Model output discussion - into 2018

[Nick F]

Does seem to be a regional bias to thinking how the models will pan out looking at alot of posters locations!

1. If you live anywhere but the SE of England = polar maritime westerly / northwesterlies likely to win out

2. If you live in the SE of England = the Atlantic may not win out because blocking is underestimated, the Atlantic break through / Pm flow is not in the reliable timeframe anyway, look east at cold continental flow, etc.

Me, I think there's a good chance that the Atlantic trough axis will remain intact and push through close to the north of UK, with a PM flow ensuing, but it maybe more delayed (day or 2) than models indicate, increasingly cold surface flow off continent before then.

 

 

[SLEETY]

Tonight’s gfs 18z is  very reminiscent of jan1984 if you look at the archives.

infact it’s actually colder than jan 84.

i actually hope it verifies just to see what the snowfall amounts would be in the Highlands of Scotland.

There were insane amounts in 84 with 30ft snowdrifts in the highlands

this look even more insane ,bring it on

[OfficialKevWX]

4 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Does seem to be a regional bias to thinking how the models will pan out looking at alot of posters locations!

1. If you live anywhere but the SE of England = polar maritime westerly / northwesterlies likely to win out

2. If you live in the SE of England = the Atlantic may not win out because blocking is underestimated, the Atlantic break through / Pm flow is not in the reliable timeframe anyway, look east at cold continental flow, etc.

Me, I think there's a good chance that the Atlantic trough axis will remain intact and push through close to the north of UK, with a PM flow ensuing, but it maybe more delayed (day or 2) than models indicate, increasingly cold surface flow off continent before then.

 

 

Thank you for noticing this, lots of IMBYism to whatever delivers snow to their neck of the woods, not very helpful for newcomers to understand what is happening... The models aren’t doing too well either which kinda causes this issue..

Edited January 8, 2018 by OfficialKevWX

[Cheshire Freeze]

Certainly no IMBYism from my perspective. I live on low ground so PM flows are never certain to deliver. 

I would be just as happy with a deep cold PC flow. 

[ukpaul]

Some of us benefit equally from both strong westerlies and also easterlies, being slap band in the middle, the only thing I don't want is the middle ground where both cancel each other out and nothing happens! The models are pretty much decided on a westerly regime now, anyway, so it's making the most of whatever is likely.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, ukpaul said:

Some of us benefit equally from both strong westerlies and also easterlies, being slap band in the middle, the only thing I don't want is the middle ground where both cancel each other out and nothing happens! The models are pretty much decided on a westerly regime now, anyway, so it's making the most of whatever is likely.

Exactly.... 

As I've been saying, no man's land benefits no one. 

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

16 minutes ago, ukpaul said:

Some of us benefit equally from both strong westerlies and also easterlies, being slap band in the middle, the only thing I don't want is the middle ground where both cancel each other out and nothing happens! The models are pretty much decided on a westerly regime now, anyway, so it's making the most of whatever is likely.

Same here really.  I have no real preference on direction as long as the outcome produces cold and snow.  I fear we may be 'stuck in the middle' for a little while longer yet though!

[Duane S.]

I continue to watch this evolve with huge fascination.

I’ve noticed waters getting muddied a bit on here though. Any newbies must be have their brains fried by all this right now. Posters being chastised and harangued for ‘hope-casting’ an Easterly. Well, yes but no.

The Easterly that was on the ECM and METO, the potential convective one that was being shown for this coming weekend, is not going to happen as it was shown. I guess there has to be an outside chance of the block backing west to influence us late weekend / early next week as some trough disruption occurs towards the end of this week but it would be a monumental miss by the models, as none are currently seriously interested in it. Whilst I can see how it could evolve, it would need to start showing up in the next day or so for any hope of that and with the Atlantic as it is, very unlikely indeed.

However, I’ve seen more than enough to believe that wishing the block away is going to prove both futile and the wrong thing to want to do, longterm. It may look like it’s a waste sat out there to our east taunting us (which is where it will very likely remain for a while yet) but the signs are getting stronger by the day that it’s likely going to be a waiting game with patience being rewarded as we go into the final third of the month. A low amplification phase looks set to change. There must be scope for a decent to possibly huge wave 2 event occurring later in the month, which could cause untold disturbances to the vortex and it getting its own way. With the heights floating around the Arctic as they are, the E QBO and the teleconnection updates, we have to consider that we have every chance of being on the cusp of something very interesting indeed.

Before that though, and potentially equally exciting, is the cold zonality theme. Which to be fair was first touted by the GFS a few days back, is now still showing strong at around D8. This in itself looks quite something, with the thicknesses being shown. Jan 84 definitely springs to mind in that respect and nowhere would be immune to snow, even down here. Not something that I’d normally say with weather coming from that direction!

All to play for. Expect it all to go wrong, yeah it probably will ? but also embrace the ride and hope for once we get lucky or, if it transpires likeI think it could, that we don’t get unlucky!. I get the feeling the ride is going to get even bumpier as we head towards midmonth and beyond in here ?

[A Frayed Knot]

1980'S WINTER SPECIAL IS UPON US (BEJAM)

LOOKING FORWARD TO @Steve Murr AND @Catacol ON NEXT WEEKS WEATHER SYPNOSTICS ' NO BEAST IN SIGHT .

 

[Daniel*]

GFS has a tame continental flow up to the start of the new working week for SE England I suspect there will be severe frosts by how how slack the flow is, at least wintry dependant on your take.

PM incursion could have some longevity to it upgraded at T180 colder upper air temps and more widespread.

[Daniel*]

Likewise UKMO keeps it cold continental up to the start of the new working week for the east. The lack of cold air is quite abysmal pity as this low could have been a snow maker for the far S.

[Daniel*]

Wintry possibilities again being modelled possibly just about anywhere that trough nestling into Europe quite striking this is for us coldies, with height rises in interesting places, cold air, and very cyclonic flow.

 

[Mucka]

The NW would get buried if GFS 00z came off but a sustained NW flow with -5 to -8 uppers seems very unlikely.

And just for good measure the arctic high joins forces with an Atlantic ridge to keep things interesting in deep FI

Should of been a pub run.

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

21 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

GFS has a tame continental flow up to the start of the new working week for SE England I suspect there will be severe frosts by how how slack the flow is, at least wintry dependant on your take.

PM incursion could have some longevity to it upgraded at T180 colder upper air temps and more widespread.

GFS is very nice through FI

The trend for a continued -AO is gathering pace

Plenty of winter for everyone on this run...and I suspect this may be just the curtain raiser...

[Daniel*]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

GFS is very nice through FI

The trend for a continued -AO is gathering pace

Plenty of winter for everyone on this run...and I suspect this may be just the curtain raiser...

I must admit I’ve given up on the easterly we all desire for now, it would take a drastic turnaround. When I call it quits you know it’s not good! At least what’s becoming increasingly clear we’ll see the quite dull pattern replaced by a mobile cold flow. Some dynamic weather beats this stagnant pattern we’re seeing currently, even I think I may see some snow from this. I’m liking the continuity further ahead from GFS long may it continue. 

[SLEETY]

-8 hpa Approaching from the west.Thats unusual and would bring snow to many.Is the strength of the wind stopping the moderation of the air as it crosses the Atlantic Ocean?

[Daniel*]

1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

-8 hpa Approaching from the west.Thats unusual and would bring snow to many.Is the strength of the wind stopping the moderation of the air as it crosses the Atlantic Ocean?

Not so much the strength that will add to the rawness it’s the source off the Greenland icecap very cold. 

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=6

 

in fantasy world things  could get interesting  after191 hr

[doctor32]

7 hours ago, booferking said:

Ireland will be in southerly winds tomorrow with a band of rain pushing in from the Atlantic then on towards western parts of Scotland & England.

This has been modelled for quite sometime from gfs.

it has... But thats as far as it gets.

Point i am trying to make is that the point when the pv trough makes it past the uk is delayed every run on nearly all model runs. We seem to have been looking at 96 to 144hr mark since the turn of the year lol.

I for one accept no true deep cold easterly is coming that would deliver the white stuff. But do beleive the block is putting up a good fight and with every attempt from the atlantic things slightly change in the outcome there after.

To be honest, i want it to happen sooner rather than later... Benign weather does nothing to me 

[karlos1983]

Nice overnight runs so far and some severe cold over Siberia in fl on the gfs!

I’m glad we are over Easterly-gate, I For one never expected the easterly to happen, which I documented on several occasions ? ?

[doctor32]

Cross-model agreement on Trough making a breakthrough @ 144hrs... however GFS sends it more to the north...

 

UKMO and EC send it further south over the uk...

[snowbunting]

Ensembles suggesting a cool down next few weeks...  NWly flow.. cool/cold polar maritime airflow. No beast from the east (yet). 

[carinthian]

Morning all. All models this morning keep the block in place to start the weekend. At 96h still will be a cold surface flow with an easterly component. Overall these latest runs are a bit less progressive than yesterdays. Expect further changes today in the shorter term outputs as the block looks very resilient . At models by the medium term 144t show the Atlantic trough making headway, but the position, timing and crucial alignment will change from run to run. However, its the period of resistance to the block out to 120h that shows greatest interest to me  and looks unresolved yet as to where we will be looking to by weekend. 

C

C

Edited January 9, 2018 by carinthian

[shaky]

9 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Morning all. All models this morning keep the block in place to start the weekend. At 96h still will be a cold surface flow with an easterly component. Overall these latest runs are a bit less progressive than yesterdays. Expect further changes today in the shorter term outputs as the block looks very resilient . At models by the medium term 144t show the Atlantic trough making headway, but the position, timing and crucial alignment will change from run to run. However, its the period of resistance to the block out to 120h that shows greatest interest to me  and looks unresolved yet as to where we will be looking to by weekend. 

C

C

Yes carinthian just compared yesterdays 120 hour chart from ukmo and ecm to todays 96 hour charts and the block is definately stronger and further west by around 200 miles!!yes the atlantic will break through but we could have a snowy battle before hand!!

[oldsnowywizard]

I have been a member for a long time.. i dont post that much as I live in Switzerland..however my years of chasing the snow flake for the UK keeps me tapped in to the daily charts, forecasts, wishes, arguments and let downs. I am exceptionally disappointed with the childish undetone and verbal rants of some of the posters (some who should know better). You all are exceptionally lucky to have people on here who provide their THOUGHTS regularly on their OPINION of what COULD happen. They might be RIGHT, they might be WRONG... but they make this forum interesting becuase they are taking their time to give everyone ideas, knowledge and experience. Please have RESPECT for posters and do not start to antagonize becuase something didnt go the way they said. THE WEATHER DOES WHAT THE WEATHER DOES. 

A huge thanks to the members for their contributions over the years