Model output discussion - into 2018

[weirpig]

Just now, Snowmadsam said:

Speaking from experience in Western Wales I am very sure

I'd be very surprised to get snow off a north westerly  at uppers of less than -5 however if you say so 

[Nick F]

12z EC op a change from the 00z run in that it doesn't disrupt the Atlantic trough into a cut-off low and keeps it intact and thus lifts it NE, this likely because less amplification working downstream from N America and blocking too weak / too far east to disrupt the trough ... a step towards recent GFS ops which has had this trough intact idea. Again the EC maybe too amplified and has backtracked to GFS, but trough disruption early next week may still happen, given the timeframe.

Cold Pm airflow always looked a better bet to get cold and wintry potential back than an easterly anyway ... as the source is colder.

Edited January 8, 2018 by Nick F

[weirpig]

Just out of interest has anyone got the precipitation charts for the ecm please? 

[Mucka]

 

That is a strong Arctic high the ECM building on this run.

Unfortunately the trough doesn't push through/undercut enough this run and AH plays spoiler, but easy to see how more energy pushing SE through the mid term would yield very different mid month+ charts.

Regardless, even if we don't get the block to the East to retrogress at all, such a strong Arctic high, should it come off, could lead to better things later so plenty in the charts for cold fans, even if we are still not seeing a prolonged blocked cold spell modelled.

That is much better than recent winters.

 

[mulzy]

The ECM just sums up this winter - plenty of promise but no/little delivery.  Starts of with a block to the east then ends up with an Arctic high.  All nice synoptics but the bottom line is very little snow to many.

The wait continues...

Edited January 8, 2018 by mulzy

[northwestsnow]

EC snow charts show quite a snowy NW Britain

[chris55]

6 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Yep, more slush for central and northern areas - yipee!

I hate slush!!

(Dec 17) first slush

Second slush

just highlighting the facts.

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

12 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Comment on the models or just a moan?

Comment on a comment.  I rarely moan but if I do....it’s usually more robust and easterly than the current block    

 

BFTP

[Dean E]

Normally in these situations, gaining a trend over the model runs is the best way imo to get an idea of the overall pattern, but I can't remember the last time there's been so much change between runs. (I believe March 2013 was the last time, someone will probably quote a better example?)

A PM source is looking very likely now towards the end of this week, that's a trend models can agree on (GFS, ECM and UKMO going with this)

However, that Scandinavian block is really putting up a fight and I believe this will help deliver some more 'appealing' setups come next week.

Either way, we may have a choice of 2 cold sources come this time next week... the East and North West.

[mulzy]

1 minute ago, chris55 said:

I hate slush!!

(Dec 17) first slush

Second slush

just highlighting the facts.

 

Good for you but you will find for many, the wait for lying snow is closing in on 5 years, yes that is FIVE!!!

[ukpaul]

8 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Just out of interest has anyone got the precipitation charts for the ecm please? 

Not at my main computer so can’t post the images but, although a much better setup originally than the 0z, the flabbiness of the trough leaves just limited falls on the Welsh mountains, Cumbria and Scottish borders with the usual dumping in the Highlands, Pennines and Peak District looks negligible. If we can get a more organised diving trough and a jet further south then the possibilities increase markedly. An interesting setup overall though, looking forward.

Edited January 8, 2018 by ukpaul

[Nick F]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC snow charts show quite a snowy NW Britain

only really upland areas as far as I can see on the 12z EC, though obviously that may lower / change.

EC snow at t+162

Seems to be a winter of looking to the NW for cold and maybe we may have to look out for the sliders again if the Pm pattern sets in ...

[bluearmy]

9 minutes ago, Nick F said:

12z EC op a change from the 00z run in that it doesn't disrupt the Atlantic trough into a cut-off low and keeps it intact and thus lifts it NE, 

At day 5 it disrupts se which means that the front that got to the east of the meridian by day 6 on the 00z run has now evaporated in the Irish Sea at the same time on this run 

I would have thought that whatever is modelled to follow re split flow is questionable given this change ?? 

[nick sussex]

The output is one of those which you can’t hate from a cold perspective neither can you do a Julie Andrews and sing about it!

Probably okay for areas to the north with some elevation .

NW sale now on!

Reduced prices . A range of t-shirts available with the following on.

I survived the great slush blizzard of 2018.

Slush makes better snowballs.

Slush rules.

Tired of slush tired of life.

 

Anyway we need more trough disruption and more amplitude upstream, apart from that it’s okay! 

 

 

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Nick F said:

only really upland areas as far as I can see on the 12z EC, though obviously that may lower / change.

EC snow at t+162

Seems to be a winter of looking to the NW for cold and maybe we may have to look out for the sliders again if the Pm pattern sets in ...

It gets a little colder the following 36 hours so i would expect that to expand..

[weirpig]

4 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Good for you but you will find for many, the wait for lying snow is closing in on 5 years, yes that is FIVE!!!

Yep as I said  earlier strange island  we live on. 5 years for you. And five snow events this winter for me ( all of varying degrees). Fingers crossed for something more beneficial for the whole of the country 

[Nick F]

8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

At day 5 it disrupts se which means that the front that got to the east of the meridian by day 6 on the 00z run has now evaporated in the Irish Sea at the same time on this run 

I would have thought that whatever is modelled to follow re split flow is questionable given this change ?? 

True, some weak disruption, but I was referring more to early next where previous runs both EC and GFS had shown the main thrust SE of troughing from the TPV at the weekend disrupting into a cut-off low and then being the trigger for an easterly that some had been hoping for, if the low went far enough in across mainland Europe, but this seems off the table now, but still time for it to come back if the models are mis-handling or missing further trough disruption beyond day 5.

[doghouse]

With the modelled cold N Westerly and the easterly farce just about done-how about a good film recommendation for Monsignor Nick Sussex of Lourdes for his continued endeavour and good grace

Doctor Nogloves (How I learned to stop worrying and love the snow bomb)

[frosty ground]

21 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Good for you but you will find for many, the wait for lying snow is closing in on 5 years, yes that is FIVE!!!

Whats your point?

[ukpaul]

1 minute ago, doghouse said:

With the modelled cold N Westerly and the easterly farce just about done-how about a good film recommendation for Monsignor Nick Sussex of Lourdes for his continued endeavour and good grace

Doctor Nogloves (How I learned to stop worrying and love the snow bomb)

North by Northwest?

[SLEETY]

SE winds on the Ecm at 120  and nearly the same on UKMOthat’s different from yesterday.Maybe people should concentrate on the earlier timeframe still.

[Daniel*]

29 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC snow charts show quite a snowy NW Britain

I expect it would be shock horror usual suspects, did anyone ask for the precipitation charts?

goes out to day 5 only:

http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/#type=prec

[Pembroke Dangler]

This easterly come westerly come southerly come norwester saga is getting a bit tiresome and making me a bit dizzy. I just feel that the scandy block (like last year) is not being a friend and I think it’s time it either got some muscle and smash the Atlantic trough down under us or leave the scene and let the pattern reset. The overall picture still looks ripe for something down the line maybe in 2 weeks I think. Also think an SSW could be the way forward and February could be the beasts turn to pay us a long over due visit. Here’s hoping anyway. 

[stodge]

Evening all

That time of day again - yes, birthday watch and we're down to T+168:

Tonight's charts from the respective 12Z OPs:

ECM:

GEM:

GFS:

JMA:

NAVGEM:

Broad agreement on the generalities but disagreement on the specifics. The movement NW to SE of the trough looks settled but the core of LP remains to be resolved - it moves in to be just west of the British isles by next Monday before moving in and over us for early in the week. Rain or showers for all would be the forecast to this observer but perhaps not too windy.

[mulzy]

6 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Whats your point?

Despite the fact a few members have had snow, it has been a typical winter for many.  I.e. lying snow free.  Fully understand that lying snow is now the exception rather than the norm but still...

Mods feel free to move this rant...