Model output discussion - into 2018

[stewfox]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Amen to that, like a bloody playground in here. 

On the cusp of some cracking winter synoptics and people are at each other’s throats. Who cares who was right/wrong indifferent. Personally anyone who has a view and is willing to put a case forward has my attention, regardless of the eventual outcome.

 

This could be known as the IMBY winter with folks from Brighton saying  " glad you got some" on many occasions  . Folks from the north don't post snow pictures.

GFS18z T168 chart

 

Birmingham 16 Jan 2018

 

Brighton 16 Jan 2018

 

M4 all to Play for (sleet)

[Catacol]

1 hour ago, blizzard81 said:

Difference = original statement states we could have potentially seen a decent day 10 chart as early as today. Statement tonight states earliest we will see a decent day 10 chart is 2 to 3 days away. Call me picky but it is a little like the models delaying any decent potential. 

I wouldnt normally bite - but for sake of clarity and accuracy (because I hate it when people start to quote and refer incorrectly) there are precisely 25 hours between my 2 posts. The one yesterday did NOT imply that good charts would be present today. If you think that 25 hours means I am putting the clock back then so be it - though if you wind back to my post on Sunday you will see I'm sticking to the same timeline when I said 20th Jan or maybe a few days later. I've said multiple times that precise timelines are difficult and subject to variation... and we can debate the causes of that variation (eg MJO last week has progressed more slowly to phase 3 than cpc predicted a week back) - but if we have a debate then let's do it on what was actually said rather than a reference to a phantom statement that doesnt exist leading to an unsubstantiated implication that things always get put back and the analysis isnt worth doing. If you want to be sceptical as to the value of signal analysis then that is absolutely your right - but it isnt your place to misquote.

[john mac]

On 07/01/2018 at 16:13, PLANET THANET said:

karlos says close to brilliant and snowman says a downgrade in the next

Quote

 

post, both at 144 ?????

 

[Snowmadsam]

Wow, goodness me. It’s 11pm. Why on earth are we all screaming and shouting at each other. Come on guys, let’s chill. If models are really frustrating you then simply press that button on your device to put it into sleep mode and recharge the batteries. 

An interesting 18z tonight, has it been to the pub or is it on dry January? But it has been nice to see something different for a change. Goes in line with what teleconnection posters on here have been saying. 

I’m off to rest me eyes.

Things like this can get frustrating I understand but if you are that desperate for snow. You can always buy a snow machine or move. Or even put your head in the freezer to see what -20 feels like (but not for long otherwise you will most likely die! - 5 seconds at most!) 

 

[A Frayed Knot]

6 minutes ago, Snowmadsam said:

Wow, goodness me. It’s 11pm

12 am more like @Snowmadsam

[BlueHedgehog074]

Back on topic please, or more posts will end up mysteriously disappearing ?

[northwestsnow]

delete was just trying to lighten the  atmosphere- freds post just changed my mood..

Edited January 10, 2018 by northwestsnow

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Easterly, SE’ly, NW’ly will it won’t it....next run is crucial, winter is over until next decade, you were wrong, you are the bleaker.......guys and girls it matters little who calls what..have your view and let it evolve and move on....not getting Synoptics spot on isn’t failing.

10 hours ago I left Swansea to come home for a day to see my wife and son.  Been in Swansea as my dad was poorly and been in hospital since before Xmas.  I thought when I kissed him fairwell that I would be back to see him on Thursday.  He passed away 2 hours ago...and I’m 200 miles away.......now THAT is failing......

I will be gone for a while...

 

BFTP

[Snowmadsam]

3 minutes ago, A Frayed Knot said:

12 am more like @Snowmadsam

I’ll edit every hour. You will not find me waking up for the 00z however. I’m 23. A growing boy and I like my sleep!

Is the 18z a new trend?! Find out tomorrow! (Who doesn’t love a good cliffhanger!)

[northwestsnow]

Just now, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Easterly, SE’ly, NW’ly will it won’t it....next run is crucial, winter is over until next decade, you were wrong, you are the bleaker.......guys and girls it matters little who calls what..have your view and let it evolve and move on....not getting Synoptics spot on isn’t failing.

10 hours ago I left Swansea to come home for a day to see my wife and son.  Been in Swansea as my dad was poorly and been in hospital since before Xmas.  I thought when I kissed him fairwell that I would be back to see him on Thursday.  He passed away 2 hours ago...and I’m 200 miles away.......now THAT is failing......

I will be gone for a while...

 

BFTP

so sorry fred,take care buddy..

[BlackburnChris]

Just for example for Nw England had 9 days of snow showing on 6z Gfs . 7 on 12z and 2 on 18z .... Point being nothing's been decided yet .

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Easterly, SE’ly, NW’ly will it won’t it....next run is crucial, winter is over until next decade, you were wrong, you are the bleaker.......guys and girls it matters little who calls what..have your view and let it evolve and move on....not getting Synoptics spot on isn’t failing.

10 hours ago I left Swansea to come home for a day to see my wife and son.  Been in Swansea as my dad was poorly and been in hospital since before Xmas.  I thought when I kissed him fairwell that I would be back to see him on Thursday.  He passed away 2 hours ago...and I’m 200 miles away.......now THAT is failing......

I will be gone for a while...

 

BFTP

So sorry mate - lost my mom in April when I had declined (didn't want to borrow any more money off her) to go back home on a number of occasions, its firkin horrible I know.

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, BlackburnChris said:

Just for example for Nw England had 9 days of snow showing on 6z Gfs . 7 on 12z and 2 on 18z .... Point being nothing's been decided yet .

Agreed- the trend is a bit worrying tho, by those stats i wouldnt be suprised if it says apply factor 50.by the time next week arrives..

You are right tho, it could revert back tomorrow, we need GFS/EC to show a ukmo style run in the morning - unless they do i would suggest we will need to be really high to see snow, probably well above my 200m anyway..

Edited January 10, 2018 by northwestsnow

[Snow Queen one]

Sorry to hear your news BFTP.  Chin up thinking of you.  X

I second others on here Steve has been very helpful.  We lose good people when some of the posters here insist on arguing and slamming people down.  I have been here for many years and choose not to post on here as I do not feel I want to leave myself SAY to be shot down by others.  Kudos to all our very informative posters (you know who you are)  you do us proud and I have been able to learn a lot from you.

Now onto the models and I was looking forward to being busy on the SACRA thread but alas it seems I am going to have to wait a while

Peace

Sq1

Edited January 10, 2018 by Snow Queen one
Word filter

[bobbydog]

6 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Easterly, SE’ly, NW’ly will it won’t it....next run is crucial, winter is over until next decade, you were wrong, you are the bleaker.......guys and girls it matters little who calls what..have your view and let it evolve and move on....not getting Synoptics spot on isn’t failing.

10 hours ago I left Swansea to come home for a day to see my wife and son.  Been in Swansea as my dad was poorly and been in hospital since before Xmas.  I thought when I kissed him fairwell that I would be back to see him on Thursday.  He passed away 2 hours ago...and I’m 200 miles away.......now THAT is failing......

I will be gone for a while...

 

BFTP

sorry to hear that fred, life can be cruel but you can't be everywhere at once, dont blame yourself. take care mate.

[BlackburnChris]

12 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Agreed- the trend is a bit worrying tho, by those stats i wouldnt be suprised if it says apply factor 50.by the time next week arrives..

You are right tho, it could revert back tomorrow, we need GFS/EC to show a ukmo style run in the morning - unless they do i would suggest we will need to be really high to see snow, probably well above my 200m anyway..

lol trend is worrying ha , but seriously all that low pressure pushing SE can only help any further development of the Scandi block 

[SLEETY]

Thought the gfs was a great run,people nit picking again,because it doesn’t show snow in their backyard or whatever,anyway it will all change on the next runs,the weather never stops moving 

 

[Purga]

There are some cold runs showing up in the 18z GEFS

The T2's are pretty chilly throughout with very few breaking into double figures for the whole run

 

[ukpaul]

55 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Agreed- the trend is a bit worrying tho, by those stats i wouldnt be suprised if it says apply factor 50.by the time next week arrives..

You are right tho, it could revert back tomorrow, we need GFS/EC to show a ukmo style run in the morning - unless they do i would suggest we will need to be really high to see snow, probably well above my 200m anyway..

It's two things, the system isn't as deep on the 18z and the winds are lighter. I'm not sure they are going to return now and I can see the low just getting flabbier and hanging around giving gloom and the occasional shower of rain in coastal areas with just the HIghlands getting their usual dumping (ignore the GFS snow, it still shows it at -5 and that's wishful thinking). It's the uppers being quickly tempered that really makes things more marginal. the story of our weather really, all the interesting stuff gets mixed out as we near the time and we're left looking hopefully at FI. It's such a rare setup that it would be nice to see actually occur.

Edited January 10, 2018 by ukpaul

[Rocheydub]

1 hour ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Easterly, SE’ly, NW’ly will it won’t it....next run is crucial, winter is over until next decade, you were wrong, you are the bleaker.......guys and girls it matters little who calls what..have your view and let it evolve and move on....not getting Synoptics spot on isn’t failing.

10 hours ago I left Swansea to come home for a day to see my wife and son.  Been in Swansea as my dad was poorly and been in hospital since before Xmas.  I thought when I kissed him fairwell that I would be back to see him on Thursday.  He passed away 2 hours ago...and I’m 200 miles away.......now THAT is failing......

I will be gone for a while...

 

BFTP

Fred, all I can do is offer my deepest sympathies as I understand how you’re feeling. As we say in Ireland, Ar dheis de go raibh a anam. Sincere sympathies. I hope all your memories are happy ones. 

[ukpaul]

Jist did a quick check through the last four GFS runs just to show the proof of that uppers problem. Each of the first three runs had seven or eight frames where half or more of GB was under -6 uppers or lower. On the 18z just one frame. It may only be one or two degrees but, as we know, it makes a hell of a difference. 

Edited January 10, 2018 by ukpaul

[Daniel*]

Sorry to hear Fred he’ll be looking down at you from now on, what a good son you were ! I find the best way for things to go back to “normal” is to try to keep things as normal as possible, it’s not easy but beneficial.

Makes weather sound a tad irrelevant nonetheless it’s got a bit catty in here, come on I know sometimes your ‘outside’ frustrations may manifest in this virtual reality. I don’t think CC or SM were neither necessarily 100% right to be fair absolutely no one has truly managed to forecast this faultlessly, and well if you did I’m spellbound. John Hammond himself was tweeting ‘a major cold spell’ not so long ago, even professionals do get caught out. Tide can change very quickly, I feel those with a good understand of teleconnections (I don’t) are able to know more beyond models and tend to be a lot more successful, I must say initially I was sceptical but the proof is in the pudding. I encourage everyone who has a rich understanding of these processes to post, such as Tamara to continue posting, for the benefit of the majority who are eager to further their own understanding and make it a better environment for the more technically able to perhaps post. Despite the quite occasional snide, undeserved comments do know many of you, your input is appreciated immensely. The forum wouldn’t be the way it would be without you, not giving names but there’s loads that stand out to me. That includes the less able we all make up this community let’s treat each over with respect it’s not hard is it?  

[alexisj9]

3 minutes ago, ukpaul said:

Jist did a quick check through the last four GFS runs just to show the proof of that uppers problem. Each of the first three runs had seven or eight frames where half or more of GB was under -6 uppers or lower. On the 18z just one frame. It may only be one or two degrees but, as we know, it makes a hell of a difference. 

The cold will be there, it's building now. 

[A Frayed Knot]

Just Read back ' Sorry to hear that Dreaded news Fred ' i lost both parents at a young age and it kills me inside ' God is on your side indeed ' he only takes the Special ones on Earth 1st ' He will leave the human filth to judge upon themselves and let them fight to the end ' All will turn out a wee bit better for you in time ' a roller coaster ride for a while but with friends around you ' things will be easier i should imagine .

 

[ukpaul]

24 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

The cold will be there, it's building now. 

On some ensemble members maybe still but, once those lower uppers coming from the west have gone, i think they aren’t coming back. The sterile cold shown from the east is okay if you just want dry cold but I don’t think people are looking for that.

Should have mentioned, I only looked up to 240h in the high res, not FI.

Edited January 10, 2018 by ukpaul