Model output discussion - into 2018

[markw2680]

3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

If anything, the block looks stronger to me, I think the atlantic is going to hit the buffers rather than blast through the uk early next week as the latest Gfs run shows. We could be looking at a battleground situation next week as the cold block and the atlantic lock horns so to speak..could be a titanic struggle.

Yeah that’s my thoughts too tbh, every day the block seems slightly further west

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Yeah that’s my thoughts too tbh, every day the block seems slightly further west

Surely that's a bad thing though? especially for the guys in Scotland/NW England, Ireland? could just keep us in no mans land with bucket loads of rain and southerly winds

[snowice]

1 hour ago, Daniel* said:

GFS is going to have a big upgrade planned for sometime in 2019. It’s very much needed, would be ironic if GFS become the model of choice.

 

16 days 6 extra days of getting it wrong

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

Carinthian should be happy with this http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-42623293 as would anyone of us, two meters of snow is 2 days is just shy of 7 feet! 

 

 

[Starsail]

What should we be cheering for? PM air from the North West moving South East or the High pressure to the East progressing west bringing colder uppers from the continent? 

I suspect that the answer to this question is dependent on geographical location. North Western areas will cheer the former, South Eastern areas the latter. Would this be a reasonable assumption or is this too simplistic?

Part of me would like to see SM and others be right because it would prove to be a great call when all seemed lost for the block. I suspect however that living in Scotland, to cheer that horse would be akin to shooting myself in the foot.  Can one scenario support the other so that we get the best of both worlds and everybody is happy?

[markw2680]

3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Surely that's a bad thing though? especially for the guys in Scotland/NW England, Ireland? could just keep us in no mans land with bucket loads of rain and southerly winds

Yeah I would quite happily have NW winds here, seems to deliver quite well but I just can’t help but think it’s not going to happen 

[bluearmy]

7 minutes ago, snowice said:

16 days 6 extra days of getting it wrong

well it currently runs to 16 days anyway but past day 10 its toss a coin time even moreso than before. at least having 16 days as high res will mean it should be able to offer a more balanced view of energy distribution days 11-16 if its in the same ball park as ecm at day 10.

[SMU]

ECM 72 -

 

light continental flow with uppers over the core of England already down to -4/-5.

Edited January 9, 2018 by Steve Murr

[jvenge]

Just now, Starsail said:

What should we be cheering for? PM air from the North West moving South East or the High pressure to the East progressing west bringing colder uppers from the continent? 

I suspect that the answer to this question is dependent on geographical location. North Western areas will cheer the former, South Eastern areas the latter. Would this be a reasonable assumption or is this too simplistic?

Part of me would like to see SM and others be right because it would prove to be a great call when all seemed lost for the block. I suspect however that living in Scotland, to cheer that horse would be akin to shooting myself in the foot.  Can one scenario support the other so that we get the best of both worlds and everybody is happy?

Check the ECM Control and EPS Mean from this morning. From T192 or so.

Although it would be a little self defeating to want the block to stay around too long (no mans land, and this is peak time, dont have days to waste). It does allow deeper cold to build in the east and you can see how this is beneficial in those runs I mentioned. In the mean time, more unusual colder uppers from the Atlantic side. Even as someone in Eastern Europe, from a modeling point of view, I actually find some of the atlantic output more interesting. 

Of course, at the range it is all speculation, bit in that scenario both camps would benefit.

[Mike Poole]

22 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

I know it’s amazing isn’t it? Come next year we could be praising GFS rather than usually slagging it off. 

 

I'm not so sure.  Resolution isn't the whole picture.  The calculation of the starting position (T0 conditions for the run) is also important, and my understanding is that ECM has a much more sophisticated method for doing this.  So increased resolution for the GFS could just result in it calculating the wrong evolution more precisely!

[shaky]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM 72 -

 

light continental flow with uppers over the core of England already down to -4/-5.

Was just gona post steve!!looks slightly better than ukmo aswell!!

[SLEETY]

Sorry no big EASTERLY incoming.ECM says no at 120 It  CANNOT !be constantly wrong at that time frame.Time to look NW with below normal 850 temps for snow 

Edited January 9, 2018 by SLEETY

[ukpaul]

Poor ECM 120, block not being aqueezed up north and west as with UKMO (which both scenarios need, either undercut or well aligned trough). Just standing there like a stubborn two year old! Maybe we could get those Greenland heights at 144h. Alaskan ridge doing its job, though, so maybe.

EDIT: well it gets there but weaker than UKMO!

Edited January 9, 2018 by ukpaul

[Ali1977]

Close but no cigar ref a decent Easterly , slight continental flow from the SE for a few days but that’s it, I really can’t see it sticking in the right place for us.

 I just want some PM flow now as this current weather is a little dull and boring!! 

[bluearmy]

the models are likely right (just delayed a day or two as is usual with a block). the chunk of vortex cleared se out of canada is too strong for our Scandinavian friend. embedded  cold may have assisted us further but it doesn't exist so we look to see the next amplification and what it may bring. the legacy of the scandi blocking will assist in that regard.

[mulzy]

The Easterly is not gong to happen and though the outlook is not likely to be mild, there will be little wintry weather in the offing as exemplified by tonight's ECM (a largely westerly flow once the Atlantic breaks through).

In short, the underwhelming output continues.  Once again, we are looking at more medium term signals such as the Stratosphere to save this winter.

Edited January 9, 2018 by mulzy

[ACCOUNT DELETED]

That's a very long 'high'!

[SMU]

JMA is the big ( ish ) model to show the Atlantic not getting through before it’s rebuttled away south

 

[frosty ground]

5 minutes ago, mulzy said:

The Easterly is not gong to happen and though the outlook is not likely to be mild, there will be little wintry weather in the offing as exemplified by tonight's ECM (a largely westerly flow once the Atlantic breaks through).

In short, the underwhelming output continues.  Once again, we are looking at more medium term signals such as the Stratosphere to save this winter.

Best ignore all other ouput for that..... the ECM is npt as cold but i think we should wait till we see its ensembles

[swfc]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

JMA is the big ( ish ) model to show the Atlantic not getting through before it’s rebuttled away south

 

With all your exp steve and looking to the north west on the other models do you see that second chart coming off???

[ICE COLD]

3 minutes ago, mulzy said:

The Easterly is not gong to happen and though the outlook is not likely to be mild, there will be little wintry weather in the offing as exemplified by tonight's ECM (a largely westerly flow once the Atlantic breaks through).

In short, the underwhelming output continues.  Once again, we are looking at more medium term signals such as the Stratosphere to save this winter.

Yep terrible run from the ECM . The nw / Westy winds ant gonna cut it . The only winners will be high ground . Cold rain everywhere else . Yuck ? 

[andymusic]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

JMA is the big ( ish ) model to show the Atlantic not getting through before it’s rebuttled away south

 

have to admire you Steve - your like a dog with a bone mate - you'll force the easterly through yet against all model output it is a shame at the mo while the UK sits in this no mans land - The Sahara Desert gets snow - Switzerland can't cope with the 7 feet it's had just dumped on it and on some of the southern Spanish beaches around Malaga they've had snow on the beach itself - amazing - oh well our time will come again shortly I'm sure

[snowice]

4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

JMA is the big ( ish ) model to show the Atlantic not getting through before it’s rebuttled away south

 

ECM gfs UKmo say no!

Do you believe the output will change in the 120 range?

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

JMA is the big ( ish ) model to show the Atlantic not getting through before it’s rebuttled away south

 

That looks a stonker but its out on its own I terms of that very favourable orientation of the trough, yes some of the other big ones have the Atlantic held further back for longer but they don't have that lovely sharp base of the trough - its more rounded.

[markw2680]

It’s just like most winters have all the good FI charts that never actually make it and this winter is so different to the normal it will be anything that gets rid of the block will backtrack and keep it there stronger and stronger as the days get closer, pretty sure the northwesterly isn’t going to happen any time soon