Model output discussion - into 2018

[northwestsnow]

6Z is another polar maritime fest

850s -5 at times and the dew point seems to be negative for periods of time so places in the north with altitude will do OK- im sure ..

Edited January 8, 2018 by northwestsnow

[northwestsnow]

Eventually GFS flattens out the pattern but could be some fun for a while

[MP-R]

8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

6Z is another polar maritime fest

850s -5 at times and the dew point seems to be negative for periods of time so places in the north with altitude will do OK- im sure ..

Yes, something I forgot to add, potentially a week of essentially northwesterly winds from next Monday if the Atlantic breaks through. 

[Snowman.]

46 minutes ago, EastAnglian said:

My fear as well but if the jet goes NW - SE as some have indicated wont that push energy under the block and at the least stop it sinking to NW France and the long southerly draw/endless mild mush?

I have similar fears or we have lows running through the channel but all they do is bring cold rain as the continent is mild. Another example of good synoptics but weak upper air temps seems to be the thing for this year.

[Dean E]

9 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

I have similar fears or we have lows running through the channel but all they do is bring cold rain as the continent is mild. Another example of good synoptics but weak upper air temps seems to be the thing for this year.

I think we all need reminding that the continent will not take long to cool down, if colder uppers move into the area. Will only take a few days at best! 

GFS shows colder uppers moving to the East at 192hrs, will start to feel much colder there soon with snow cover increasing (for the first time this winter I may add in most places)

Remember you do not need -5c or lower 850's for snow, that is especially true for our neighbours..

Edited January 8, 2018 by Dean E

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Dean E said:

I think we all need reminding that the continent will not take long to cool down, if colder uppers move into the area. Will only take a few days at best! 

GFS shows colder uppers moving to the East at 192hrs, will start to feel much colder there soon with snow cover increasing (for the first time this winter I may add in most places)

Remember you do not need -5c or lower for snow, that is especially true for our neighbours..

Agreed!

Think its easy to get downbeat that the easterly is dead but there is still interest in the models..

[Snowmadsam]

I think we sort of need this cold zonal signal to transpire in order to move the trend onwards, if that makes sense? It would get heights lower into Europe. Teleconnection experts such as @Tamara and @Glacier Point have spoken how prospects look better later in the month, it will be interesting to monitor these and see if they transpire as hoped

[weirpig]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Agreed!

Think its easy to get downbeat that the easterly is dead but there is still interest in the models..

There certainly is!.  Very strange small island we live on.  with amazing amounts of Temperature variations across such a short distance.  For me this winter as been great but for others its been a let down.  Unfortunatly for people down south you really need a easterly to produce anything of any note  further north  Pm shots will do just fine  ( with of course appropiate uppers)   i expect if the models are currently correct  with The flow from a more Northwesterly location then areas midlands north could again be looking at snowfall.   certainly thinks to keep an eye on

[mulzy]

1 minute ago, weirpig said:

There certainly is!.  Very strange small island we live on.  with amazing amounts of Temperature variations across such a short distance.  For me this winter as been great but for others its been a let down.  Unfortunatly for people down south you really need a easterly to produce anything of any note  further north  Pm shots will do just fine  ( with of course appropiate uppers)   i expect if the models are currently correct  with The flow from a more Northwesterly location then areas midlands north could again be looking at snowfall.   certainly thinks to keep an eye on

Yep, good summary.  Very bleak for the south but upland areas from the Midland northwards stand a good chance of wintriness.

Think we have to go through this kind of phase before anything more exciting turns up - still plenty of winter to go...

[karyo]

9 minutes ago, Snowmadsam said:

I think we sort of need this cold zonal signal to transpire in order to move the trend onwards, if that makes sense? It would get heights lower into Europe. Teleconnection experts such as @Tamara and @Glacier Point have spoken how prospects look better later in the month, it will be interesting to monitor these and see if they transpire as hoped

It fits well with Ian Pennel's winter forecast. His update from yesterday is mouthwatering for end of January and in particular February.

Back to the 6z, as others have said a lot of polar maritime air for next week. It seems the cold air has been pushed back a bit thanks to the Russian high but it is still there. 

[karlos1983]

Yes, I can confirm for those of us in the south, (exceptions being areas across the south that have altitude on their side) this winter has been Pants! (So far)On a par with the past few. This isn’t a moan, it is what it is, perhaps that’s why we’ve been more optimistic (desperate)about the easterly.

however!!! Northerlies as the winter deepens can produce for the south and have done previously, I remember many snow events and there’s no way they’ve all come off of an easterly setup, we’ve not had that many easterlies! 

So I don’t buy into this “the south only gets snow when the east winds blow” its simply not true!

 

 

 

Edited January 8, 2018 by karlos1983

[london-snow]

5 minutes ago, karyo said:

It fits well with Ian Pennel's winter forecast. His update from yesterday is mouthwatering for end of January and in particular February.

Back to the 6z, as others have said a lot of polar maritime air for next week. It seems the cold air has been pushed back a bit thanks to the Russian high but it is still there. 

Would you happen to have a link to view his thoughts Karyo? 

Thanks ?

[Man With Beard]

Overall I still see a knife-edge situation on whether the NE heights are able to get colder weather to the UK. The UKMO, GFS and ECM are just the wrong side at T96/T120 today - I wouldn't want to categorically say an upgrade wasn't possible.

Later on, a few more opportunities for colder weather to get to the UK on the clusters:

T216: op cluster

The op run cluster gets a temporary easterly flow - if the trough in the Atlantic can also slide and keep out the nose of Azores heights, it may prolong the easterly flow (and we know that an easterly just needs time to go cold in mid-January.)

T240: cluster 2

a pretty good position for an easterly

T360:

this time we're looking NW for a build of heights on two of the three clusters

Or is this "clusting" at straws?

[karyo]

4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Yes, I can confirm for those of us in the south, (exceptions being areas across the south that have altitude on their side) this winter has been Pants! (So far)On a par with the past few. This isn’t a moan, it is what it is, perhaps that’s why we’ve been more optimistic (desperate)about the easterly.

however!!! Northerlies as the winter deepens can produce for the south and have done previously, I remember many snow events and there’s no way they’ve all come off of an easterly setup, we’ve not had that many easterlies! 

So I don’t buy into this “the south only gets snow when the east winds blow” its simply not true!

 

 

 

I agree! If you get an organised shortwave running along the channel and plenty of polar maritime air around it, you can get snow. You just need a bit of luck as with most snow events in this country.

[karyo]

3 minutes ago, london-snow said:

Would you happen to have a link to view his thoughts Karyo? 

Thanks ?

Here it is: 

 

[Singularity]

As many anticipated, a 'proper easterly' outcome has (at last?) been pretty much relegated to the realm of what-if-it-had (but some kind of draw-in from the east into LP systems remains a possibility).

So attention turns back to how well the blocking can be retained to the NE, with extensions across the Arctic, while the jet aligns NW-SE through the UK. 

In this respect,  GFS is falling short during the second week, while ECM is producing some satisfying charts. This is all about driving sufficient wave-2 action (warming from two origins 'pinching' the vortex) to drive a split-vortex SSW rather than the (often much) less effective displacement SSW that results from wave-1 action. GFS keeps homing on on the second type, but ECM looks good to my eye for setting in motion the first - this being what many experts on here are anticipating there to be a good likelihood of as the atmospheric angular momentum budget cycles around.

For us lowland far-southerners it has been another winter of watching and waiting, seemingly endlessly, for conditions that will produce lying snow for even a few hours (but ideally much longer!). The 'proper easterly' hopes (in vain) related to the fact that the NW-SE jet alignment struggles to achieve such a state of affairs in this region, meaning that it represents an extension to the wait rather than a means of scoring some snow from an alternative source in advance.

It does appear that 2nd half Jan and probably into Feb will be the best chance for this unfortunate group of the season so far, but as usual this is highly conditional, reliant in particular on both the vortex being taken down in a useful manner and tropical forcing working to align the resulting pieces in the right way for us. 

So what can I say - hang in there, we might get lucky in the end, at least once in five years is not much to ask is it? 

Edited January 8, 2018 by Singularity

[london-snow]

13 minutes ago, karyo said:

Here it is: 

 

Many thanks ?

[winterof79]

29 minutes ago, karyo said:

It fits well with Ian Pennel's winter forecast. His update from yesterday is mouthwatering for end of January and in particular February.

Back to the 6z, as others have said a lot of polar maritime air for next week. It seems the cold air has been pushed back a bit thanks to the Russian high but it is still there. 

Do you have a link to this gentleman's thoughts? 

 

EDIT :Thanks for that Kayro

Edited January 8, 2018 by winterof79

[Nick L]

2 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

Did this happen?

"The month will be dominated by deep depressions racing east-north-east from Newfoundland towards Iceland.  These strong westerlies will bring rain, gales and relatively mild temperatures across the UK with regularity and daytime temperatures of 10˚C or even higher will be common across the English and Welsh lowlands during the month"

 

While you are correct, if you wouldn't mind discussing it in the relevant thread it would be much appreciated. I'd move the posts myself but it's a royal faff on my phone. 

[The Enforcer]

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

And it’s out of date following the 00z run 

Which will also be out of date by the time the next T+96 and T+120 fax charts come out.

[Yarmy]

1 minute ago, Nick L said:

While you are correct, if you wouldn't mind discussing it in the relevant thread it would be much appreciated. I'd move the posts myself but it's a royal faff on my phone. 

Ha, yes, but I couldn't let that one pass. Apologies.

[Nick L]

7 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

Ha, yes, but I couldn't let that one pass. Apologies.

 I've moved the discussion into there, not as painful as I'd expected. As you were

[Spah1]

Nothing is decided yet. 

 

[DOdo]

14 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Nothing is decided yet. 

That huge block to the East of us, aint going nowhere too fast. The models have continually under estimated the strength of this block. an Easterly cannot be ruled out even at this stage. Next few runs hopefully should give us a clearer picture as to where things are going.  An Easterly isnt certainly dead and gone

 

 

[Geordiesnow]

Been watching the models fairly consistantly recently and whilst some sort of easterly flow could happen, I have yet seen much evidence of anything cold/snowy that could come out of it and the models in the longer term suggests the Atlantic will eventually win the battle. The problem with the block is that its too far East and the models are not all that keen to have any undercutting troughing in Western Europe either so we end up in the no man's land of a strong southerly wind and nothing particularly cold at all, probably even more so as Eastern Europe is below average on snow cover for example.

Its the classic of do you want the block to stay around incase something could happen(history suggests probably not) or have it sinking and starting all over again type of thing. Hopefully future model runs have it more of an influence on our weather than they are showing at the moment.