Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion - into 2018


Paul

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

You’d be hard pushed to call the ecm an outlier, but not exactly in the middle of its members that’s for sure towards the end of the run. Decent

3D160DFE-95DC-47B9-87AE-5F4AF09985C1.thumb.gif.8851461806b75c2c904afead7f448282.gif

Night y’all ( trying some American to usher the cold in :whistling:)

 

As we all know well, they flip more than pancakes on shrove Tuesday, so it’ll look very different tomorrow ?

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
13 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Probably the most keenly awaited 00z set of runs yet this winter. We really do deserve a good throw of the dice this time.

Yes definitely. Time to move on from marginal dew points and slush.

Some parts of the country have done okay with some decent snowfalls but what we haven't seen is the depth of cold able to deliver crunchy snow, with little day time melt.

We don't want snow only because the precip is heavy which then turns to sleet and rain when it becomes lighter, nor do we want some BBC reporter telling everyone theres a winter wonderland whilst they're looking at a slushy deposit on top of the wheelie bin!

Not good enough!

I really feel for UK coldies and the crap they have to put up with!

Fingers crossed for tomorrow morning, lets hope for upgrades.

 

Edited by nick sussex
  • Like 9
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
3 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

As we all know well, they flip more than pancakes on shrove Tuesday, so it’ll look very different tomorrow ?

Yes its going to be up and down a while longer like a yo-yo. ECM definitely not an outlier though, there are colder members there.

ups-and-downs-3_Ink_LI.thumb.jpg.55c4a32aecdc5a013b1816f2ec15a603.jpg

me-waiting-for-this-snow-storm.jpg.e94aa1d4c5b08c50d9fcc798fb63336e.jpg

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
10 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

TEITS, Steve Murr, GP, Catacol, etc. if this turns out the way you said it will (and I appreciate you have different takes), I will take my hat off to you.

Post of the day! Well done sir.

My take on things is thus. I'm not sure what's happening this winter but every model has had some really bad days. There seems to be some new signals that the models just can' compute with any accuracy. There is so much volatility within the patterns and the NH profile is seemingly ripe for superb synoptics for our part of the world. 

It's making for fabulous viewing, hopefully a sign of winters to come?

Edited by Ice Day
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire

I’m no expert, but I have my thoughts. There must be an algorithm (default) signal that all models follow for our neck of the woods (hence the GFS backing a zonal bias in low res). This winter has been more than unusual, so the algorithms are sent into a chaotic mode and struggle to realign to the signals. When you throw the rare beast (a scandi high) into the mix, the struggle is apparent. All models underestimate this block to the east, but the UKMO tends to handle it better. I know we need cross model agreement, but maybe it’s best to follow the UKMO at this range. I could be rambling nonsense, but that’s where my money is.

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Stafford 320 FT ASL
  • Location: Stafford 320 FT ASL
1 hour ago, karlos1983 said:

I think it’s already been shown for a few days now. It’s almost been 1 step back 2 steps forward (maybe 1.5 steps forward) usually it’s the reverse, but these heights to our east or north east setups aren’t “standard fair” so Models will struggle. 

Will we get to that easterly we all crave? Who knows, but the Atlantic sure as hell won’t just fire through without a fight, no way. 

Ps thanks @Nick F , top analysis ! :good:

I certainly don't crave an easterly,    Unless you live in the SE or down the east coast, they tend not to deliver the goods.  I was quite happy with the PM flow we had a couple of weeks ago lol.   

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Isle of Man
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Blizzards, Storms, Hot, Foggy - Infact everything
  • Location: Isle of Man

As myself and others have previously said, the models do not handle easterly at all well. The more from the norm that the signals are, then the more likely that the models are going to have problems and behave erratically. I think now though the signals are becoming so strong that all of the models will start to show easterly solutions, the trigger point for a full blown easterly being late next week. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
1 minute ago, JBMWeatherForever said:

As myself and others have previously said, the models do not handle easterly at all well. The more from the norm that the signals are, then the more likely that the models are going to have problems and behave erratically. I think now though the signals are becoming so strong that all of the models will start to show easterly solutions, the trigger point for a full blown easterly being late next week. 

My thoughts too

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
1 hour ago, At least it will be mild said:

I certainly don't crave an easterly,    Unless you live in the SE or down the east coast, they tend not to deliver the goods.  I was quite happy with the PM flow we had a couple of weeks ago lol.   

Easterlies can often be a dry affair for all of us apart from flurries, but its what happens afterwards once the cold has set up shop that matters, from streamers to Channel lows to battle ground scenarios, and no borderline events either once you get them -10c, -12c+, uppers in. Many recent easterlies have unfortunately been of the mild variety though, so not even a flurry or two.:cray:

36-7.gif

51-7.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Chepstow Wales
  • Location: Chepstow Wales

Date . 07/01/2018

Winter time ' and some knicky knockers are writing it off ' why?

I presume the Models ain't showing there full blown Bloomers ' Its a bit like the Summer wine in here .

we still got a far way head for winter and looking at the models ' which i think are bugged for us (some old fracker is fiddling about with them Graphics)

all to play for ' its like a roller coaster in here up and down and a few spewing up ' i know in my old wrinkly skin ' we are in for a very cold spell .

I seen some good blizzards back in the day ' and lampost watching when all the lamposts were white with a normal beynot fitting ' Bring back the 60s 70s 80s winters .

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

UKMO at 120 is nearly BOOM, Scandy high is way better oriented for bringing cold to the UK

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

UKMO T+120 is bloody brilliant gets better and better! Train from the east inbound. 

9F947409-C024-4659-A3ED-39FE151AF1FD.thumb.gif.0c2e937354055297228df4c89cd1eafe.gif

 

Awesome, but still GFS doesn’t agree...120 is pretty close time wise, which one is right and which one has some serious egg on its face....it’s hard to believe UKMO with METO talking of it but you never know.

144 looks great, still slightly East for my liking but a big strong Scandy high with cold feeding west

Edited by Ali1977
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

What a striking difference at day 4 between GFS and UKMO you have to put your money with UKMO at this stage. If ECM 00z which comes out alike to UKMO in roughly two hours time - I’d say it’s all systems go. :) 

F2789367-6666-4C88-A47B-BFC68CDF31CF.thumb.gif.4eb18086ffd40176d80429a953c56c79.gif141D48F9-0B15-401A-9D02-2D7AD22E08DE.thumb.png.87174a9a3f347b1efaa4cce10316343c.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Croxley
  • Location: Croxley

My impression has been that the UKMO has been awful this winter, especially at T144, but hopefully its right today! Anybody remember the Mid-Atlantic cut off low drama last January when the UKMO trumped the GFS/ECM, to coldies' despair, after Knocker said the UKMO looked the more likely evolution? So it is possible that the UKMO can be right against the ECM/GFS, but I think everybody would like to see the ECM agreeing later on.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Awesome, but still GFS doesn’t agree...120 is pretty close time wise, which one is right and which one has some serious egg on its face....it’s hard to believe UKMO with METO talking of it but you never know.

144 looks great, still slightly East for my liking but a big strong Scandy high with cold feeding west

Yes that is annoying but it’s great to have UKMO on side rather have it than GFS / UKMO T+144 and it’s aligned perfectly to funnel that very cold right towards us perhaps a glancing blow for the north. 

8E36EC51-2744-4D09-A5E1-B3D5E6E3A6D0.thumb.gif.c3dab64d8765caa31ec75dd5f186187e.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Chalk and cheese at 144. Just on the basis that we always miss out (and a little bit of METO update) I’m going to punt at GFS being correct. If ECM jumps on board then maybe I’ll be 50/50

3C105C18-9514-43F3-8AB9-A4009A5844F6.png

4695887E-F23C-49CA-89D9-C625CB074BE3.png

I say chalk and cheese, probably a few tweaks and Day 1/2 and maybe that would flip them either way by day 7. Looking at these pictures together and they aren’t too far off each other I guess (Atlantic side anyway).

Edited by Ali1977
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland

Today's global model rankings ("what it says for my area" method)

 

1. UKMO

2. ECM

3. ICON

4. GEM (BIG drop from number one two days a go)

5. NOGAPS

6. GFS

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just waiting for the UKMO 850s @144 but it is the best run it’s ever churned out- 

Of course with the GEM & GFS still pony tony it’s worrying that at 96 they are totally different— 

The forecast is still bang on the UKMO ...

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Just waiting for the UKMO 850s @144 but it is the best run it’s ever churned out- 

Of course with the GEM & GFS still pony tony it’s worrying that at 96 they are totally different— 

The forecast is still bang on the UKMO ...

You'd want to see the ECM on board at the very least.

 

GEM and GFS have taken a dump on the UKMO evolution.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
9 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Just waiting for the UKMO 850s @144 but it is the best run it’s ever churned out- 

Of course with the GEM & GFS still pony tony it’s worrying that at 96 they are totally different— 

The forecast is still bang on the UKMO ...

It’s a pretty strong block on the UKMO but flicking between 120/144 it still looks venerable to being shunted East don’t you think? Or is the Atlantic going to go over it, which in than case may squash it ? It’s pretty hard to have faith in any UK Cold after the last few years (and 3 days ago) ?

Edited by Ali1977
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)

Interesting how all roads lead to cold though with the gfs serving up some of the US cold with widespread snow.

We really are being attacked from all directions!!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
25 minutes ago, metaltron said:

My impression has been that the UKMO has been awful this winter, especially at T144, but hopefully its right today! Anybody remember the Mid-Atlantic cut off low drama last January when the UKMO trumped the GFS/ECM, to coldies' despair, after Knocker said the UKMO looked the more likely evolution? So it is possible that the UKMO can be right against the ECM/GFS, but I think everybody would like to see the ECM agreeing later on.

But it all follows on from day 4. :shok:

Correct me if I’m wrong but I think it’s been the most consistent then again it only goes out to day 6!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...