Model output discussion - into 2018

[Frosty.]

Anyway, some decent charts for those who don't like cold from the Ecm 12z.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Could be worse , at least the Azores high gets flattened with the jet angling more se.

Good agreement overall for the pattern and at least we can move on from the ECMs recent debacle.

It will be a long time though before anyone falls for any more of its claptrap and any future ECM cold solutions should be ignored until there’s cross model agreement.

Yes nick..Ec joins Gfs in sending the jet into Europe..

PM attacks incoming

[Ali1977]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Could be worse , at least the Azores high gets flattened with the jet angling more se.

Good agreement overall for the pattern and at least we can move on from the ECMs recent debacle.

It will be a long time though before anyone falls for any more of its claptrap and any future ECM cold solutions should be ignored until there’s cross model agreement.

Claptrap MOGREPS too, they were in 95% agreement at one point for an East/SE’ly around mid next week!!  

Edited January 5, 2018 by Ali1977

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

39 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Even with these modified atlantic uppers; -8 the convective overtone would have snow @around 100 asl...

Quite a remarkable note...

As pm flow rarely deliver such minama!!

 

Something I mentioned earlier.  Down the line when Atlantic will break through watch for unusually cold uppers from the Atlantic.  I have a piece of that NE USA vortex in mind to gradually migrate towards us

 

BFTP   

[bluearmy]

4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Claptrap MOGREPS too, they were in 95% agreement at one point for an East/SE’ly around mid next week!! 

I’m pretty sure that mogreps was indicating an  e/ese flow for monday

lasy time I checked this was definitely happening-  I commented at the time that we had no idea how sustained that signal was 

trying to work out which part of the 8/10 day op output is giving us a steer is proving very tough !

Edited January 5, 2018 by bluearmy

[nick sussex]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Yes nick..Ec joins Gfs in sending the jet into Europe..

PM attacks incoming

Yes the jet at least is running se and milder conditions are relatively short lived .

Slushmargedon awaits! 

With the jet running se there’s always the chance things could develop more favourably .

We await the next ECM tease due tomorrow !

[tight isobar]

One of very few times i'll say..

Loving the jet rage...

As it surges the fridged cold out of seaboard usa..

Again the atlantic drops the density of cold but is sufficient for notable incursion +its looks that we will be on the correct side of the line.

I think we can now look to the unlikely source of the n-w rather than eastern side ..

And the snow event chances will begin to mount as the conveyor of pm air gets running...

Very unusual...but i think we'll take it.

And the north western source is of far better, cold exaction than our scandinavian/russian format.

[CK1981]

44 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Even with these modified atlantic uppers; -8 the convective overtone would have snow @around 100 asl...

Quite a remarkable note...

As pm flow rarely deliver such minama!!

 

That chart is showing -6 uppers over the U.K. though, with just a small patch of -8 over Ireland. I would have thought that’s quite normal for a PM flow.

[Purga]

5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Could be worse , at least the Azores high gets flattened with the jet angling more se.

Good agreement overall for the pattern and at least we can move on from the ECMs recent debacle.

It will be a long time though before anyone falls for any more of its claptrap and any future ECM cold solutions should be ignored until there’s cross model agreement.

A bit of ECM FI claptrap shaping up for you Nick

GFS not a million miles away at this timescale

 

[swfc]

Not the best of days from a cold perspective going forward. Kind of in a no mans land be it at least dry.ecm at ten days does suck you back in tho with the nhp looking pretty good. It does seem theres always something that just keeps dragging you back to follow the output be it in fi.

[tight isobar]

Just now, CK1981 said:

That chart is showing -6 uppers over the U.K. though, with just a small patch of -8 over Ireland. I would have thought that’s quite normal for a PM flow.

I can assure yourself if as modeled that flow takes a-hold you can expect a dip below -8 hpa as the jet dives and that stagnant US- FREEZER , air begin to awash eastward.

Again a very unusual situ unfolding ..

 

[Djdazzle]

12 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

 

It will be a long time though before anyone falls for any more of its claptrap and any future ECM cold solutions should be ignored until there’s cross model agreement.

If only that were true! It’s happened so many times before, yet people fall for it time and time again - even experienced posters who should know better!

[Daniel*]

100% agreement for Atlantic to blast through in GEFS ens mean so disappointing a late turnaround possible? I’ve not put out the white flag yet for the continental flow mid next week. However, it is not looking pretty. 

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

Apparently a lady rang the Met Office earlier this week and said there is an Easterly on the way.  Don't worry there isn't......

[CK1981]

9 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

I can assure yourself if as modeled that flow takes a-hold you can expect a dip below -8 hpa as the jet dives and that stagnant US- FREEZER , air begin to awash eastward.

Again a very unusual situ unfolding ..

 

I was merely observing the chart. Incidentally, when you move it on 12 hours, the uppers increase to -5 as the cold is modified by the Atlantic. Just saying what it’s currently showing!

Edited January 5, 2018 by CK1981

[tinybill]

but this could cause problems!!!

[January Snowstorm]

22 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Could be worse , at least the Azores high gets flattened with the jet angling more se.

Good agreement overall for the pattern and at least we can move on from the ECMs recent debacle.

It will be a long time though before anyone falls for any more of its claptrap and any future ECM cold solutions should be ignored until there’s cross model agreement.

I hope that's true Nick but to be fair it does happen every year. The slating of the gfs is unfair. In my years and years of model watching I've always felt the gfs is quite decent

[Frosty.]

Certainly trending colder towards the end of the Ecm 12z and beyond day 10 would be very interesting with that low dive bombing SE into mainland Europe.

[SMU]

36 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Hmm... no signs of Steve’s classic Easterly at 168hrs on the models tonight, especially the ECM! Perhaps it will be as much of a dead duck as the easterly the models and many were touting for this weekend a week ago? 

This weekends easterly is pretty much identical to the models forecast from day 1

[ArHu3]

26 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Could be worse , at least the Azores high gets flattened with the jet angling more se.

Good agreement overall for the pattern and at least we can move on from the ECMs recent debacle.

It will be a long time though before anyone falls for any more of its claptrap and any future ECM cold solutions should be ignored until there’s cross model agreement.

Last year we had cross model agreement and even the conservative  ukmo joint in at 144h but then a slight downgrade at 120h and everything fell apart at just 96h

Edited January 5, 2018 by ArHu3

[Optimus Prime]

17 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

I can assure yourself if as modeled that flow takes a-hold you can expect a dip below -8 hpa as the jet dives and that stagnant US- FREEZER , air begin to awash eastward.

Again a very unusual situ unfolding ..

 

The only unusual thing about that situation is wintry showers mig...err actually pretty normal for a westerly from the origin of the source.

Edited January 5, 2018 by Optimus Prime

[comet]

At least some good may come out of all this and that being that posters might stop trawling out the lesser models like um GEM perhaps. Although to be fair its been no worse than the ecm. I suppose it also means that the ecm op run has not lost it bias for amplification.

[Sweatyman]

11 minutes ago, tinybill said:

but this could cause problems!!!

Never ever will that one turn out??

[nick sussex]

3 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

I hope that's true Nick but to be fair it does happen every year. The slating of the gfs is unfair. In my years and years of model watching I've always felt the gfs is quite decent

The GFS has a flat upstream bias and the ECM is still prone to over amplifying.

What the ECM tends to do though is to drop colder solutions before they get into the T144hrs hrs that’s why it’s verification generally stays at number one at that timeframe.

 

[frosty ground]

1 minute ago, comet said:

At least some good may come out of all this and that being that posters might stop trawling out the lesser models like um GEM perhaps. Although to be fair its been no worse than the ecm. I suppose it also means that the ecm op run has not lost it bias for amplification.

No GFS either then..... or why not ban all model output past day 5.

Or maybe just maybe people can use this thread to discuss model output without being sniped at by lesser contributors because afterall thats what this threaf is for right.