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Model output discussion - into 2018


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Snow & Snow.
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
25 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Awesome, but still GFS doesn’t agree...120 is pretty close time wise, which one is right and which one has some serious egg on its face....it’s hard to believe UKMO with METO talking of it but you never know.

144 looks great, still slightly East for my liking but a big strong Scandy high with cold feeding west

The UKMO looks Fantastic and i really want it to be correct but there's one thing I've noticed every winter and that it's unfortantly it's always the one we don't want to be right that usually is sadly. Surly were due some luck by now. We've suffered enough lol. 

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

GFS isn’t a bad run with plenty of snow potential around day 8/9. And the NH looks pretty good going forward with an Arctic high and a very weakened PV to our North West.

6B888E51-17C6-44B7-86D9-B2350A534FEC.png

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Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.

25 members online in the MOD thread... And it’s 5am! I have an excuse that I’m working, the rest of you are nuts! 

 

ECM in about 90 minutes will tell us for certain where this is headed. See y’all then!

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1 hour ago, Daniel* said:

What a striking difference at day 4 between GFS and UKMO you have to put your money with UKMO at this stage. If ECM 00z which comes out alike to UKMO in roughly two hours time - I’d say it’s all systems go. :) 

F2789367-6666-4C88-A47B-BFC68CDF31CF.thumb.gif.4eb18086ffd40176d80429a953c56c79.gif141D48F9-0B15-401A-9D02-2D7AD22E08DE.thumb.png.87174a9a3f347b1efaa4cce10316343c.png

No you'd put your money on the GFS. As it was the only one who didn't call the phantom "Cold Easterly" for this weekend, earlier this week ecm and ukmo had  -10 uppers across England and Scotland for now. 

Edited by Longtimelurker
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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
11 minutes ago, Longtimelurker said:

No you'd put your money on the GFS. As it was the only one who didn't call the phantom Easterly for this weekend, earlier this week ecm and ukmo had -8 to -10 uppers across England and Scotland for now. 

At day 4 9/10 UKMO would be right over GFS but this is no typical pattern. GFS is rarely enthused. I find this happens a lot with these E’ly synoptics ECM soon coming out *yawn*, not quite sure why I do this to myself. :D 

Misery or joy? I have a feeling it’s going to be a misery guts.. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.

Lets play spot the difference. 

gfs-1-144.png

UW144-7.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

Just waiting for the UKMO 850s @144 but it is the best run it’s ever churned out- 

Of course with the GEM & GFS still pony tony it’s worrying that at 96 they are totally different— 

The forecast is still bang on the UKMO ...

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

Need the jet to dig south at 144 steve- what you reckon? Not sure myself, the cold uppers are knocking on the door but is the Atlantic going to playball>

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

Ecm going the same way as ukmo at t96. Let's hope it continues.

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

T+96 very similar between the two indeed however heights aren’t as low in mainland Europe minor angst - however very pleasing this is for coldies. Somewhat agreement between the two. :) 

3642744C-EA29-4995-A7C0-EE183731D681.thumb.jpeg.239297103a004e933fb2a32b8b71162b.jpeg2815C64D-C6E8-4518-83DE-B13D568C9B0C.thumb.png.24abb11e950b327f24f44de7b17b3254.png

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

UN96-21.GIF?07-06   ECH1-96.GIF?07-12

Both the UKMO and ECM both have cold air starting to push underneath the high from the east, whether it makes it to the UK is a different question but this does change the game in respect to what happens next as there is an increasing likelyhood of having a fully cut off high to our north east rather than the hugely inflated ridge shown over the past few days, the main benefit will be the increasing cold pool developing just to our east because of this change in the output. Huge differences between these two the GFS at such a short timeframe.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
2 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

UN96-21.GIF?07-06   ECH1-96.GIF?07-12

Both the UKMO and ECM both have cold air starting to push underneath the high from the east, whether it makes it to the UK is a different question but this does change the game in respect to what happens next as there is an increasing likelyhood of having a fully cut off high to our north east rather than the hugely inflated ridge shown over the past few days. Huge differences between these two the GFS at such a short timeframe.

The cut of high has been the difference for last 24 hours of output. Great to see ecm continuing with this. 

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

V cold air destination Europe! Pleased with  EC while not quite as good as UKMO still it keeps the dream alive. GFS sort your game out! :yahoo::nonono:

80B32D7F-3D29-4701-9847-1460EE533D80.thumb.png.99df79a561786ffb8f80ae2927b7d8f2.png

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
6 minutes ago, ShortWaveHell said:

As a beginner I struggle with these differences ! One is going to have a very wrong evolution  How? Who? What? When? Why? :( 

The key is at t72 to t96 ecm and ukmo form a cut of high to the ne whereas the gfs doesn't. Flabby bottom and therefore the cold doesn't move west and the block gets pushed se. It's promising that they have both continued with this but we want gfs on board to add to the confidence. Easier to see on Europe view as opposed to NH view.

Edited by That ECM
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Posted
  • Location: Norway
  • Location: Norway
7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

ECH1-144.GIF?07-12

144

its very nice - i would like more PV Power soon so i hope this goes to that setup....

65.png

65.gif

Edited by Dennis
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, Daniel* said:

The beast is lurking in the wings. :)

CB29A93D-8253-4CE4-B9C3-2471B0635702.thumb.png.f114705cdc268b390426d5ccdd32aaf6.png

Its a good evolution so far but 168 is absolutely critical- this is where need the Atlantic to disrupt and go under.

As with ukmo its on a knife edge..

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

After yesterday evenings ecm who expected it to upgrade?:D:D

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Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Not so sure the Atlantic is playing ball here-

Will let the experts decipher whats going on at 168..

It's the jet stream, it does not want to play.

Edited by The Eagle
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