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Model output discussion - into 2018


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Theyre ok -- that just means the warming coming a bit later - see the start of it -the green to our east.

yes, i'm not saying its a bad thing, just odd that its showing the vortex looking smashed, like we've had an SSW, before its happened! i've not seen that before. its going to be interesting to see what happens!

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
51 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I’m beginning to feel sorry for this easterly .

It’s being framed for crimes against coldies ! No output ever showed a proper easterly with deep cold and convection potential.

What we’ve seen is high pressure to the east/ne influencing the trough and trying to advect some cold air west then nw which might engage that.

If the block was to win out then at that point a chance but you need more energy over Central Southern Europe not directed towards Iberia.

Generally easterlies have trough disruption with a shortwave trigger not the whole trough trying to moving se.

 

Well we have but merely a tease! See below. GEM put out some real crackers..

4F051870-A716-4EFE-BA42-2A65700FC885.thumb.png.55f16b15206a9283fca7e5b9feb99746.pngF2011210-1CA0-4C61-A95F-4E338375F49D.thumb.png.edb8d4051d2753c1e29e5c5cea2ec865.png

I’m not calling it gameover as others have done I genuinely feel models don’t have a scooby doo they’re struggling to have consensus at day 4. It does not inspire much confidence going forward, yes repeatedly we see modelled chilly Atlantic driven PM flow crash through therefore one might think this is all but certain. Of course it’s always inevitable the Atlantic will crash through but it could be delayed. However, getting there is not as seamless dependant on positioning of Scandi block, as models put out. Probably outside chance but not impossible of importing some v cold air.

GEFS T+96 a fair spread in where the Scandi high is located. 

2B6A5D17-816A-44F8-99D1-E40304BBFD68.thumb.jpeg.846adaaebf5e09e57f536f204c8a1b2a.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
15 minutes ago, More Snow said:

 

I

 

35 minutes ago, More Snow said:

Didn't most of the Midlands central and southern uk have snow from a slider from the NW a few weeks ago?? and don't the Midlands have another snow event from the NW last week that closed major roads and Airports in the South East?? I'm afraid to say it but in the UK not one type of weather direction delivers for the entire country....so why on earth would anybody expect cold zonality to deliver for everyone?? for instance an Easterly is not really any good for me in my location but delivers for many, so far this winter my location has had an epic time from cold zonal weather types while many others have missed out so a snow fest for one is never going to be a snow fest for all it simply cannot work that way and never will.

I'm surprised you don't do well from an easterly and deep cold around Aberdeen, a few years back some friends of the family were snowed in virtually on an easterly that just kept on blowing in heavy snow showers from the north sea near Montrose which is just down the road from you. 

There has been snow around in the SE, but mainly north of the M4 and on higher ground. I got some wet snow in the 1st event that settled but nothing on the second one around 27th Dec. 

Chalk and cheese ECM and GFS, going to save these two charts for next Monday to see who comes closest.:)

ECM1-192-1.gif

gfs-0-186.png

Edited by snowray
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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

I’m beginning to feel sorry for this easterly .

It’s being framed for crimes against coldies ! No output ever showed a proper easterly with deep cold and convection potential.

What we’ve seen is high pressure to the east/ne influencing the trough and trying to advect some cold air west then nw which might engage that.

If the block was to win out then at that point a chance but you need more energy over Central Southern Europe not directed towards Iberia.

Generally easterlies have trough disruption with a shortwave trigger not the whole trough trying to moving se.

 

The fact the models are trying to move the whole trough under the block is why I think they are getting the signal confused for now. I expect a short wave to start moving SE soon.

Edited by alexisj9
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Well we have but merely a tease! See below. GEM put out some real crackers..

4F051870-A716-4EFE-BA42-2A65700FC885.thumb.png.55f16b15206a9283fca7e5b9feb99746.pngF2011210-1CA0-4C61-A95F-4E338375F49D.thumb.png.edb8d4051d2753c1e29e5c5cea2ec865.png

I’m not calling it gameover as others have done I genuinely feel models don’t have a scooby doo they’re struggling to have consensus at day 4. It does not inspire much confidence going forward, yes repeatedly we see modelled chilly Atlantic driven PM flow crash through therefore one might think this is all but certain. Of course it’s always inevitable the Atlantic will crash through but it could be delayed. However, getting there is not as seamless dependant on positioning of Scandi block, as models put out. Probably outside chance but not impossible of importing some v cold air.

GEFS T+96 a fair spread in where the Scandi high is located. 

2B6A5D17-816A-44F8-99D1-E40304BBFD68.thumb.jpeg.846adaaebf5e09e57f536f204c8a1b2a.jpeg

That was the previous easterly drama which imploded. The ECM dropped its better output and then went progressive for a few runs and now we’re onto the next one although this one isn’t really an easterly drama.

We have the Scandi high but no output has shown that yet bringing in a convective easterly with deep cold.

Still a chance though of an undercut and we’ll just have to see what happens over the next few runs.

 

 

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6 minutes ago, snowray said:

I

 

I'm surprised you don't do well from an easterly and deep cold around Aberdeen, a few years back some friends of the family were snowed in virtually on an easterly that just kept on blowing in heavy snow showers from the north sea near Montrose which is just down the road from you. 

There has been snow around in the SE, but mainly north of the M4 and on higher ground. I got some wet snow in the 1st event that settled but nothing on the second one around 27th Dec. 

Chalk and cheese ECM and GFS, going to keep these two charts for next Monday to see who came closest.:)

ECM1-192-1.gif

gfs-0-186.png

Many friends in the Essex area reported snow early December settling enough to go play in again many different things can lead to snow for some and snow for none. I can have snow here and yet Aberdeen can have nothing, and even more general Inverurie can have no snow yet I can have inches of it and inverurie  is only 13 miles from my location... and for instance my the road to my house is almost impassable today due to a 10 mins snow shower last night yet once off my road the other roads are clear and fine. I just don't get and understand the imby stuff that goes on in here, if its not snowing in good old London don't mean the rest of the UK is having a bad winter but if any of us pipe up and say anything we het shot down in an instant.

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Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
2 hours ago, blizzard81 said:

Well, if this year is a 1947 redux, I will forgive all  the frustration thus far :)Where is SM by the way? ;)

Gone to find his easterly.

Only joking Steve.

Seriously writing has been on the wall for 3 days or so for me.Although one thing I will say is all the models are fallible at times and each do lead us up the wrong path at times.

Personally there is more to the telecons (if only we could work them out fully)than meets the eye imo.

Although it's been great viewing over the last few days.

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

Morning,

slack easterly waft is there block a little more west so an improvement. Wonder what that low is going to do? Mm.

E2672D50-284D-4956-8C3A-A9550551FCF7.thumb.png.c437e366f961487e218bdd6db8ab9960.png658D31F0-B4E7-4C07-9FDC-DC0092E340F4.thumb.png.1cfce17883d42485e80f21ae89e50d87.png

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Posted
  • Location: Addingham moorside West Yorkshire 2-250m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Crisp Cold Days
  • Location: Addingham moorside West Yorkshire 2-250m

Easterly winds with a strong weather front pushing in from the Atlantic that stalls is the best scenario for brits London to the lakes for a big snow event the last good one was in 2012/13 i think especially for northern parts like Yorkshire where they saw 36hours of constant snow actually blowing in on easterly winds even thought the system can from the west as it stalled and with blizzard like conditions especially on elevated open areas where in some places of west and North Yorkshire saw 15f snow drifts on eastern slopes and the rest of the UK away from the south west had major roads and school closed more aless everywhere. 

its definitely the best for most for a prolonged snow event that pushes the warmer front from the west away bringing freezing conditions afterwards adding to the chaos. In fact does anyone have a model or forcast for that event I think it was march 2013?? 

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
9 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

"Playing someone like a fiddle" and that is what that high pressure to me is doing to a lot of members, IMO. 

 

Indeed Kev, the easterly has been off the menu for a few days now. 

The proceeding pattern may be of interest though...

GFS following the -AO script

gfsnh-0-210.png

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Indeed Kev, the easterly has been off the menu for a few days now. 

The proceeding pattern may be of interest though...

Look at the Berlin 18z ensembles, where's the really cold air? There's no ensemble below -10 until after the 20th. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=151046&model=gfs&var=2&run=18&lid=ENS&bw=

Edited by Weather-history
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Just now, Weather-history said:

Look at the Berlin ensembles, where's the really cold air? There's no ensemble below -10 until after the 20th. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=151046&model=gfs&var=2&run=18&lid=ENS&bw=

Exactly. 

I'm more interested in the Atlantic profile at the minute. Over the past day or two we've seen some amplification creep in, along with heights rising over the Arctic.

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Posted
  • Location: Oldbury
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and ice, thunderstorms
  • Location: Oldbury
15 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Exactly. 

I'm more interested in the Atlantic profile at the minute. Over the past day or two we've seen some amplification creep in, along with heights rising over the Arctic.

Yh there is just no deep cold in Europe at present in fact the uppers from the west are similar has that ever happened before. Also looks like Greenland is open for attack as the PV looks like packing it's bags. Just hope the next American deep freeze dosen't dash our hopes again.:girl_devil:

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Posted
  • Location: Stafford 320 FT ASL
  • Location: Stafford 320 FT ASL
5 hours ago, steveinsussex said:

im not getting into this but you said most; plus it was very localised and dependent on elevation

NOT TRUE AT ALL.  There was plenty of snow from Stoke on Trent in the north down to Oxford in the south.  From the Welsh border in the west across to the East midlands. Parts of the black country had up to 8 inches. And it stuck around for nearly a week.  Pm flows are good for our neck of the woods

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Posted
  • Location: Norway
  • Location: Norway

exciting progress from 14-16th  - PV air heading south and Greenland could see more high pressure with outflow later to scandi

Watch UKMO and EC this morning

65.gif

66.gif

Edited by Dennis
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

GFS looks really quite snowy at times this morning- granted thats using the precip charts which are probably unreliable at 168 onwards- but it shows there could be wintry suprises in the PM airflow :)

162hrs-

gfs-2-162.png?0

there are more examples furtheron..

Edited by northwestsnow
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