Model output discussion - into 2018

[Snowman.]

1 minute ago, doctor32 said:

Funny how we see things different, i see the gfs constantly delaying the atlantic breakthrough due to the block being more stubborn. So very much playing a part in this setup. 

If gfs was correct some days ago we would be in the westerly flow now with low pressure over us.

 

 

I believe you mean the ECM/UKMO sir.

[pureasthedriven]

3 hours ago, mulzy said:

Good for you but you will find for many, the wait for lying snow is closing in on 5 years, yes that is FIVE!!!

Yep. March 2013. Five. 

[booferking]

5 minutes ago, doctor32 said:

Funny how we see things different, i see the gfs constantly delaying the atlantic breakthrough due to the block being more stubborn. So very much playing a part in this setup. 

If gfs was correct some days ago we would be in the westerly flow now with low pressure over us.

 

 

Ireland will be in southerly winds tomorrow with a band of rain pushing in from the Atlantic then on towards western parts of Scotland & England.

This has been modelled for quite sometime from gfs.

Edited January 8, 2018 by booferking

[doctor32]

2 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

I believe you mean the ECM/UKMO sir.

Yes, thats what i meant... Long day 

[booferking]

More cold zonal on the offering 18z widespread snow for many.

[OfficialKevWX]

It’s a little quiet in here no comments about the GFS lol 

[blizzard81]

55 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Not got time to check back through the thread tonight - but this is a glaring GWO chart if noone else has noted it:

For neartime amplification pretty dire (hence atlantic breakthrough coming up) - but for the degree of "stretch" in the atmospheric elastic band this is setting us up for a decent ping-back. Think of atmospheric momentum budgets like a band - constantly stretching out of alignment but then coming back to neutral as the band pulls things together. Here we have an extreme GWO 1 orbit in low AAM tendency... and the elastic band is going to want to bring things back to neutral pronto. End result - bigger chance of a decent spike when it comes. 

As noted yesterday in posted charts - MJO stalled in phase 2 but CPC predict (again) a move to phase 3 next week. Have to think it will happen this time... in conjunction with rising frictional torques. 

So not a lot of change from yesterday - but that GWO chart was worth looking at. Timing of amplification and return of scandy high on course. Some interesting charts will start to appear at T+240 in the next few days...

First one coming up on the gfs 18z maybe

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, OfficialKevWX said:

It’s a little quiet in here no comments about the GFS lol 

Looks like model fatigue has set in. Catacol maybe onto something here. 

[Dean E]

GFS continuing to toy the idea with extensive Northerly blocking and a possible Greenland High? 

[fromey]

3 minutes ago, Dean E said:

GFS continuing to toy the idea with extensive Northerly blocking and a possible Greenland High? 

Is that the PV over our side??

[Frosty.]

Cold zonality spreading across the uk next week on the Gfs 18z with some nice charts to look at!❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄

[SMU]

Sub 2c weekend for England possible..

Looking at the Theta E charts on the Aperge we managed 3.8c here today with ThE temps around 26 -

so whilst it was cold it wasn’t ‘that’ cold

The continent by 114 is much colder with the UK getting ThE temps of about 14- ( continental snowline is temp of 10)

so watch out for that cold air moving NW out of the continent..

S

[Cheshire Freeze]

That is some very cold zonality on offer from the GFS...

I make that -8 at the 850 level from a WNW'ly flow

Could be looking at a potentially colder than average N Atlantic come spring/summer.

Edited January 8, 2018 by CreweCold

[Daniel*]

Just now, Dean E said:

GFS continuing to toy the idea with extensive Northerly blocking and a possible Greenland High? 

There’s no extensive northerly blocking on that and that’s not a Greenland high that’s just a surface high fairly frequent occurrence, it’s caused by the very cold dense air, on the high up, thick ice shelf which encrusts much of Greenland. You need to see yellows and more reds/oranges like 2010 for a truly formidable Greenland high. 

[Weathizard]

Just now, CreweCold said:

That is some very cold zonality on offer from the GFS...

I make that -8 at the 850 level from a WNW'ly flow

These almost always get modified to be much warmer as it gets into a reliable timeframe though, if the sypnotics get to a reliable timeframe that is which I'm sceptical about.

[Cleeve Hill]

5 minutes ago, Dean E said:

GFS continuing to toy the idea with extensive Northerly blocking and a possible Greenland High? 

With a drop in zonal winds forecast and ridging into Greenland being discussed by Cohen & Ventrice this looks like the form horse to me. 

[Daniel*]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

That is some very cold zonality on offer from the GFS...

I make that -8 at the 850 level from a WNW'ly flow

Could be looking at a potentially colder than average N Atlantic come spring/summer.

That’s more decent than what you would normally expect especially -6C air getting as far east as Poland I don’t think I’ve seen that from a maritime source before. That would be very snowy for high ground of NW, no doubt there would be wintriness to low levels too but more lovely slush. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, Daniel* said:

That’s more decent than what you would normally expect especially -6C air getting as far east as Poland I don’t think I’ve seen that from a maritime source before. That would be very snowy for high ground of NW, no doubt there would be wintriness to low levels too but more lovely slush. 

Given the thicknesses, I'd suggest snow would be fairly widespread. Looks very wintry to me for a lot of people.

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, CreweCold said:

That is some very cold zonality on offer from the GFS...

I make that -8 at the 850 level from a WNW'ly flow

Yes, now if the -8c isotherm could make it quite widely (tall order I know) and hang around for a NW - WNW flow (convective) for 2 days then I would get very interested, -5c to -6c too marginal for even here - it just gets diluted by intermittent sleet getting mixed in even when it is a snow event, this would be the ideal time for such a setup - late enough so the SST's are cooled more ut early enough so that people further South don't have snow melt in between showers - PPN intensity almost guaranteed with that flow and guaranteed to push along way East as well.

[Dean E]

7 minutes ago, fromey said:

Is that the PV over our side??

Appears we will have a PV under stress in FI

Edited January 8, 2018 by Dean E

[Daniel*]

Just now, CreweCold said:

Given the thicknesses, I'd suggest snow would be fairly widespread. Looks very wintry to me for a lot of people.

It is for a lot of the country even for the south however one cannot expect powdery snow only at high elevations. 

[SMU]

Can’t remember the date in the archives but there is 1 chart with a -10c into Ireland & Wales with a WSW flow ! 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, Daniel* said:

It is for a lot of the country even for the south however one cannot expect powdery snow only at high elevations. 

I'm not fussy what form my snow takes...as long as it falls from the sky, is white and sticks I'm happy.

Here are the thicknesses

For a near W'ly flow, that is about as non-marginal as you can hope for...

[Rocheydub]

5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Sub 2c weekend for England possible..

Looking at the Theta E charts on the Aperge we managed 3.8c here today with ThE temps around 26 -

so whilst it was cold it wasn’t ‘that’ cold

The continent by 114 is much colder with the UK getting ThE temps of about 14- ( continental snowline is temp of 10)

so watch out for that cold air moving NW out of the continent..

S

Spot on, but not what you alluded to a couple of days ago Steve. I'd love you to admit it went a bit stodgy, you make me feel like I am a fool with my own personal predictions, until the close time frames come out and I'm proven more correct... Love that you can predict the the bias of the models though, that's a skill I'd love to have!

 

[cheshire snow]

4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Given the thicknesses, I'd suggest snow would be fairly widespread. Looks very wintry to me for a lot of people.

Something the GEFS has been hinting at for the last few days CC

C.S