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Model output discussion - into 2018


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

The ECM is so so close to being brilliant, we just need that continental cold to hit the UK. The block to our NE is starting to go over the top off the disrupting trough moving across the UK which seems plausible given the strength of the jet driving ESE into Europe.

ECH1-168.GIF?07-0   ECH1-192.GIF?07-0

The good thing is the UKMO is on the same page up to day 6, but I guess we will need to wait for cross model agreement at day 4.... well actually by the time we get the next model suite it will be day 3. :help:

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
11 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Agreed...I can't believe I'm saying this....WEST IS BEST :D

ECM0-168_hci4.GIF

You couldn't write it!  as soon as I stated "West is best" ....THIS HAPPENS :crazy:

ECM1-192_ytm0.GIFECM1-216_dgb6.GIF

Edited by Dancerwithwings
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Posted
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire

She’s going under and pressure rising over east Greenland :yahoo:

just need another trough to slide se before the high in the mid Atlantic belly flops over the U.K. 

Edited by Frostbite1980
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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Whilst this run doesn't quite deliver, the 'potential' (:whistling:) is still there for the beast to awaken.  What's really positive about today is that they are all showing a more robust Scandi high, a very pleasant trend that if repeated tomorrow may produce an SM 'Boom'.

Edited by Ice Day
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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

ECM1-216.GIF?07-0 ECM0-216.GIF?07-0

Yep - the polar continental air wrapped right in as I requested .

It's important that the next trough in line doesn't arrive in the mid-N. Atlantic much sooner than it does, though, else you still get the 'levering out' effect that the 00z showed.

Still considering this a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow for now, but it just become a tad less fairytale than it was :).

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, Ice Day said:

Whilst this run doesn't quite deliver, the 'potential' (:whistling:) is still there for the beast to awaken.  What's really positive about today is that they are all showing a more robust Scandi high, a very pleasant tread that if repeated tomorrow may produce an SM 'Boom'.

Im sure the ec does deliver - looks good to me?

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
12 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

ec is either very very snowy at 192- or very very wet!

Depends where you live in the UK

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes looks great at 216-

snow depth charts might make interesting reading...

V decent snow event for S it looks not seen snow depth charts... :) 

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

Aren't we looking at marginality at best...-2 to -4 uppers at coldest, anyway it's the good ol' ECM chances are it won't be anything close to that run.

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Posted
  • Location: Somerset.
  • Location: Somerset.
Just now, Daniel* said:

V decent snow event for S it looks not seen snow depth charts... :) 

For the south? Can you expand a touch for a newbie thanks :)

 

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Posted
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
Just now, Froze were the Days said:

Aren't we looking at marginality at best...-2 to -4 uppers at coldest, anyway it's the good ol' ECM chances are it won't be anything close to that run.

You DO NOT need -5 and below upper air temps for snow. Dew points are more important.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

V decent snow event for S it looks not seen snow depth charts... :) 

at 216 we are under the infuence of LP and the draw is from the continent (a cold France).

I might be wrong here but it could be very snow..

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Im sure the ec does deliver - looks good to me?

I want more NWS, more I tell you!!!  Yes, it does deliver but I'm thinking we could get even better, a full on easterly flow with -10 uppers across most of the country.  It's what we all deserve!

Edited by Ice Day
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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
1 minute ago, Froze were the Days said:

Aren't we looking at marginality at best...-2 to -4 uppers at coldest, anyway it's the good ol' ECM chances are it won't be anything close to that run.

Dryer easterly (continental) air aids snowfall at uppers of 0c, as long as the flow remains off the continent it shouldn't be marginal. (All conjecture at this range though)

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex

-2 uppers with a continental feed could be good enough for snow. But it’s pointless discussing it on a chart at 9-10 days away.

Edited by Djdazzle
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Posted
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

at 216 we are under the infuence of LP and the draw is from the continent (a cold France).

I might be wrong here but it could be very snow..

I don't see much mixing in of warmer air either, which the last slidergate had and still performed quite well.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, Djdazzle said:

-2 uppers with a contented feed could be good enough for snow. But it’s pointless discussing it on a chart at 9-10 days away.

Yes thats fair comment- i was just commenting there is snow potential in my opinion.. :)

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Posted
  • Location: Milton Keynes
  • Location: Milton Keynes
3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

V decent snow event for S it looks not seen snow depth charts... :) 

It is a rain event unfortunately -can't seem to post the image

 

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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
6 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

V decent snow event for S it looks not seen snow depth charts... :) 

Not very good I'm afraid but take the snow charts with a pinch of salt.

Screenshot_20180107-190340.png

Edited by booferking
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
17 minutes ago, Chris101 said:

Lol i new someone would see that.

I think its a -12 over a -16:cold:

Useless then? -16C? Pah!:cold:

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