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Model output discussion - into 2018


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, mulzy said:

GEM day 10 is not without interest (yes I know. its the GEM and I know it is day 10) but this kind of solution is very much in the envelope...

GEMOPEU12_240_1.png

Again, looks fab from a NH perspective with one massive problem, its purple and its way to the NW..

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Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Again, looks fab from a NH perspective with one massive problem, its purple and its way to the NW..

It's not a problem when it's that far away, as long as it steers clear from Greenland 

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

Well, how about that for a Atlantic surge from UKMO. Backs GFS to the Hilt at 144t. No continental flow or block by weekend on this latest output. Could be a bit too progressive.

C

UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

Edited by carinthian
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
37 minutes ago, Weather toad said:

Week 3 average, week 4 slightly above. No access to Strat charts unfortunately. I’ll PM you the link when I’m back from work. 

ECM monthly sounds like a repeat of last week - except shifted back yet another week! Keeps trying to go mild in the long term but failing. Opposite of last year!!

Onto the UKMO ... rather different from yesterday's 12Z up north - so not even the UKMO can keep its consistency at the moment:

UW120-21.GIF?08-17  UW144-21.GIF?07-12

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Posted
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

gfs-2-288.png?12

Very heavy rain with snow on the Northern Edge..... This pattern lends its self to this this type of setup.

I'd expect evaporative cooling to turn some of that to snow

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

gemnh-0-240.png?12GEM 240

ECH1-240.GIF?08-12ECM 240

gfsnh-0-240.png?12GFS 240

GFS makes more of Heights and ridging toward Iberia which shifts the  trough disruption further North. There's always one.

Edited by winterof79
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, winterof79 said:

gemnh-0-240.png?12GEM 240

ECH1-240.GIF?08-12ECM 240

gfsnh-0-240.png?12GFS 240

GFS makes more of Heights toward Iberia whch shifts trough disruption further North. There's always one.

GEM is much better than GFS thats for sure..

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Not the most exciting of GFS runs, I have to say...That said, the cold zonality might be cold enough to provide one or two pleasant surprises...The possible back-end topplers? Well, what day14 predictions ever materialise...?

h850t850eu.png

Edited by Ed Stone
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Hope it doesn't sound like im moaning, im not.

The PM flow looks OK on GFS ,  but i'm looking for retrogression in the Atlantic to bring a Greeny high and bring a deep freeze with blizzards and 6 feet icicles 

:crazy:

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Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Hope it doesn't sound like im moaning, im not.

The PM flow looks OK on GFS ,  but i'm looking for retrogression in the Atlantic to bring a Greeny high and bring a deep freeze with blizzards and 6 feet icicles 

:crazy:

You Moan.....Never:D

C.S

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
14 minutes ago, Snowbogey said:

Just out of hospital so missed a lot I have HCL so was rather hoping for an epic snow event as I don't know how many winters I have left lol but the models are all over the place I think 72hrs is about as far as we can reliably look forward ....at least I have 62/63 in the bag!:cold:

o man i'm so sorry to hear that- really hope you will be ok :)

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Posted
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.
21 minutes ago, Snowbogey said:

Just out of hospital so missed a lot I have HCL so was rather hoping for an epic snow event as I don't know how many winters I have left lol but the models are all over the place I think 72hrs is about as far as we can reliably look forward ....at least I have 62/63 in the bag!:cold:

I'm sure you will have plenty winters left mate, ecm snow fest we can hope ?☸️☸️☸️?

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Posted
  • Location: Nottingham
  • Location: Nottingham

Well it looks like the push from the west will overcome the block to the east but there is still room for more of a fight from the block . 

The colder zonal flow could deliver some exciting weather if it comes off as modelled . We definitely don't want to see the Azores High getting too close to the UK as that would spoil any potential fun weather

This unsettled cold type weather won't deliver epic ice days but heavy temporary falls of snow are definitely possible in favoured areas.

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

All the best snowbogey.:) So it seems that the hoped for easterly "barring the glancing blow over the weekend"has imo drifted away.if the weather moves in from a nw direction then with any altitude folk should do ok and maybe at lower levels further north.not what folk want but it could be worse.btw anyone else feel like were in the latter stages of winter model fatigue wise!!!!!:sorry:

 

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

If this .....IMG_3212.thumb.PNG.972453750f204984de5b432d628b9af4.PNG

goes under like thisIMG_3213.thumb.PNG.22476775145f3b82e3bfaa29088adfec.PNG

then we could well be locked into an ever evolving freezer type pattern.

however if this

IMG_3214.thumb.PNG.b02420060315ba713a64a817e53afff6.PNG

Goes under less convincingly like this....

IMG_3215.thumb.PNG.2d24811394dc1402441f6afac7dc3991.PNG

Then who knows where we will end up!!! But mild southwesterly looks unlikely.

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)

GFS is a super cold run for my neck of the woods :cold:

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