Model output discussion - into 2018

[Dean E]

4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I'm not fussy what form my snow takes...as long as it falls from the sky, is white and sticks I'm happy.

Here are the thicknesses

For a near W'ly flow, that is about as non-marginal as you can hope for...

That's some thickness values for a NW'ly. We haven't seen that in a while....

Edited January 8, 2018 by Dean E
Wrong terminology. I need a break.

[SMU]

2 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

Spot on, but not what you alluded to a couple of days ago Steve. I'd love you to admit it went a bit stodgy, you make me feel like I am a fool with my own personal predictions, until the close time frames come out and I'm proven more correct... Love that you can predict the the bias of the models though, that's a skill I'd love to have!

 

I did in a roundabout way on the previous page

[Rocheydub]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Can’t remember the date in the archives but there is 1 chart with a -10c into Ireland & Wales with a WSW flow ! 

1? :-) 

 

[Daniel*]

Just now, CreweCold said:

I'm not fussy what form my snow takes...as long as it falls from the sky, is white and sticks I'm happy.

Here are the thicknesses

For a near W'ly flow, that is about as non-marginal as you can hope for...

Those are very low thicknesses sub 516 dam air I can just work out over NW Wales and a fair chunk of Ireland that is very impressive and rare you do not see that often, from continent not that usual. Proper cold zonal.

[Rocheydub]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

I did in a roundabout way on the previous page

I didn't see that!! Apologies!

 

Looking N and W for now, maybe I can drive 25 miles to Wicklow for next week, I can build a snowman!!!

[Khalid Mahmood]

Early morning , late at night . Gripped by this forum. Love reading some huge insights that many on here offer. Keeps novices like me addicted :). Just a general question ?.  Has anyone ever seen the Atlantic so cold at this time of the year , it literally looks freezing and traditionally east was always the cold beast and the West mild with colder shots maybe...thoughts ?

 

Edited January 8, 2018 by Khalid Mahmood

[Glacier Point]

So we have a big Indian Ocean MJO event, and the dashboard suddenly starts to light up. That near -4SD gwo value would be a good proxy for the depth of the mjo's atmospheric impact.

Both future hemispheric amplification and the stratosphere showing signs of strong wave 2 activity are direct consequences.

[Mapantz]

A few days ago, there were one or two ensemble members hinting at those thicknesses, even showing the 510 DAM across parts of the country - all spreading in from the West. The origin of the air is obviously favourable for those kind of figures. Quite interesting I would say?!

[Snowmadsam]

More evidence as to why it's worth looking NW! This is the constant trend from the GFS. I'm expecting a minor warming in the stratosphere. I haven't got time to show charts at the moment. But the charts are showing in the date ranges as per predictions from teleconnections professionals on here. 

 

 

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 18z looks quite wintry from next week, quite exciting with some cold / very cold zonality at times along with some snow, potentially a lot of snow for favoured areas and some very frosty / icy nights too..more interesting than this week!!❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄

[SMU]

The mid term (as well as the 72-96) is still developing & that cut off low looks a distinct possibility 

look for it to continue to be modelled further south in forthcoming runs as well as the Atlantic being further west-

S

[shaky]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

The mid term (as well as the 72-96) is still developing & that cut off low looks a distinct possibility 

look for it to continue to be modelled further south in forthcoming runs as well as the Atlantic being further west-

S

Was gona say steve that low is a lot shallower on the gfs 18z and control at 120 hours!!would not be surprised to see it pushes further west and south tomorrow!!could be a surprise or two!!

[khodds]

That cut off low was exactly what @Catacol has been alluding too recently. Great reading from the pros lately - thanks for all your input ??

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, shaky said:

Was gona say steve that low is a lot shallower on the gfs 18z and control at 120 hours!!would not be surprised to see it pushes further west and south tomorrow!!could be a surprise or two!!

Am I stuck in some kind of time warp?

This very thing has been said day after day for the past 4 days. Time to look past the 'easterly' now and focus on the direction of travel day 7 +

[SMU]

Just now, CreweCold said:

Am I stuck in some kind of time warp?

This very thing has been said day after day for the past 4 days. Time to look past the 'easterly' now and focus on the direction of travel day 7 +

No time warp - the problem is your cold zonality keeps getting pushed back from said Easterly source...

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

6 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Am I stuck in some kind of time warp?

This very thing has been said day after day for the past 4 days. Time to look past the 'easterly' now and focus on the direction of travel day 7 +

The cold zonal 'breakthrough' keeps getting pushed back too.  More drama to come yet in this epic East West battle I reckon!

I actually like the look of tonight's GFS run and would like to experience it but I am far from convinced it will pan out like that.....

Edited January 8, 2018 by Kentish Snowman

[Cheshire Freeze]

4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

No time warp - the problem is your cold zonality keeps getting pushed back from said Easterly source...

Steve-

Modelling perhaps a 'tad' progressive bringing in the PM flow and is adjusting accordingly. All we are seeing is the UK spending a little longer in no-mans land. Deep cold uppers from the E are not getting any closer to us, regardless of whether the block-Atlantic skirmish drags on another day or two.

The end game in the mid term looks set.

P.S the Atlantic is in at day 6

Edited January 8, 2018 by CreweCold

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Am I stuck in some kind of time warp?

This very thing has been said day after day for the past 4 days. Time to look past the 'easterly' now and focus on the direction of travel day 7 +

What I would say though is going forward for the final third of winter, I am the most confident (if you can call it that) I have been in last 4 years that a potent Easterly can be achieved at some point, we keep this slider / PM / Jet south scenario recurring and we keep seeing scadi heights  either occurring or being modelled in FI with stonking pacific ridges all winter, all we need to do is put it all together in one go, the thing with me though is I wont dwell once the first chance has gone, I look for the next, I would like to see more slicing of the strat vortex soon, the wave 2 pattern is definitely evident, just need the knife to go through the butter and boom February looms.

[alexisj9]

Just now, CreweCold said:

Am I stuck in some kind of time warp?

This very thing has been said day after day for the past 4 days. Time to look past the 'easterly' now and focus on the direction of travel day 7 +

Low has only just stared moving SE in models. If it stays modelled that way could change everything after it. Like I've been saying the models are still changing in the short term. 

 

[Alexis]

4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Steve-

Modelling perhaps a 'tad' progressive bringing in the PM flow and is adjusting accordingly. All we are seeing is the UK spending a little longer in no-mans land. Deep cold uppers from the E are not getting any closer to us, regardless of whether the block-Atlantic skirmish drags on another day or two.

The end game in the mid term looks set.

I agree. I think people are still hanging on every run hoping that the drawn out process will cause the Atlantic lows to track further south, creating a 'backdoor' easterly.

[Chris101]

Surely the retrogression of the high NW over the days ahead has to be watched though, i'm in no way saying it will be enough but it'll be a good watch.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, Alexis said:

I agree. I think people are still hanging on every run hoping that the drawn out process will cause the Atlantic lows to track further south, creating a 'backdoor' easterly.

I can only assume that is the case.

I'd put my wages on it not happening how they are all desperately wishing. It's reminiscent of a bloke hanging on to fond memories of flirting with a hot girl in a club, praying she suddenly texts 4 weeks after they met, unable to move on because of the fixation. 

[Northernlights]

41 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Can’t remember the date in the archives but there is 1 chart with a -10c into Ireland & Wales with a WSW flow ! 

Off topic I know but there was an occasion in the late 1960s in  early December one Saturday when we received six inches of snow right to sea level on a west wind. Never seen such a black stormy sky in winter. until  late November 2010 on a north east wind.

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I can only assume that is the case.

I'd put my wages on it not happening how they are all desperately wishing. It's reminiscent of a bloke hanging on to fond memories of flirting with a hot girl in a club, praying she suddenly texts 4 weeks after they met, unable to move on because of the fixation. 

That is a little bit disrespectful and arrogant isn't it?

You are passing off 144 charts as a given?  I am not suggesting for a minute that we will end up with deep cold from the East but the situation is so fluid that to assume a Polar Westerly as a near certainty is brave / foolish in my eyes.

T96 is just about the limit of the reliable time frame at the moment.  My view is that any 'Atlantic' that makes it East of the meridian will be very shortlived and transient and I just don't buy the GFS 18z which pushes it right through to Central Europe!  Just my tuppence which I appreciate is not worth much!

[Cheshire Freeze]

6 minutes ago, Kentish Snowman said:

That is a little bit disrespectful and arrogant isn't it?

Not really, no. Unless the professionals are also being arrogant when they say the block will be overrun?

All in my opinion of course.

I generally have little time for hopecasting.

Edited January 8, 2018 by CreweCold