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Model output discussion - into 2018

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A new thread as we head into the new year + introducing a new (hopefully regular) thread option..

As usual, please use this thread to discuss the models in general. We understand that at this time of year, a lot of the focus is on the chances of cold weather, regardless of range. Sometimes this leads to posts looking at other weather types at closer range getting a bit lost. So for that sort of thing, we've started a short-range thread, specifically for looking at the model output between 0 and 72 hours. (Please note, you are still welcome to discuss that in this thread if you wish, and can even cross-post should you want to). 

Want to have a bit of banter or a ramp and moan only loosely related to the models?
The banter thread is for you:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

Want to talk about the weather in your part of the country?
The regional threads are the place for you:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Want to view the model outputs?
You can get all the major ones here on Netweather:

GFS
GEFS Ensembles
ECMWF
ECMWF EPS
NetWx-SR
NetWx-MR
Met-Office
Fax
GEM
GFS Hourly

Snow forecast and precip type
Model Comparison
Global Jet Stream
Stratosphere

Happy New Year!

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Good morning all. I think we're no closer to dissecting the outcome of the Scandi heights attempt after the 00Zs and the 06Zs. I really do not agree with the poster who said we can't look beyond D3/D4. It all depends on the set-up. A strong zonal pattern or a strong ridge can be predicted much further out. But when you have low pressure headed for a straight-on collision with heights in front, you can't be sure whether the low will go one way, or the other, or split. It still (as it did yesterday) looks as if the low will probably go north, but it's still also close enough to be in the "doubtful" category. That's why there are 6 clusters after T240 this morning, and also a big split on the GEFS!!

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lets hope some will happen for winter2018

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Edited by Dennis
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Latest GFS moving towards GEM evolution towards the end of next week. Not a classic slider, more a sinking low. However, looks like a developing NE ly in its wakes for much of the British Isles. Of course we cannot at this stage predict how long it will last and will any cold advection be pronounced. The upper wind profile which I view is the 300mb flow and that digs well south in the Eastern Atlantic and produces a sharp upper trough over UK and France, which is what we cold lover want to see. Can the developing Scandi high strengthen through the upper layers, not sure  and that's the million dollar question to a route to a more than transient cold spell. We wait for the next runs !

 C

GFSOPEU06_168_1.png

Edited by carinthian
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Fail to see why models like the gem are trawled out to muddy the waters of an already uncertain outlook. I know some look to find a model run that supports what they want to see perhaps, but so far it is only the gem and the 06z gfs op run that show anywhere near the amplification to support the slider south/ south east trajectory and leave us in a east/ north easterly airflow for more than a day or so (ECM op run). Quite frankly this does not fill me with any confidence in the pattern going forward. With the higher resolution op runs struggling I doubt whether the ens. eps etc will over much useful guidance either.

Fingers crossed I am wrong and the 06z is the new trend setter but I doubt that very much.

 

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12 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Good morning all. I think we're no closer to dissecting the outcome of the Scandi heights attempt after the 00Zs and the 06Zs. I really do not agree with the poster who said we can't look beyond D3/D4. It all depends on the set-up. A strong zonal pattern or a strong ridge can be predicted much further out. But when you have low pressure headed for a straight-on collision with heights in front, you can't be sure whether the low will go one way, or the other, or split. It still (as it did yesterday) looks as if the low will probably go north, but it's still also close enough to be in the "doubtful" category. That's why there are 6 clusters after T240 this morning, and also a big split on the GEFS!!

Thank you MWB 

that was me that said about not looking beyond D3 D4. 

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4 minutes ago, comet said:

Fail to see why models like the gem are trawled out to muddy the waters of an already uncertain outlook. I know some look to find a model run that supports what they want to see perhaps, but so far it is only the gem and the 06z gfs op run that show anywhere near the amplification to support the slider south/ south east trajectory and leave us in a east/ north easterly airflow for more than a day or so (ECM op run). Quite frankly this does not fill me with any confidence in the pattern going forward. With the higher resolution op runs struggling I doubt whether the ens. eps etc will over much useful guidance either.

Fingers crossed I am wrong and the 06z is the new trend setter but I doubt that very much.

 

In which case, why object to a high res decent model like GEM being highlighted? 

Fwiw, the eps run at 14km out to T240. The gfs op is at 13km. The ec at 9km and the other ops between 15 and 18km

so if we are going on resolution alone, the 50 eps members are as useful as the gfs op?? 

The icelandic view eps clusters are available here : http://brunnur.vedur.is/kort/ec-ens/2017/12/30/00/

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11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

 

really hope to see one of the stellar runs appear on an op , soon.

I'm sure we will, I'm certainly not seeing the type of outlook we have seen all too often in  recent winters, ie..prolonged mild filth!!..the current models look far more interesting from a coldies (majority) point of view!:santa-emoji:

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

In which case, why object to a high res decent model like GEM being highlighted? 

Fwiw, the eps run at 14km out to T240. The gfs op is at 13km. The ec at 9km and the other ops between 15 and 18km

so if we are going on resolution alone, the 50 eps members are as useful as the gfs op?? 

The icelandic view eps clusters are available here : http://brunnur.vedur.is/kort/ec-ens/2017/12/30/00/

Exeters view is, on balance a positive update for coldies :)

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Just now, northwestsnow said:

Exeters view is, on balance a positive update for coldies :)

Not so sure, they mention a CONTINUED risk of snow for N and central parts in the 16-30 but they only mention wintry showers in the 6-15 so that suggests any slider with frontal snow next weekend is off the menu and it will be WNW winds, so not sure that its a continued risk at all during the extended range.

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Hi blue I sent sticker as unable to quote as that thread closed. 

 

And there is exactly why I kept saying ignore F1 or near it. Just plain simple too far out. 

The cold easterlies were too far out . Charts changed to show those gone. Yet again far reaches F1 shows on last couple of frames easterly large Scandinavia high BUT too far away. 

 

Just focus on charts 3-4 days away and even those can change. 

No one can predict the weather that far out , me or anyone else here at met office or anywhere . 

Patterns switch run to run , yes of course if cold devolps then those that GUESSED the casino correctly will be self proclaimed weather messiahs !! 

Do you mind if we don't ..... will be extremely boring in here 90% of the time if we do.  Accept that op charts beyond day 6/7 shouldn't be dissected and over analysed. Rarely happens anyway. Most people on here know that an operational past day 7 is not going to verify. But it should still be discussed as there is merit in working out what parts of the output are more probable than others etc etc.  I think this place does a pretty good job in expectation management. 

the mood changes - sure, but that's just the little kid in all of us desperate to see snow covered vistas from our front door.......apart from knocker and secretly he does really ......

 

hi blue 

I responded by way of a sticker 

 

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7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not so sure, they mention a CONTINUED risk of snow for N and central parts in the 16-30 but they only mention wintry showers in the 6-15 so that suggests any slider with frontal snow next weekend is off the menu and it will be WNW winds, so not sure that its a continued risk at all during the extended range.

'As we go into the first weekend of the New Year the weather is likely to turn colder for many northern and western areas, and here there could be some wintry showers as well as overnight frosts. More frequent showers or perhaps longer spells of rain could continue across the south at first, before colder and probably drier conditions arrive here. It will be windy at times, with a risk of gales at first. The following week is likely to start cold with overnight frosts, but more unsettled conditions may begin to develop later.'

And

'The rain and showers will be most frequent in the west, with a continued risk of snow across northern and central parts in particular. '

If you have elevation in NW England that set up sounds very good to me?

BTW WNW winds for your location is as good as it gets- lets see how things unfold.

Edited by northwestsnow
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As always can and keep Meto musings to the correct thread cheers.

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

'As we go into the first weekend of the New Year the weather is likely to turn colder for many northern and western areas, and here there could be some wintry showers as well as overnight frosts. More frequent showers or perhaps longer spells of rain could continue across the south at first, before colder and probably drier conditions arrive here. It will be windy at times, with a risk of gales at first. The following week is likely to start cold with overnight frosts, but more unsettled conditions may begin to develop later.'

And

'The rain and showers will be most frequent in the west, with a continued risk of snow across northern and central parts in particular. '

If you have elevation in NW England that set up sounds very good to me?

Whilst I do see your point, as you say that is location and elevation based so nothing for the vast majority of members, and even from an IMBY point of view, these setups have promised and  delivered not large falls of snow over the course of December, although some decent falls only a couple of miles away but that's 1000-1200ft - the vast majority of HABITABLE places even in the pennines / Cumbria / N Yorkshire are not at these kinds of elevations.

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7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

'As we go into the first weekend of the New Year the weather is likely to turn colder for many northern and western areas, and here there could be some wintry showers as well as overnight frosts. More frequent showers or perhaps longer spells of rain could continue across the south at first, before colder and probably drier conditions arrive here. It will be windy at times, with a risk of gales at first. The following week is likely to start cold with overnight frosts, but more unsettled conditions may begin to develop later.'

And

'The rain and showers will be most frequent in the west, with a continued risk of snow across northern and central parts in particular. '

If you have elevation in NW England that set up sounds very good to me?

In other words it could be a lot worse! The outlook is loaded with wintry potential..nuff said!:D..I think I must be looking at different models from many others so far today!:D

 

Edited by Frosty.
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No more please on meto extended forecasts or they will magically disappear. We already have a thread open for them. If used constructively against posted charts then it's exceptable within a post.

Edited by Polar Maritime
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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Whilst I do see your point, as you say that is location and elevation based so nothing for the vast majority of members, and even from an IMBY point of view, these setups have promised and  delivered not large falls of snow over the course of December, although some decent falls only a couple of miles away but that's 1000-1200ft - the vast majority of HABITABLE places even in the pennines / Cumbria / N Yorkshire are not at these kinds of elevations.

Absolutely Feb :)

I was just highlighting that there might be opportunities as we move through next weekend- there is a discussion on the North west regional thread about the Irish sea and the modification it has been causing to the region.

I agree about the meto updates -i think they are relevant to this thread too, but the mods do not so with that in mind i apologize for posting it this morning.

 

Edited by northwestsnow
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While everyone seems to be bogged-down with analysing the hour-by-hour 'evolution' at day 10, I am reminded of an unpleasant spell of ENE'erlies from January 1969: it was seldom cold enough for snow to fall and led to three or four days' persistent rain and sleet...The rest of that winter, however, provided oodles of snow. So, write nothing off; it's far too early for that! :santa-emoji:

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