Model output discussion - into 2018

[SMU]

9 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

no, its not going to rebuild, we won't be getting an easterly out of it as you suggested over the last couple of days but if it insists on hanging on, it might send the jet under to give us a better chance down the line and sooner rather than later

That was always the expectation anyway in terms of energy sliding SE under the high - the models have already significantly backtracked on the Atlantic over the last 24-48 hours-

If people in the west /NW want snow they need the Scandi High to support the acute NW flow -

In term of the Easterly I’m happy with the forecast - the call was 5-6 days ago now when no model was on board - now every model is on board & still pushing west- it’s only the depth of the upper air people are frustrated at -

How many countless members were calling the GFS a success - When it looked like this

yet now this is the reality 

 

At the end of the day it seems you & a couple of others keep stressing out about the Easterly- everyone else is letting it evolve ...

[snowbob]

5 minutes ago, Jason M said:

Whilst the initial easterly is as dead as a dodo (was it ever even alive?), the GFS as shown here does signpost a possible route forward that may be of more interest. 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=222&mode=0

Even from this point there are no guarantees but I'd take that as a starting point.

To be fair don’t think you can say was it ever alive

as posts and charts were posted to say it was

sorry mods

Edited January 9, 2018 by snowbob

[SLEETY]

 Id rather take the Beasterly gfs is showing in fl instead even if it doesn’t appear very long lasting

 

[feb1991blizzard]

Strat warming even more aggressive on this run.

[Jason M]

Funny watching how GFS thrashes around trying to revert to climatology as soon as it goes low res after 240. 

Very positive run this evening for once. 

 

 

[nick sussex]

Nice GFS 18 hrs run I would have liked to see the trough sink se a little quicker but it finally gets there.

Hands up who still wants a PM flow slush fest! 

This is only possible because the block hangs on. I’d rather take my chances and gamble slush for a bigger prize .

 

[bluearmy]

Gfs op low res drops the ball 

[Purga]

FI again with some cracking eye candy

[Matthew Gill]

-8 getting in there

[andymusic]

finally gets there in the end - but way out in fI for the moment - could just be 18z pub run, or maybe it's onto something - but what a long road to take

[doctor32]

So the block to the east still the main player to where we go into next week. Really need it to insert itself a little more to push the main pv trough more se when it eventually arrives. This may lead to trough going into europe on a more southerly/ south easterly route to allow high to build over it to introduce the goods as per gfs 18z

Maybe just maybe

Edited January 9, 2018 by doctor32

[Rocheydub]

Oneupmanship sickens me. This is a weather model discussion thread, and we're discussing the weather models, fair play Steve Murr You got the backtrack to the models backing westward and confirming your theory, but I still don't see the beast from the east you alluded to. I admire your excellent knowledge of model behaviour and I admire your resilience sticking to your guns, but until the NWP start to show this beast from the east, I will not be convinced... I have seen too many failures for my liking. I don't do well from NW'lys either, and would love a E'ly, but I just am not convinced.

[ukpaul]

Sadly, another step back for a more organised trough, poorer uppers, disconnected from the colder feed that made the previous GFS runs more effective, weaker winds. The general idea is good but I fear that the much more marginal setup as per the 18z will stick and it will be rain apart for Cumbria and Scotland, -5 instead of -6 or 7 isn’t going to cut it, especially without elevation. To add insult to injury another weak, dry block over us to finish. At least we have a SSW...

Still, only six hours until we get another solution, maybe this is a transition that builds the heights to our north and we can get a stronger feature across us again later. 

Edited January 9, 2018 by ukpaul

[bobbydog]

12 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

That was always the expectation anyway in terms of energy sliding SE under the high - the models have already significantly backtracked on the Atlantic over the last 24-48 hours-

If people in the west /NW want snow they need the Scandi High to support the acute NW flow -

In term of the Easterly I’m happy with the forecast - the call was 5-6 days ago now when no model was on board - now every model is on board & still pushing west- it’s only the depth of the upper air people are frustrated at -

How many countless members were calling the GFS a success - When it looked like this

yet now this is the reality 

 

At the end of the day it seems you & a couple of others keep stressing out about the Easterly- everyone else is letting it evolve ...

i'm not stressing about it, i've just never thought the block was strong enough to deliver a significant easterly, which it isn't. (though i would have loved it to) i did hope however, that it would send the jet south as the atlantic came in along with those very cold uppers and thats what the 18z is hinting at. in doing so, it could leave us which a chance of a greenland high, or at least allow an easterly flow along the northern flanks of LP systems. i just think the scandi high needed a kick up the @rse to give us something better along the line.

edit- there you go-

something along those lines. first hints of that "something better" i mentioned.

Edited January 9, 2018 by bobbydog

[nick sussex]

As that saying goes you can put lipstick on slush but it’s still slush! 

The GFS 18 hrs run solution isn’t really that outlandish it’s the same overall pattern as earlier but just a different view of the trough disruption .

We’ll see in the morning whether this trend continues .

Edited January 9, 2018 by nick sussex

[Purga]

10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Never verify but that's a boom set up by day 10.5

Just wait until everything corrects south BA

[Jason M]

Just now, nick sussex said:

As that saying goes you can put lipstick on slush but it’s still slush! 

The GFS solution isn’t really that outlandish it’s the same overall pattern as earlier but just a different view of the trough disruption .

We’ll see in the morning whether this trend continues .

The best thing about this evolution is that it makes sense from where we are now. By day 9 its so good that it takes low res the rest of the run to undo all the good work 

[Singularity]

Well we finally get to see what could happen if we retain the blocking to the NE and then the Pacific amplification keeps at bay the next major trough that preceding runs have kept on throwing into the N. Atlantic.

The height rises joining from the N Atlantic days 9-10 have that forced look about them. Maybe a bit hasty in the response but the broad idea makes sense. Usual bias issues lower-res but manages to produce some interesting charts regardless.

This is of course assuming that we see the anticipated GLAAM changes with MJO assist. Catacol has well summarised the caveats there.

[fromey]

8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Strat warming even more aggressive on this run.

Unfortunately a tweet from Ian f said Glosea5 is only showing a low probability in the ensembles so I wouldn’t go pining your hopes on a SSW at the moment 

things could change though

[Cheshire Freeze]

10 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

At the end of the day it seems you & a couple of others keep stressing out about the Easterly- everyone else is letting it evolve ...

With all due respect Steve, it is your assertions that have evolved-

The modelling has collectively moved to a middle ground scenario, as was always going to be the case. No deep cold E'ly and an Atlantic trying to make inroads and meeting some resistance. What happens beyond this week is irrelevant in terms of your predictions last week. The pattern going forward was always going to be of interest (something that has been signposted fairly strongly by a few on here).

The E'ly that was shown (cold uppers inclusive) on the ECM and GEM at 192 last week has failed and not arrived...this despite you telling us day after day the other modelling would evolve to it. 

 

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, fromey said:

Unfortunately a tweet from Ian f said Glosea5 is only showing a low probability in the ensembles so I wouldn’t go pining your hopes on a SSW at the moment 

things could change though

Yes _ I posted about that in the strat thread.

[SMU]

2 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

Oneupmanship sickens me. This is a weather model discussion thread, and we're discussing the weather models, fair play Steve Murr You got the backtrack to the models backing westward and confirming your theory, but I still don't see the beast from the east you alluded to. I admire your excellent knowledge of model behaviour and I admire your resilience sticking to your guns, but until the NWP start to show this beast from the east, I will not be convinced... I have seen too many failures for my liking. I don't do well from NW'lys either, and would love a E'ly, but I just am not convinced.

No worries- 

the issue’ I have is nowt to do with 1 upmanship - it’s the blind comments regarding this upcoming continental flow like it’s dead & buried etc etc

when it is getting to a stage where the aforementioned dead & buried Easterly can still have an impact on the front coming in from the NW 

The is enough available surface ( & indeed upper cold ) to support snow in this front if we can squeeze a bit more depth in the first place -

Yes a massive convective flow isn’t going to happen however the next best thing is low pressure in the Atlantic hitting continental air over the UK

so every nudge west / sharpened trough etc could eventually support a better outcome-

Instead of coming on here & bleating just think what it could be working towards..

[comet]

Another very strong warming showing up on the 18z gfs (strongest yet I think). Someone better fix the GloSea 5 lol.

[nick sussex]

Just now, Jason M said:

The best thing about this evolution is that it makes sense from where we are now. By day 9 its so good that it takes low res the rest of the run to undo all the good work 

Yes if you look across all the outputs they have the same pattern. It’s not like the GFS has pulled out a completely different NH pattern.

Some luck is needed though , the early stages are quite crucial.

[karlos1983]

12 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Nice GFS 18 hrs run I would have liked to see the trough sink se a little quicker but it finally gets there.

Hands up who still wants a PM flow slush fest! 

This is only possible because the block hangs on. I’d rather take my chances and gamble slush for a bigger prize .

 

Harder the struggle, the more glorious the triumph ☺️

Edited January 9, 2018 by karlos1983