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Model output discussion - into 2018


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

EC on the other hand not looking very nice at 144 :(

Hope after all this excitement and anticipation we don't get soaked...

ECH1-144.GIF?08-12

The block looks sunk and the Atlantic profile does not look great..

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Posted
  • Location: Newton Aycliffe, County Durham... 90m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow and thunderstorms :)
  • Location: Newton Aycliffe, County Durham... 90m asl

Seems like we are waiting for ever to see atlantic breakthrough at the moment. GFS had it breaking through tomorrow this time last week, just 4 days ago it had it breaking through this friday...

now its this time next week potentially, before it fully gets past us.

Not saying it not going to happen, just pointing out how difficult models cope with a block to east.

Edit... EC going for this weekend too.

Something needs to happen as i hate no mans land.

Edited by doctor32
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Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC on the other hand not looking very nice at 144 :(

Hope after all this excitement and anticipation we don't get soaked...

ECH1-144.GIF?08-12

The block looks sunk and the Atlantic profile does not look great..

Think its  time to forget the easterly and move on.! Best chance of snow from northwest. 

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
4 minutes ago, snowice said:

Think its  time to forget the easterly and move on.! Best chance of snow from northwest. 

We nor the models have no say in it, it's nature that decides

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Posted
  • Location: Norway
  • Location: Norway
10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC on the other hand not looking very nice at 144 :(

Hope after all this excitement and anticipation we don't get soaked...

ECH1-144.GIF?08-12

The block looks sunk and the Atlantic profile does not look great..

pls wait a little time - the excitement isnt over later January  ( i said early posts i hope for a fresh start with first PV progress in west Europe)

65.gif

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Posted
  • Location: West London
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: West London
6 hours ago, steveinsussex said:

im not getting into this but you said most; plus it was very localised and dependent on elevation

I’m at around 40m asl, it wasn’t dependent on elevation really.. 

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Posted
  • Location: Isle Of Lewis
  • Weather Preferences: Wild!
  • Location: Isle Of Lewis

Really quite interesting models... not much agreement past 5days and the spread of the GEFS ensembles say it all in terms of pressure for the UK. 

GFS 0z has the High over us sink SE wards towards Greece and Turkey by T192 , the ECM has it migrating in the opposite direction to form an area of high pressure with the greenie high to the north of us. 

Just wondering if the low 956mb to the north of us will verify.. I suspect not. 

If we get a mixture of the models, we might have fun and games with high pressure of Scandanvia meeting the atlantic onslaught. 

Interesting times ahead. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The way I see the latest models regarding this week, cold start, rain midweek and gradually becoming less cold / milder.:)

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Posted
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GFS and ECM fantastic in the 168 onwards range if you like rain.

Sadly, I have to agree. 

The output at the moment remains poor if its blocked and cold we’re looking for. It’s cold, but the wrong side of cold and wet but there doesn’t seem to be anything on the horizon to get our hopes up. 

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Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
2 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

Don’t worry I found it

look no further than the UKMO 96

02E5B7BD-8616-4CDB-92C5-B6F3133E1AC8.thumb.png.8cc2b3778d6cba7bda60d5fb416886c1.png

& now the GFS transformation in just 24 hours

Todays 00z 96 on the right

yesterdays 00z 120 on the left

4FF82927-7CE2-44E9-B108-B60F0B8B9FB0.thumb.png.8133787684476dcff9cc016c62c24303.png778758F5-9847-443E-B1C0-75DEA65C8FC4.thumb.png.6c0a09574536e571a62ae55d2d1525c4.png

wait where did that low go over the UK?....

Steve, with all due respect to you, you’re a fantastic knowledgeable poster here, and you have correctly called the evolution of GFS and ECM transitions to UKMO, but you hyped up something that is little more than a gentle flow from the continent and not a proper easterly, which you eluded to time and again over the last number of days. 

Surely you too now will admit, that it will not be a decent easterly, nor anything remotely like it? This is not a slight on you by the way, as I am a huge admirer of your ability to read model bias etc. 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Looks like a split vortex at 240 but as ever there is too much energy spilling out of the canadian segment !!:wallbash:

That has been the problem all winter so far and doesn't look like its going to abate anytime soon..

If  only we could get that ruddy Atlantic to quieten down- for once..

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, Dennis said:

the more than moderate-models-flipflap is starting bcs strato warming is coming 

Lets hope so Dennis - 

Think we are going to need a warming to help us out.

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Posted
  • Location: Milltimber, Aberdeen ~ 80m asl
  • Location: Milltimber, Aberdeen ~ 80m asl

Yes, the easterly looking less likely this morning but still plenty to be positive about moving forward. The PV remains fragmented, the jet continues to take a southerly track  and there are tentative signs the arctic high may exert an influence later down the line.

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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Looks like a split vortex at 240 but as ever there is too much energy spilling out of the canadian segment !!:wallbash:

That has been the problem all winter so far and doesn't look like its going to abate anytime soon..

If  only we could get that ruddy Atlantic to quieten down- for once..

This is the problem every year. 

It's called being an Island at the eastern edge of the Atlantic. 

The easterly is dead (I mean the convective snow bringing type, not a gentle SE breeze). We may see something from a PM source, but I'm dubious of that in all honesty. 

Living in the SE I clearly need to embrace winter snowfall with an Ethiopian outlook - it simply never happens here!

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

This is the problem every year. 

It's called being an Island at the eastern edge of the Atlantic. 

The easterly is dead (I mean the convective snow bringing type, not a gentle SE breeze). We may see something from a PM source, but I'm dubious of that in all honesty. 

Living in the SE I clearly need to embrace winter snowfall with an Ethiopian outlook - it simply never happens here!

I'm with you- believe me it doesn't snow much here either..

There is PM attacks on the morning runs but i fear unless you have quite a bit of altitude its going to be wet, not white.

First 2/3 of Jan looks snowless for most away from Scotland,the clock is starting to tick now, my interest wanes by mid Feb- (sun strength and all that).

Hopefully, as per catacols post yesterday we might see a different signal emerging in the coming days :)

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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
46 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not too much of the other sort of rain at all, the fluffy crystalised rain.

We got the first wind -up no need to do add a second :hi:

Anyway currently -9c and below in parts of Scotland

ukmintemp.png

Edited by stewfox
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Interestingly the 00GFS looks really very cold, esp the further north you go- heres a few snap shots of temps from next weekend onwards-

GFSOPUK00_174_17.png

GFSOPUK00_180_17.png

GFSOPUK00_198_17.png

GFSOPUK00_219_17.png

GFSOPUK00_240_17.png

And dew points remain low through out the run-

GFSOPUK00_195_10.png

GFSOPUK00_216_10.png

Obviously there are other parameters at play but i suspect Scotland esp further north of the jet may do quite well, esp higher parts, they could get buried...

We'll see, i think the vast majority will get wet, but for some it could be quite snowy !!

And that concludes this mornings political party broadcast from the not so impartial snow lovers party..

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
45 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Looks like a split vortex at 240 but as ever there is too much energy spilling out of the canadian segment !!:wallbash:

That has been the problem all winter so far and doesn't look like its going to abate anytime soon..

If  only we could get that ruddy Atlantic to quieten down- for once..

I'm inclined to wonder if thats altogether true - not that it's going to exit stage left but a split will deny it some 'oxygen' - ecm well west again with the diver .............

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I'm inclined to wonder if thats altogether true - not that it's going to exit stage left but a split will deny it some 'oxygen' - ecm well west again with the diver .............

Morning Blue- as i posted above- GFS 00z not without some interest , esp those up north with altitude perhaps? :)

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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.

Nothing to report in the reliable timeframe this morning. We have a robust block but not positioned well enough to bring us anything of note and a frustrated Atlantic not quite strong enough to remove the poorly positioned block leaving us for this week at least in a damp squib no mans land.  ECM shows some trough disruption at 168 (la la land) but not as far west as last nights.

The sensible money will be on the Atlantic eventually breaking through simply because that is what happens nine times out of ten in the UK. Its oyr climatology. 

Hope I'm wrong and we get a slider and retrogression but I wouldn't put money on it at the moment..

Edited by Broadmayne blizzard
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