Model output discussion - into 2018

[northwestsnow]

UKMO 168 taking a LOT of energy SE into Espana

[Frosty.]

I actually think the Ecm 12z looks decent next week, rather cold and unsettled with a risk of snow, at least on hills and some frosty / icy nights..a lot more interesting than this week anyway!!

[SMU]

34 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

if you can turn that jet around as quickly as you charged your battery, we still have a chance!

Lol- speed charge-

UKMO 168 similar to JMA 168-

[blizzard81]

It's high time the JMA had it's 15 minutes of fame and out gunned the other models for once in it's miserable life. 

[SMU]

34 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

if you can turn that jet around as quickly as you charged your battery, we still have a chance!

Lol- speed charge-

UKMO 168 similar to JMA 168-

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Steve Murr said:

Lol- speed charge-

UKMO 168 similar to JMA 168-

was just going to ask if your still sniffing round mate

Like i said, a hell of a lot of energy going SE..

[blizzard81]

4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Lol- speed charge-

UKMO 168 similar to JMA 168-

Eh? The JMA has the centre of the low over north west France. The ukmo has it between northern Ireland and Iceland at the same time frame.

[Duane S.]

12 minutes ago, Bobby93 said:

The longer the block holds on the better imo, once the Atlantic breaks through we'll be starting all over again.

 

If this block could push further north and west slowly over the next few days output, you just never know what may happen.

 

We shouldn't wish a block in such a position away so quickly, if by the weekend it's still modelled to be pushed away then fair enough. But if over the next few days it could just sneak a little further towards us anything is possible.

Absolutely right. All this wishing away the block really isn't the way forward and what's more, I don't think the block is going anywhere fast!

I get the hatred for no mans land scenario, I'll take my chances with potentially having to put up with that for a while though.

Truth is, we don't need much more than a relatively small upstream tweak (as in stronger upstream forcing and more amplification) and we are right back in the game. If / when the models pick up this signal, the charts and ens will change overnight (or during the day).

The JMA is interesting and highlights a scenario I alluded to yesterday. One that frankly I am surprised hasn't been toyed with more by the models. Where the initial Atlantic enrgry clears through and underneath much quicker...

Be nice for the outsider to score a victory and highlights why a few are, quite rightly IMO, still not giving up on the quicker easterly scenario. However, It shouldn't be classed as a cannon fodder model.

 

[Frosty.]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

 

Like i said, a hell of a lot of energy going SE..

From a coldies point of view, better the energy going SE than NE..could be a lot worse!!

[shaky]

7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Lol- speed charge-

UKMO 168 similar to JMA 168-

Steve its weird you would av thought the ecm would follow the ukmo at the very least with the way the 72 hour chart looked!!i still dont think the block is getting blown away that easily!!i think it will be further west tomorrow at 72 at 96 hours!!

 

[Panayiotis]

JMA showing the two pressure attacks on Greenland beautifully:

[nick sussex]

Interesting spreads on the ECM ensembles .  For the timeframes involved T120hrs and T144hrs that’s unusually large both to the south and north of the UK and that continues well into the run.

[northwestsnow]

EC mean looks better to my eyes- out to 192

[ukpaul]

Look at where the JMA ends up though, that cut off low has no backup, no incoming undercuts, no substantial cold pool to the east, Azores high shouldering its way in. it leads to something as poor as ECM, except drier and warmer.

An elongated trough right down through Europe, also helping to suppress the Azores high, heights shunted north and west to Greenland meeting up with the remnants of the Alaskan ridge  and then you’re talking. In the meantime PM air may bring snow showers even to low levels and down the line, northerlies or easterlies may happen with an actual decent embedded cold pool.

 

Edited January 9, 2018 by ukpaul

[SLEETY]

If jma is correct,where are the cold uppers.minus 4 is pathetic in an Easterly.The North Westerly predicted next week is a lot colder.

[karlos1983]

How’s that for a 240 Mean.

someome let me know when you find the PV ?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

26 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Lol- speed charge-

UKMO 168 similar to JMA 168-

And JMA is a rated model by the MO, I remember Fergie saying so

 

BFTP

[northwestsnow]

EC mean is quite a bit colder than the op- i think it will be a mild outlier. mid term onwards-

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

1 hour ago, snowice said:

ECM gfs UKmo say no!

Do you believe the output will change in the 120 range?

UKMO doesn’t say no?

 

BFTP

[January Snowstorm]

I notice the JMA is the new GEM lol.

Funny how the minor models get an airing when they show colder options☺

For me the main models agree in it turning quite cold next week with hill snow very much in the forecast. A kind of as you were look about it as we did well from this before Christmas. Doubts over how cold though and the 850s look marginal at times. Still the trends are certainly improving

[bluearmy]

19 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Interesting spreads on the ECM ensembles .  For the timeframes involved T120hrs and T144hrs that’s unusually large both to the south and north of the UK and that continues well into the run.

Ecm has been consistent in having a low spread on the lw trough through n Scotland and extending se into Europe - in line with the ens mean 

[nick sussex]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Ecm has been consistent in having a low spread on the lw trough through n Scotland and extending se into Europe - in line with the ens mean 

The spread is the largest to the south and north at T144 hrs. So the mean might show agreement but there’s obviously solutions which vary quite widely.

[ArHu3]

38 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Interesting spreads on the ECM ensembles .  For the timeframes involved T120hrs and T144hrs that’s unusually large both to the south and north of the UK and that continues well into the run.

Do you have access to the ensemble? From the de Bilt plume I can see there finally is little uncertainty until Sunday 

Edited January 9, 2018 by ArHu3

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening everyone! The no mans land of weather continues for a few days yet, but the signal is fairly strong for a breakthrough from the Atlantic. However , some very cold air spilling towards the uk from Northwesterly winds carrying some very cold Artic air as we move into next week, plenty of potential for snow and not just on high ground. As always the devil will be in the detail but some very interesting weather to come by the time we hit next week....

[winterof79]