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Model output discussion - into 2018

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1 hour ago, TheBeastFromTheEAST said:

Hi Steve, some are saying that the met are not going with there own model and not going with an easterly in there outlook. What's your thoughts and gut feeling the way you see it paning out?

 

Thanks.

Yep just seen countryfile weekly outlook, Getting milder during the week with Atlantic break through on Friday.

 Which model do they use?

 MIA

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1 minute ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Yep just seen countryfile weekly outlook, Getting milder during the week with Atlantic break through on Friday.

 Which model do they use?

 MIA

Ones that are out of date!! 

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2 minutes ago, ukpaul said:

You said it wasting people's time, more to the point that not showing it was giving them false hope. 

EDIT: I already can see people saying it's a great run when it would take the rosiest of rose tinted spectacles to believe that. 

its a great run in the context of the bigger picture. its yet another move towards maintaining the block and allowing an easterly flow with lows going under. the fine details are almost irrelevant which is the point karlos was making. he wasn't having a go... and he's right. there's no point in looking at (especially) snow amounts 10 days out.

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2 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Yep just seen countryfile weekly outlook, Getting milder during the week with Atlantic break through on Friday.

 Which model do they use?

 MIA

Which totally seems to go against what John Hammond has tweeted!

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2 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Yep just seen countryfile weekly outlook, Getting milder during the week with Atlantic break through on Friday.

 Which model do they use?

 MIA

not the one john hammond is using 

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15 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

He’s not, he just mentions the potential! Big difference. Which then made everyone go looking at snow depth charts for next weekend. 😂

Aye Karl - potential - netweatherese for 'unlimited and unending blizzards and sub-15 Uppers'?

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yes MIA just saw that and wondered just the same as you,so will await answers with interest

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3 hours ago, SN0WM4N said:

Compared to what it was showing this morning the high is under attack from NE a lot more. Still good just not as good as it was earlier hence the tern 'downgrade'.

0zModele UKMO - Carte prévisions  Archives

12z Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

Timings are a bit off but there are still differences. The 0z had straight easterly across much of europe, 12z looks a bit sloppy.

There are three main differences on that chart but while two are a little worse, one is better.

1) The first is that the high is tilted at a worse angle due to more energy to it's north east. 

2) The second is that the Atlantic is a little stronger here and so everything is 100-200 miles east however looking at it this seems to be a simple case of the primary low being 10mb stronger rather than anything important

3) The positive - On tonight's run more energy is headed south east with the front across the UK being weaker. This is a good thing if we can get the wave to form a secondary low over southern France/Italy at day 6-7-8 ect..

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3 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Yep just seen countryfile weekly outlook, Getting milder during the week with Atlantic break through on Friday.

 Which model do they use?

 MIA

Well ecm breaks through by sat and Sunday shows the front just getting to the east. Seems a reasonable call at present then 

significant themes from that ec run are it doesn't completely write off the ukmo and it gets the diving trough west of the meridian  

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JMA PV air from west looks stronger next week then high block

77.gif

76.gif

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2 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

its a great run in the context of the bigger picture. its yet another move towards maintaining the block and allowing an easterly flow with lows going under. the fine details are almost irrelevant which is the point karlos was making. he wasn't having a go... and he's right. there's no point in looking at (especially) snow amounts 10 days out.

There is little chance of anything from a block unless you let the Atlantic through on a better trajectory by next Monday/Tuesday. At 240h the block is collapsing and the Atlantic coming back in at a less advantageous angle. It's game over at that point and you are looking upstream instead for some amplification.

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Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, ukpaul said:

There is little chance of anything from a block unless you let the Atlantic through on a better trajectory by next Monday/Tuesday. At 240h the block is collapsing and the Atlantic coming back in at a less advantageous angle. It's game over at that point and you are looking upstream instead for some amplification.

i'm not saying its perfect but its incremental improvements we are looking for and we are seeing some.

Edited by bobbydog
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Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Yep just seen countryfile weekly outlook, Getting milder during the week with Atlantic break through on Friday.

 Which model do they use?

 MIA

Well it’s the ukmo model I think.when they run the charts on the screen it look like UKMO.Big call to say the Atlantic will break through.Anyway I’ve seen lots of countryfile  forecasts in the past go wrong for the end of the week .And egg on the face of the broadcaster if the Easterly wins out.

I would think it’s very hard to make an accurate forecast beyond Wed for next week.More runs as ever,needed:)

Edited by SLEETY
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14 minutes ago, Dennis said:

JMA PV air from west looks stronger next week then high block

77.gif

76.gif

Yes, further east than the ECM and cold zonality for the UK.

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Posted (edited)
24 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Yep just seen countryfile weekly outlook, Getting milder during the week with Atlantic break through on Friday.

 Which model do they use?

 MIA

Think you should watch it again...

Edited by ribster
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It’s a developing situation so why wouldn’t forecasters say getting milder etc? Even if we do get the beast it’s not going to come until a week tomorrow at the earliest imo, we are looking for the building blocks atm that’s all

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38 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Yep just seen countryfile weekly outlook, Getting milder during the week with Atlantic break through on Friday.

 Which model do they use?

 MIA

Hi MIA....Team Jo mentioned It's not the thread for this.....SO

 

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EC deviation plots show the UK colder than average 168 onards-

 

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Posted (edited)

The eps really aren't correcting much West now. if anything they have gone as far as they will and the slight movement at day 6 is east. whilst the op is correcting the dropping trough west I shall continue use to hold my fire on this but by tomorrow evening I expect to be able to pull down the curtain on any beasterly making it further than the German border and deciding whether we will end up in a battleground as the trough drops se. 

What did catch my attention is the mean split vortex days 10/13  to our north with the split led from the scandi ridging - that set up could show some interesting members ,...............

Edited by bluearmy
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There is currently quite a marked difference between the main models at +192h.  

ECM    image.thumb.gif.8ef6c7fb6c2fc5ead61e7f2a539345b3.gif

GFS    image.thumb.png.3a72af42c88ab8830a50e30ea2154414.png

GEM   image.thumb.png.733d1e303491339e23d9742fcbc6da49.png

The UKMO of course only goes out to +144h and could back any of the above over the next couple of days:

image.thumb.gif.c4d992f351f73202f84140a8298962d4.gif

However, once again the smart money must be on a convergence between the first three as we get nearer this timeframe....  

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The eps really aren't correcting much West now. if anything they have gone as far as they will and the slight movement at day 6 is east. whilst the op is correcting the dropping trough west I shall continue use to hold my fire on this but by tomorrow evening I expect to be able to pull down the curtain on any beasterly making it further than the German border and deciding whether we will end up in a battleground as the trough drops se. 

From the dutch plumes I can tell the battleground is right through the Netherlands, the northeast gets cold (and with not much support from the members even) , the rest not so much, so any cold for the UK is probably a long shot

Edited by ArHu3
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While there's definite potential in the ECM and UKMO this evening most of us older members have been here plenty of times before. And guess what.....It usually ends in toys/prams.

I will admit one very good sign is this is all happening in early January with plenty of Winter left. Just we don't want a half way house here either the full beast or let cold zonality win the battle. Stalemate will just burn up valuable winter time and with the birds already singing in the mornings etc etc....

What interests me most so-far is the depth of cold over Eastern America. They won't be many dis agreeing with Trump after this freezer spell. I mean frost bite in 10mins in New York. What global warming sir???

Back to the here and now and my experience of watching charts over 40 years tells me this Easterly spell may quickly upgrade in the next 24 hours

As ever we shall see.....

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Evening All, there is a strong signal for high pressure to be to our northeast in the next ten days , Question is how much will that effect the Uk?  Gfs has been the winner of late ,Ecm has a woeful performance , but a very finely balanced set up.... Being totally Honest , the Atlantic has the lions share of the Uk, but just a little shift from the Scandi High west and there could well be fun and games....Interesting viewing ......:cold::yahoo::D Really the difference between this and this:cc_confused:

_72100711_72100675.jpg

B2vL3vHIYAAJ1ZY.jpg

ANNA.png

ANNAX.png

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5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The eps really aren't correcting much West now. if anything they have gone as far as they will and the slight movement at day 6 is east. whilst the op is correcting the dropping trough west I shall continue use to hold my fire on this but by tomorrow evening I expect to be able to pull down the curtain on any beasterly making it further than the German border and deciding whether we will end up in a battleground as the trough drops se. 

i take it you are in the 'cold zonal' camp BA?

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