often seen it said that once the cold gets in, it can prove harder than the models would have us believe to shift it. 

Well they got rid of that cold in the US pretty quick!

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Johnp said:

Stratosphere very toasty!

Yes but not only a significant warming, this one at the top of the strat pushes the vortex completely off the pole, admittedly into a less favourable position but don't worry about that detail yet - the warming still going strong at the end.

[weirpig]

well again the 6z isnt without interest  however i remain very sceptical   about widespread Wintry showers  being brought by a  more westerly regime   However looking a Uppers etc  it could certainly happen.    Gfs  shows snow for areas  of ( wait for it)  the North West  from as early as  150hrs    then expanding to more areas as the run goes on.    And then by 240ish   most of the country gets a blanket of snow  apart from London and the East Anglia.  All very much up in the air at the moment   however  things at the moment are looking quite promising

[Nick F]

18 minutes ago, Tanden Sparkster said:

This forum is viewable across the globe, I'm not sure "those yanks" is very appropriate... 

Indeed, I have seen a few posts on US weather forums referencing Netweather, particularly stuff from MOD and our world renowned Strat thread which has much expert input.

back to the models, GFS pretty persistent in bringing a protracted PM flow, with plenty of potential for snow in there, particularly northern, central and western areas, but little point analysing snow charts this far off.

given the models seem to be weakening the tropospheric PV longer term, we may eventually see the troughing extending SE from Greenland bringing the cold PM flow relax and perhaps disrupt into Europe as a cut-off low, if we see the flow amplify over the Atlantic, which opens up the idea of height rises to the N and NE later in the month.

[TEITS]

6 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

Often seen it said that once the cold gets in, it can prove harder than the models would have us believe to shift it. 

Well they got rid of that cold in the US pretty quick!

For the UK that relates to a combination of the Atlantic bumping into blocking and the cold dense air. The US is very unique in how airmasses can quickly change.  Some places in the US can experience an incredible drop or rise in temp within hrs!

If ever came into money I would move to the US!

[SMU]

Confidence should still be on the low side regarding the Atlantic making it past the Meridian

more members increasing the continental flow leading to a much more amplified track west of the UK

Very cold for England that chart

subsequent Atlantic profile

The models still uncertain between 72-120 let alone banking the NW flow... - at least some sort of Easterly / South Easterly is guaranteed now....

S

[Light Without Heat]

1 minute ago, alexisj9 said:

To be fair from that pic the stuff in the east doesn't look like it's associated with the rain bands. Is there still an easterly draw going on here, or left over from the low before. If this pm flow has some help from the east too, could be very good all round.

Yeah I was thinking exactly the same - seems odd for that amount progged in to fall in the North East - It's almost a countrywide event..

[Longtimelurker]

10 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Confidence should still be on the low side regarding the Atlantic making it past the Meridian

more members increasing the continental flow leading to a much more amplified track west of the UK

Very cold for England that chart

subsequent Atlantic profile

The models still uncertain between 72-120 let alone banking the NW flow... - at least some sort of Easterly / South Easterly is guaranteed now....

S

There is no Continental air over England, its 200 miles East in the North sea. So I don't see how an Easterly is guaranteed when there is more confidence for the Westerly and you state confidence is low for this. Out to T300 and its a Westerly ,not once has an Easterly shown up to this point. Where is the guaranteed coming from?

Edited January 9, 2018 by Longtimelurker