Model output discussion - into 2018

[beng]

2 minutes ago, karyo said:

A slight improvement from the ICON. Although a low pressure makes it through the UK from the Atlantic, it then dies over the north sea and a ridge of high pressure from the southwest tries to link with heights to the northeast at 135 hours. It may not make it in this run but the Atlantic is slower and further west.

Looks fairly similar to this morning's UKMO at first glance

Edited January 5, 2018 by beng

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, karyo said:

A slight improvement from the ICON. Although a low pressure makes it through the UK from the Atlantic, it then dies over the north sea and a ridge of high pressure from the southwest tries to link with heights to the northeast at 135 hours. It may not make it in this run but the Atlantic is slower and further west.

I was only joking yesterday when I said people would start hanging their hats on the ICON output

[karyo]

Just now, beng said:

Looks fairly similar to this morning's UKMO

Yes indeed. Also the pressure falls nicely across central and eastern Med.

[karyo]

Just now, CreweCold said:

I was only joking yesterday when I said people would start hanging their hats on the ICON output

I actually check it daily because it is the first to come out.

[warrenb]

Oh now I quite like the Met 144

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, karyo said:

I actually check it daily because it is the first to come out.

I must admit I do that too...not that I take much notice of it

[beng]

 

UKMO 144 - similar to this morning - just need a bit more energy SE under the block

Edited January 5, 2018 by beng
added extra info

[warrenb]

Looks like baby steps back to blocking

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, warrenb said:

Looks like baby steps back to blocking

The issue is going to be getting any cold to back west.

The positives at the moment are that the AO looks fairly negative and western Russia looks to cool down fairly nicely

Edited January 5, 2018 by CreweCold

[warrenb]

Just now, CreweCold said:

The issue is going to be getting any cold to back west.

The positives at the moment is that the AO looks fairly negative and western Russia looks to cool down fairly nicely

OK pigeon baby steps

Edited January 5, 2018 by warrenb

[tight isobar]

And the progression sharpens..

Scandi heights are eyeing to shake hands with those at the pole...

We get a small tweak and expansion each run now and the block tightens.

This with italian/lows merging shutting off the heights...and the rush north deepens.....

Crucial point ;..

Is exactly how the base-euro lows play to put the squeeze in..

Then we eye developments..

The ecm will be of interest in these portions...

Some big positives...flagging.

Edited January 5, 2018 by tight isobar

[karyo]

14 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I must admit I do that too...not that I take much notice of it

Well, this afternoon the ICON and the GFS look very similar.

Edited January 5, 2018 by karyo

[Day 10]

2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

And the progression sharpens..

Scandi heights are eyeing to shake hands with those at the pole...

We get a small tweak and expansion each run now and the block tightens.

This with italian/lows merging shutting off the heights...and the rush north deepens.....

Very poetic

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, karyo said:

Well, this afternoon the ICON and the GFS look very similar.

And that's good considering the GFS was being bashed for being 'useless' not two days ago? 

[karyo]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

And that's good considering the GFS was being bashed for being 'useless' not two days ago? 

I wasn't one of the bashers! haha

I think there is a possibility for the Atlantic systems to correct slightly westwards in future runs and this can make our outlook colder at least at the surface. For example by Friday next week the gfs has much of central Europe under subzero uppers (around the -2 mark) which with hardly any wind under the high pressure can lead to ice days there.

Edited January 5, 2018 by karyo

[Chesil View]

The lesson of the last few days is the age old lesson in weather forecasting.

Namely anything beyond 7 days at the very most is pure speculation and even between 5 and 7 days is open to doubt.

educated guesses can be made but that is all they are and all they can be  just educated guesses.

Teleconnections can help but only in broadbrush ways due to infant state of the study. The continued study of these however iis the only real way to improve the linger range situation.

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, karyo said:

I wasn't one of the bashers! haha

I'll let you off

In all seriousness this is a decent chart in as much as we're seeing some WAA to where we need it...not too far east as has been the case in recent runs

[bluearmy]

With the polar field solution looking like it may also influence the evolution, this is getting even more complicated!  

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, bluearmy said:

With the polar field solution looking like it may also influence the evolution, this is getting even more complicated!  

Something MAY be surfacing for a little later on in the month but it's all very tentative and complicated at present as you say.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Can see the route to a boom moment from here...troughing detaches from parent vortex, heads SE allowing HP to extend up through Greenland and connecting to that HP around the N Pole from the better WAA earlier on in the run

Plenty of possibilities as we progress further into January...this E'ly fiasco was the elephant in the room, a red herring you may say.

[Snowmadsam]

Just now, CreweCold said:

Can see the route to a boom moment from here...troughing detaches from parent vortex, heads SE allowing HP to extend up through Greenland and connecting to that HP around the N Pole from the better WAA earlier on in the run

Plenty of possibilities as we progress further into January...this E'ly fiasco was the elephant in the room, a red herring you may say.

I am literally waiting for that Low to shift it's backside out the way, then I think we know what is gonna happen.....slide into that gap after the LP has cleared....

[tight isobar]

A very intreresting development in latter frames!!!.

Canadian lobe displacement,..

And as mentioned previous..

Heights now stable @the pole and locked off!!!.

The pac ridge also again firing up as waa get a back burn..a perhaps good player later on for holding paterns out east!!!..

Lots to be eyeing now going forwards!

Edited January 5, 2018 by tight isobar

[shaky]

Arpege ties in with carinthians thoughts!!looks better than gfs and ukmo at 114 hours with a nice string block over scandinavia and trough desruption south west of the uk!!

[Northern Sky]

The ECM might be very naughty teasing us all with it's FI easterly promises at 200hrs + but the GFS is just as bad with it's perpetual phantom cold zonality. I just wish that for once charts like this would become reality, but they always get modified to no lower than -2/-3 uppers.

[Man With Beard]

I'm prepared to call the T120-T192 period now, and that is to say I think we will not get an easterly for more than one day.

My reason is the incoming pulse of the Azores High. It will push NEwards, pushing any trough with it. Not enough strength in heights towards Scandi to stop a sinking of any high there SE. 

Beyond that too far out.