Model output discussion - into 2018

[TEITS]

Just been comparing some charts.

Look at the 0Z GFS a couple of days ago.

Compare with todays ECM for the same period.

What myself and Steve M have been saying has been proven correct with regards to the progressive modelling of the Atlantic against the high over Scandi. Not saying a convective E,ly is on the way but maybe still time for further shifts W.

[Snowy L]

1 hour ago, Longtimelurker said:

There is no Continental air over England, its 200 miles East in the North sea. So I don't see how an Easterly is guaranteed when there is more confidence for the Westerly and you state confidence is low for this. Out to T300 and its a Westerly ,not once has an Easterly shown up to this point. Where is the guaranteed coming from?

Boundary looks like the Irish sea to me.

[SMU]

Just now, Snowy L said:

Boundary looks like the Irish sea to me.

A man that knows.

[jethro]

12 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

72 hours Aperge

Theta E charts continental air & look at the wind barbs over England.

Not sure how hard it is to understand.

Can't say that I've been too impressed with the easterly weather thus far, all it means for around here is cold, damp, gloomy half lit days. Is there any likelihood of seeing a clearer, dryer element to it or is this as good as it's likely to get?

[Frosty.]

17 minutes ago, jethro said:

Can't say that I've been too impressed with the easterly weather thus far, all it means for around here is cold, damp, gloomy half lit days. Is there any likelihood of seeing a clearer, dryer element to it or is this as good as it's likely to get?

I think winds are supposed to go more southerly tomorrow, should be milder in the south especially at 8/10c with cloud breaking to allow sunny intervals but then fog appears to become the main problem further south after midweek as winds fall light and where mist / fog /  low cloud persists it will be cold further s / e..lasting into the weekend 

Edited January 9, 2018 by Frosty.

[shaky]

22 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

A man that knows.

Oh man i hope evrything shifts further west steve??!!there is defo an easterly element to the wind from 72 hour to 120 hours on both ukmo and ecm!!has there everr been a time where a cold pool has suddenly.appeared on the continent 3 days before an easterly was forecasted!!at the moment theres no real cold to tap into!!

Edited January 9, 2018 by shaky

[SMU]

17 minutes ago, jethro said:

Can't say that I've been too impressed with the easterly weather thus far, all it means for around here is cold, damp, gloomy half lit days. Is there any likelihood of seeing a clearer, dryer element to it or is this as good as it's likely to get?

It’s a more modified flow from the SE flow sourced from the far south of Europe which is why There’s no bite-

[northwestsnow]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Showery conditions following on from the west with showers turning wintry in places.

sorry Feb you were correct, Gavin D is posting yesterdays update ...

and its a nice little upgrade too- i wouldnt be suprised if places with altitude got a right dumping!!

Edited January 9, 2018 by northwestsnow

[jethro]

16 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I think winds are supposed to go more southerly tomorrow, should be milder in the south especially at 8/10c with cloud breaking to allow sunny intervals but then fog appears to become the main problem further south after midweek as winds fall light and where mist / fog /  low cloud persists it will be cold further s / e..lasting into the weekend 

So not a lot to look forward to then, more Mendip murk. If only it would freeze and the sun come out, then we'd have a spectacular hoare frost. One can but dream.

[jethro]

9 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

It’s a more modified flow from the SE flow sourced from the far south of Europe which is why There’s no bite-

Don't know about bite, more like a slavering, soggy lick from an old mutt with stinky breath.

[SMU]

45 minutes ago, jethro said:

I swear to God I'm going to personally dismantle the M4. What is it about the damn thing, is it heated, radioactive?

There is a reason why the model always aligns to the M4 & that’s to do with gridpoints on that map - there’s probably a line of gridpoints plotted along that motorway from London to Bristol on the GFS, with another line about 15 miles south & north with the next line being the south coast & above being Oxford across to wales - because there’s often a south westerly flow ahead of cold westerlies the model alligns milder air along the southerly gridpoints & the cut off line generally places around the M4- hence it’s always kicking about on the GFS...

[jethro]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

There is a reason why the model always aligns to the M4 & that’s to do with gridpoints on that map - there’s probably a line of gridpoints plotted along that motorway from London to Bristol on the GFS, with another line about 15 miles south & north with the next line being the south coast & above being Oxford across to wales - because there’s often a south westerly flow ahead of cold westerlies the model alligns milder air along the southerly gridpoints & the cut off line generally places around the M4- hence it’s always kicking about on the GFS...

But more often than not, it actually translates into reality, the damn thing really is a cut off point for marginal events. I can only guess the Severn estuary is to blame. China stops taking our plastic waste and we have to now puzzle over what to do with it, build a great big barrier at the mouth of the Severn, back fill it with the waste, should fairly soon remove the problem.

[Timmytour]

1024mb pressure over London for Friday. Has been edging west. Will the 12z continue the trend?

I think small changes that have been taken place in the Arctic due north of Norway will help spin that cold over Siberia in our direction. Will the 12z bear this out?

0z                                                             6z

Probably not!   But a man can hope!!

[Frosty.]

9 minutes ago, jethro said:

So not a lot to look forward to then, more Mendip murk.

Indeed, but next week should bring some cleaner, clearer polar air to clear the mendip murk if the models are right.

[jethro]

Just now, Frosty. said:

Indeed, but next week should bring some cleaner, clearer polar air to clear the mendip murk if the models are right.

Hallelujah!

[Scandinavian High.]

56 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

72 hours Aperge

Theta E charts continental air & look at the wind barbs over England.

Not sure how hard it is to understand.

Great post Steve continental flow feeling quite cold there.

[Seasonality]

7 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

1024mb pressure over London for Friday. Has been edging west. Will the 12z continue the trend?

I think small changes that have been taken place in the Arctic due north of Norway will help spin that cold over Siberia in our direction. Will the 12z bear this out?

0z                                                             6z

Probably not!   But a man can hope!!

Well the colder air is edging West to be fair. I doubt very, very much it would land a direct blow, but by cooling the continent it will give added bite to any drift from the east. I think you're onto something!

[ArHu3]

15 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

There is a reason why the model always aligns to the M4 & that’s to do with gridpoints on that map - there’s probably a line of gridpoints plotted along that motorway from London to Bristol on the GFS, with another line about 15 miles south & north with the next line being the south coast & above being Oxford across to wales - because there’s often a south westerly flow ahead of cold westerlies the model alligns milder air along the southerly gridpoints & the cut off line generally places around the M4- hence it’s always kicking about on the GFS...

Same thing with the Netherlands, cold always manages to stop at the German and Belgian border 

[ACCOUNT DELETED]

1 hour ago, nicknacknoo said:

 fully agree with this. Winter on the South Coast is Jan, Feb, march. In December warm channel waters are too moderating. Good news, we're only 1 week into winter.

Similarly, my nan used to say that February & March were our snowy months here on the south coast of Wales as that's when the Bristol Channel sea temperatures are at their coldest and in February especially the strength of the sun is still fairly weak. 

[SLEETY]

58 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Just been comparing some charts.

Look at the 0Z GFS a couple of days ago.

Compare with todays ECM for the same period.

What myself and Steve M have been saying has been proven correct with regards to the progressive modelling of the Atlantic against the high over Scandi. Not saying a convective E,ly is on the way but maybe still time for further shifts W.

You mean  the timing of when the Atlantic pushes through has been pushed back by the models underestimating the strength of the block..

however I don’t think the block is going to win out?,if it did then the meto would lose all credibility in their medium range forecasts.

[Seasonality]

1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

You mean  the timing of when the Atlantic pushes through has been pushed back by the models underestimating the strength of the block..

however I don’t think the block is going to win out?,if it did then the meto would lose all credibility in their medium range forecasts.

I wouldn't write off the block if I were you, and the Meto won't lose any credibility to be honest. Even in a medium range forecast they can't predict the outcome with certainty, it would just be a case of the less favoured outcome at the time of forecast verifying at t+0. It happens even to the best, the weather is after all a system that exhibits inherently chaotic behaviour.

[Daniel*]

Even Camborne sees snow on perb 11 theres a few incidences of snow for snow starved region of SW England a snow event around the 15th I feel is highly plausible. Many GEFS members are interested.

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, jethro said:

Can't say that I've been too impressed with the easterly weather thus far, all it means for around here is cold, damp, gloomy half lit days. Is there any likelihood of seeing a clearer, dryer element to it or is this as good as it's likely to get?

That really is the bog standard easterly in winter, I think. The colder it gets, often the clearer it gets. 

I just saw Chinos post from last night and he makes a point that I think has been missed in here - any sustained continental flow will be cold at surface level in January and early February, regards of uppers. Mini snow surprises are possible away from the coast until the Atlantic breaks through.

[bluearmy]

35 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

I wouldn't write off the block if I were you, and the Meto won't lose any credibility to be honest. Even in a medium range forecast they can't predict the outcome with certainty, it would just be a case of the less favoured outcome at the time of forecast verifying at t+0. It happens even to the best, the weather is after all a system that exhibits inherently chaotic behaviour.

The strength of the jet headed se with that significant chunk of vortex should be enough to overcome the block - but not to the point where it can just head east. So it curves se and this is where the questions arise. There are no hard and fast answers - which is why some posters use their experience of previous instances to make an informed assessment of what may happen. I’m not a big fan of ignoring what the models are showing (especially with cross model ens agreement ) so loathe to think that something quite different to what’s showing may verify. Whilst plenty of coldies think cold zonality off the Atlantic would be a good result for n Britain, I don’t subscribe to that and believe that getting the trough west and south of the uk is always the best result, moving forwards. 

[BlackburnChris]

My Location is showing Snow everyday for 9 days running from Monday ... Cant see that coming off ...