Model output discussion - into 2018

[SMU]

Also note 

126 winds westerly in the UK 12z

120 winds Easterly in the UK 18z

[chionomaniac]

I'm liking the WAA angle of the low to the west of the UK on this run- GFS taking small steps towards the Euros yet again

[Ice Day]

Out to 132 and sharper troughing to our west, and further south than the 12z.  Baby steps and all that

18z  12z 

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, chionomaniac said:

I'm liking the WAA angle of the low to the west of the UK on this run- GFS taking small steps towards the Euros yet again

Hope your right C-

I was thinking the opposite TBH, dont like the notion of the azores high ridging into Europe?

[karlos1983]

This will only aid scandi height rises

straight lines cutting Iceland in half! Getting very interesting 

[That ECM]

Gfs taking a step forward. This is getting interesting. The block is a better shape and not sinking which in turn means that the lows from the nw can't go through and need to go over or under. Under seems to be the chosen route today and it's been a good day for coldies. 

[chionomaniac]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Hope your right C-

I was thinking the opposite TBH, dont like the notion of the azores high ridging into Europe?

I don't see that - Just reinforcements to push the Scandi block westwards

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, chionomaniac said:

I don't see that - Just reinforcements to push the Scandi block westwards

Cheers C

The azores high isnt going to make it into Europe on this run i don't think.

 

[Ice Day]

The other thing I notice is that the 18z is picking up the secondary push of heights to the east of Iceland like the UKMO.  This wasn't there on the 12z

GFS 138  UKMO 144 

Not a perfect match but it's moving closer

[northwestsnow]

We now have a wedge of heights from east Greenland towards Scandy

edit and the azores high has been pulled away westwards..

Edited January 6, 2018 by northwestsnow

[karlos1983]

Just now, Ice Day said:

The other thing I notice is that the 18z is picking up the secondary push of heights to the east of Iceland like the UKMO.  This wasn't there on the 12z

GFS 138  UKMO 144 

Not a perfect match but it's moving closer

Looks like a classic gfs taking tiny weeny little steps back.

ECM expectations need to be moderated in my opinion though, that’s pretty much the very best outcome, which at day 10 given its history in these setups, speaks for itself. Although this time the starting blocks are 200m down the line on an 800m track, unlike a few days ago when the easterly came out of almost nowhere. So odds raised slightly, but caution advised!

[chionomaniac]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

We now have a wedge of heights from east Greenland towards Scandy

edit and the azores high was been pulled away westwards..

Hopefully you can see why the reinforcement has pushed the block west and no cut off low on this run. It could be better, but an improvement in the hi res compared to the last run

[The Eagle]

Interesting Jet profile. Note the anti cyclonic circulation to the north. East of Iceland.

 

[CK1981]

11 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Also note 

126 winds westerly in the UK 12z

120 winds Easterly in the UK 18z

Baby steps and spot on with your thoughts. I’m guessing 850’s will drop over time, so irrelevant at those timescales?

[SMU]

Here’s a classic example of GFS fail

2009-

GFS 18z T132

& here’s the T12 chart 5 days later

 

GFS has NO CLUE what to do with the energy anywhere in NW Europe.

[northwestsnow]

Ooooooo think we are going to see a pressure rise over scandy here- whenever i see that little blob of light blue amongst the green i know its coming..

[karlos1983]

No question about it the gfs has struggled more than any of the big 3 over recent days of this height rise to the NE. You have to take into consideration it has 4 outputs a day, almost all differ, UKMO has been the best for me and ECM has had a 24-36 breakdown, but it’s like a good mate and apologises straight away, unlike the gfs which is a stubborn son of a b%#%h , but eventually will have no choice 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Ooooooo think we are going to see a pressure rise over scandy here- whenever i see that little blob of light blue amongst the green i know its coming..

no, GFS lost the plot again, around next weekend

[Daniel*]

Something different from GFS here but sliding low going se... been busy but encouraging model output today! 

[snowice]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Ooooooo think we are going to see a pressure rise over scandy here- whenever i see that little blob of light blue amongst the green i know its coming..

That pressure rise east of Iceland is something to watch in 00z.

[Ice Day]

I think it's fair to say the GFS hasn't got a handle on this yet. Big difference at just 8 days out.

18z at 186  12z at 192 

 

[Lowestoft Weather]

4 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

Interesting Jet profile. Note the anti cyclonic circulation to the north. East of Iceland.

 

That's correct Eagle. Notice the angle is NW to SE rather than the current west to east. I think this is when we have a better chance of the Jet undercutting the high that is presently to our east. Increased chances of pressure rises pulling west from Scandinavia to our north. Result = bitter cold + especially snow nearer the lower heights to southern UK. Interesting week ahead for sure.

[bobbydog]

7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Here’s a classic example of GFS fail

2009-

GFS 18z T132

& here’s the T12 chart 5 days later

 

GFS has NO CLUE what to do with the energy anywhere in NW Europe.

that may be but the GFS had a massive overhaul a year or so ago, with the help of the ECMWF team so its a very different beast to what it was in 2009. therefore not really a fair assessment of its performance.

just saying...

[SMU]

2 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

that may be but the GFS had a massive overhaul a year or so ago, with the help of the ECMWF team so its a very different beast to what it was in 2009. therefore not really a fair assessment of its performance.

just saying...

It still fails exactly the same when it comes to energy seperation- as being born out now at 96/120.

[ukpaul]

Poor in the end, losing the cold PM air that even the 12z had and way short of anything that GFS was coming up with for a few runs before that. The block is slowing eastward movement and bringing nothing of its own to the table as far as GFS is concerned, an ECM solution would be much better but this middle ground is nobody's friend.