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Model output discussion - into 2018


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
3 minutes ago, andymusic said:

too much marginality around - full on north easterly today and all it could manage from the precip was a few flakes of very marginal snow at the top of the beacons locally - models just aren't dragging in enough cold uppers - see what you like but that's a fact i'm afraid

Get the block in place and the cold will follow...

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Perhaps with a zonal onslaught in the offing, but how bizarre to suggest that when the synoptics are offering a block to the NE that wouldn't need to change too much to deliver a cold spell!

It is looking more and more like the Atlantic will break through though soon, Albeit with one GEFS member showing the -12c isotherm in a Westerly!!!, granted its not raging zonality of the last few winters but it is looking like zonality of some description, certainly cant see any other synoptic actually delivering lowland southern half snow in the next 10 days, No severe cold directly close by to the East, the battlegroung likely to be the wrong side of marginal and a proper Arctic Norterly (none toppler) looking a long shot.

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Posted
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Snow>Freezing Fog; Summer: Sun>Daytime Storms
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
39 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

The strat jam started at 1hPA on the 20th - and give or take it has stuck there (on the 20th) for the most of the runs. So whereas I know that it always seems like gold at the end of the rainbow, so far this is reeling in at the expected timeframe.

 

So now we see at T+336

NH_TMP_1mb_336.thumb.gif.d254eb2f7a3c7234819e0a163ad34eaa.gif

Every little helps...

 

Thanks for the explanation. This is good and I look forward to seeing it at T+312 tomorrow.

Edited by The Enforcer
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Posted
  • Location: East Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold.
  • Location: East Midlands
1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

Annoying but at least you can go buy a pint of milk in the UK without getting your head blown off!

They can keep their bomb cyclones and frigid air, we’ll keep our safer streets and civilized society here in Europe!

Wonder where the greatest risk of being killed by a terrorist lies? In 'civilised' Europe or Alabama? 

Anyway, the problem with the block being too Far East is one we've seen played out numerous times before. The UK ends up in mildish dross with depressions running into the block and becoming slow moving near or to our west.

Plus we'll still have to listen to micro analysis of how the block is 25 miles further west and the GFS is 'correcting' to the ECM/UKMO/ GEM (depending on which is favoured today). 

Roll on the far away block getting even further away.

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

ECM very interesting tonight - at T168, energy still goes north but not strong enough to dislodge heights to the east, and the door to the beast from the east may well open again by T192/T216 as the front clears. But this time, deep cold is gathering to the east.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Cold moving back west at T 168. Could be a very nice run this.:)

ECM1-168.gif

ECM0-168.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
13 minutes ago, andymusic said:

i'm afraid it pretty much looks like we are locked into a no mans land territory right now - cold to the left - cold way over to the right - even cold and snow to the south of us - way south in Spain and North Africa - and us left in the neutral zone for the foreseeable - think it's time to face facts - have a mid-winter break from the models - re-charge your batteries and come back fresh!

Doesn't a spell of relative 'nomanslandness' nearly always precede a switch from Atlantic-driven weather to a long-fetch Beast? 

A question for GP & Co, if I may: is the 'Sudden' part of SSW a hang back to the days of yore, when such things used to seem to appear out of nothing - there was far less balloon-data available back then, I presume?:good:

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

Look what happens when you haven't got a "flabby bottom:D" hign always better not having a flabby bottom!!

IMG_0316.PNG

IMG_0317.PNG

Edited by That ECM
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

The UKMO still better than the ECM , much cleaner flow .

Note the ECM and those little blue areas of lower heights running north that stops a better evolution.

Still guarantees that the drama continues into tomorrow!

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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

I'm the man without a beard but I agree - now, there's a proper 'beast' waiting in the wings

image.thumb.png.9aa7f34ff6cf424545574df93ab8cc99.png

@ 192hrs

image.thumb.png.346f7de1f05c7a3d6855de45f6e03b93.png

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
2 minutes ago, Borei said:

Wonder where the greatest risk of being killed by a terrorist lies? In 'civilised' Europe or Alabama? 

Anyway, the problem with the block being too Far East is one we've seen played out numerous times before. The UK ends up in mildish dross with depressions running into the block and becoming slow moving near or to our west.

Plus we'll still have to listen to micro analysis of how the block is 25 miles further west and the GFS is 'correcting' to the ECM/UKMO/ GEM (depending on which is favoured today). 

Roll on the far away block getting even further away.

 

 

 

I best not reply to that bar saying just look at the facts re gun deaths in the USA.

I like the USA just think their gun laws suck. Anyway in terms of the outputs the block can help divert the jet if a ridge gets pushed nw as the trough approaches .

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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

With a proper easterly there certainly wouldn't be a problem with the sourced uppers not being cold enough!

image.thumb.png.ad46a3a66fc236a61beebd52dc04249e.png

+216hrs is a CRACKER'

image.thumb.png.9aa1779af0e7852ce70651621ff77ddd.png

:cold:

Edited by Purga
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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

ECM is delivering that beasterly shortwave underneath the high heading west. 

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset

Don`t tell me the ECM is going for another `Beast from the East`... well it has been a few years...

ECM0-216.GIF

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

You only want rid of the block if the jet starts riding over it.

The ECM gets the ridge crucially into east Greenland this is key.

Bedlam might break out in here at day ten if the trough disrupts se with the ridge strengthening to the nw.

 

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Click on my name - sorry, it was too long to fit here......
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire

The block east is a precursor to a Greenland high on this run, I think. Something that was also turning up in a few GFS perturbations.

ECH1-216_jue1.GIF

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey
Just now, bobbydog said:

is the ECM about to become the "most accurate", "best verifying", model ever?...

Nope, it's taking too much energy north after 144 hours.

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Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
1 minute ago, bobbydog said:

is the ECM about to become the "most accurate", "best verifying", model ever?...

Dont even go there.

Plenty of twists yet to come.

The UKMO will probably not be to our liking in the morning.

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Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside

CHOO CHOO!!!

ECH0-240.GIF.thumb.png.1dc97704ce8cf725981672bdab02f574.pngECH1-240-2.gif

ECM & UKMO similar at 144 so the above is:

mb.jpg.77c90fb33d4f783207221369c49f14a1.jpg

 

Edited by Day 10
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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
Just now, bobbydog said:

is the ECM about to become the "most accurate", "best verifying", model ever?...

yep, nailed on, going to happen. the rest of the models are all cannon fodder....

ECH1-240-2.thumb.gif.b7dd1c7b380552219886fb55b60c2c05.gif

:whistling:

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
1 minute ago, bobbydog said:

is the ECM about to become the "most accurate", "best verifying", model ever?...

Only until it reaches the 'reliable time-frame'!:santa-emoji:

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

JFF I would love to have seen day 11 and 12.

IMG_0318.PNG

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