Model output discussion - into 2018

[SMU]

Just to add ( a big if )

If we get enough blocking ahead of that front it could slow down / stall over the UK....(126/132)

 

Edited January 9, 2018 by Steve Murr

[bobbydog]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

That really is a strong anticyclone to our NE on GFS18z- isn't it just our luck (or maybe not just luck) that the vortex sends a vicious piece into the N Atlantic at the same ruddy time..

to be fair, if this block does insist on clinging on for grim death, we want the atlantic to blast through and under it. it might then slip towards greenland opening up a whole new set of possibilities.

[Matthew Gill]

The jet dropping south and tilting se 

[Snowmadsam]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

GFS continues its nudge west

84 sees -4s over the UK developing in situ

However more important than that the sustained SE flow induces enough surface cold to have the front as snow as it hits Scotland...

get a bit more SE flow = snow further south...

12z V 18z

also track evolving with every run... edging to UKMO / JMA blend

29% @Steve Murr living dangerously, I'm monitoring the SSW now. That maybe the only constant thing this winter. That or all the rain....models are still flip flopping and I need a drink. It's only tuesday!!

[blizzard81]

4 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Umm - you've got me. "few days of dross before seeing anything at 10 days" or "a good chance of seeing interesting day 10 charts in the next few days." Call me Mr Picky - but that's the same phrase. Essentially in or around 22nd Jan.

Difference = original statement states we could have potentially seen a decent day 10 chart as early as today. Statement tonight states earliest we will see a decent day 10 chart is 2 to 3 days away. Call me picky but it is a little like the models delaying any decent potential. 

[bobbydog]

1 minute ago, bobbydog said:

to be fair, if this block does insist on clinging on for grim death, we want the atlantic to blast through and under it. it might then slip towards greenland opening up a whole new set of possibilities.

with a smidgeon more chance of that happening on this run-

[SMU]

& suddenly people are rooting for the Scandi high to rebuild yet 24 hours ago they wanted it to slide away.... 

[MattTarrant]

4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

& suddenly people are rooting for the Scandi high to rebuild yet 24 hours ago they wanted it to slide away.... 

Generally from those who are less learned in the topic though. 

Edited January 9, 2018 by MattTarrant

[Had Worse]

4 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

with a smidgeon more chance of that happening on this run-

Just looking at T+162 18z and there appears to be three areas of high pressure trying to hold hands. (Sorry cant post chart) Thats the green land, the artic and scandi.

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, ShortWaveHell said:

But last night he said ‘Some interesting charts will start to appear at T+240 in the next few days...’

‘next few days’ isn’t a specific date in any definition of the English language ! 

My point being tonight he is saying the next few days will show dross at 10 days. Anyway, I was just trying to get to know if things have been delayed but from Catacol's reply it seems they have not. 

[January Snowstorm]

Just now, Steve Murr said:

& suddenly people are rooting for the Scandi high to rebuild yet 24 hours ago they wanted it to slide away.... 

I think the general consensus now for last couple of days is that any height rises or more likely over Greenland.

I do understand that my location is a world away from Southeast UK and imby applies but in all honesty Steve until everything resets the Easterly is well and truly off the menu barring maybe 24 hours in southeast UK

[bobbydog]

Just now, Steve Murr said:

& suddenly people are rooting for the Scandi high to rebuild yet 24 hours ago they wanted it to slide away.... 

no, its not going to rebuild, we won't be getting an easterly out of it as you suggested over the last couple of days but if it insists on hanging on, it might send the jet under to give us a better chance down the line and sooner rather than later

[nick sussex]

Hopefully tonights GFS 18hrs run shows its worth giving the block a bit more time.

Not saying this is the correct solution but the models seems to be chopping and changing with how that trough works into the UK and if the cold pooling stays to the east and doesn't get dislodged then if the troughing can disrupt enough then some of that could work its way back west.

 

[feb1991blizzard]

If only the uppers were a degree lower (only a degree would do as this is a slack trough), look at the elongation and time it stays in situ - could have been looking at some large snowfall totals for all parts of the UK - evaporative cooling.

[shaky]

9 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

& suddenly people are rooting for the Scandi high to rebuild yet 24 hours ago they wanted it to slide away.... 

Hmm arpege france slightly further west at 60 hours steve?!!

[northwestsnow]

Although nothing spectacular 850s wise there must be other factors at play as the temps look really quite supressed- esp the further north you head- certainly night time below zero and days only 2/3/4 degrees above..

Thats next week BTW..

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

If only the uppers were a degree lower (only a degree would do as this is a slack trough), look at the elongation and time it stays in situ - could have been looking at some large snowfall totals for all parts of the UK - evaporative cooling.

Next tues night 18z

9am wed-

Look how cold Scotland is..

Edited January 9, 2018 by northwestsnow

[doctor32]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Next tues night 18z

9am wed-

Look how cold Scotland is..

Probably all the lying snow they will have?

 

[Matthew Gill]

Because the jet seems to be about 100-200 miles further south on this run and tacking a more se track nearly missing the uk all the way through as opposed to the 12z where it roared across us. Wouldn't this allow the colder air to sink south and have less chance to get mixed out, so wouldn't-4 uppers be enough for snow to most places??

[on the coast]

I would think if T210 onwards were to happen then we may well be into a big cold spell. Things looking very interesting long term.

 

[Rocheydub]

11 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

I think the general consensus now for last couple of days is that any height rises or more likely over Greenland.

I do understand that my location is a world away from Southeast UK and imby applies but in all honesty Steve until everything resets the Easterly is well and truly off the menu barring maybe 24 hours in southeast UK

Probably one of the few times you'll get a Cork man and a Dubliner to agree on a subject! 

Jet digging a bit further south early on in this run.

[Purga]

A fascinating FI chart from GFS 18z if ever I saw one!

Anyone worried about lack of cold in the NH in the current winter see below

Just need a nice easterly flow and by jingo we're nearly there

 

 

Edited January 9, 2018 by Purga

[andymusic]

this mid-winter weather modelling is moving at a snails pace - I suppose we are normally used to the Atlantic shooting through with nasty lows and high winds, but this is becoming painful to watch lol

[Jason M]

Whilst the initial easterly is as dead as a dodo (was it ever even alive?), the GFS as shown here does signpost a possible route forward that may be of more interest. 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=222&mode=0

Even from this point there are no guarantees but I'd take that as a starting point.

[bluearmy]

Never verify but that's a boom set up by day 10.5