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Model output discussion - into 2018

Paul

By Paul
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Kentish Snowman in Yorks Experienced

Kentish Snowman in Yorks

Posted
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Summer Sunshine / Winter Snow
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)
Posted
8 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

icon-0-180.png?08-12
And this is how today's run ends

Looks like the Azores High is displaced further SW on today's run and stronger heights pushing West out of Northern Scandi.  Interesting.....

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Weathizard Accomplished

Weathizard

Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
Posted

It's so irritating how close this chart is, shame there's no embedded cold on the continent and the jet won't give us a break for once. 

IMG_8798.PNG

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shotski Seasoned

shotski

Posted
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
Posted
6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

What about week 3 and 4 please, didn't know it was available yet - do you have access to the Stratosphere charts?

Week 3 average, week 4 slightly above. No access to Strat charts unfortunately. I’ll PM you the link when I’m back from work. 

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mountain shadow Maestro

mountain shadow

Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
Posted
1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

UW144-21.GIF?08-17

Very Progressive from the Met...... Block still Lurking just further East.

Didn't expect that, very, very stormy chart. Copious snow for the mountains there.

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winterof79 Veteran

winterof79

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

 

UW144-21.GIF?08-17

Very Progressive from the Met...... Block still Lurking just further East.

935Mb :bomb:

GEM going same way as ECM 00Z

gem-0-234.png?12

 

 

 

 

Edited by winterof79
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ukpaul Aficionado

ukpaul

Posted
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Click on my name - sorry, it was too long to fit here......
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
Posted
1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

Didn't expect that, very, very stormy chart. Copious snow for the mountains there.

Northern Hemisphere view, sequenced after the 120h is even more interesting. Diving South East and very swiftly, at that. Look at that ridge right up the eastern seaboard there.

UN144-21_pwc5.GIF

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Kentish Snowman in Yorks Experienced

Kentish Snowman in Yorks

Posted
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Summer Sunshine / Winter Snow
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)
Posted
4 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

UW144-21.GIF?08-17

Very Progressive from the Met...... Block still Lurking just further East.

With pressure at 935 should we be taking that chart seriously?

I can't see that chart coming to fruition.

That low has nowhere to go except dive SE across Britain you would have thought?  Could be a tad breezy if it is correct though?!  :cold:

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
2 minutes ago, ukpaul said:

Northern Hemisphere view, sequenced after the 120h is even more interesting. Diving South East and very swiftly, at that. Look at that ridge right up the eastern seaboard there.

UN144-21_pwc5.GIF

Its flat as a pancake off the eastern seaboard..that ridge is getting flattened very quickly thereafter..

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Weather-history Maestro

Weather-history

Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
Posted
6 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

UW144-21.GIF?08-17

Very Progressive from the Met...... Block still Lurking just further East.

With pressure at 935 should we be taking that chart seriously?

GFS and ECM have been hinting at this. It is a piece of the polar vortex and contains very cold air. It is possible.

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ArHu3 Rising Star

ArHu3

Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

935Mb :bomb:

Now if only that bomb could drop on Libya, we'd be in business, gfs tentatively teasing us already @156h

Edited by ArHu3
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fromey Experienced

fromey

Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
Posted
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Its flat as a pancake off the eastern seaboard..that ridge is getting flattened very quickly thereafter..

I think it’s the ridge going up the west coast of the USA up towards Seattle

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winterof79 Veteran

winterof79

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
Posted (edited)

WOW trough disruption or what

gemnh-0-240.png?12GEM

ECH1-240.GIF?08-12ECM 00Z

Edited by winterof79
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ukpaul Aficionado

ukpaul

Posted
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Click on my name - sorry, it was too long to fit here......
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
Posted
5 minutes ago, fromey said:

I think it’s the ridge going up the west coast of the USA up towards Seattle

Exactly, and just see how it moves into the Arctic on an increasing number of runs (see GEM above).

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Dean E Community Regular

Dean E

Posted
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire
Posted (edited)

GFS 12z rolling out. Am very concerned about that Azores high, continued to be modelled very strongly now.

image.thumb.png.cec442de16d96ffd027267ea0b526de0.png

We need heights to drop over S. Europe, but I think we all know where that high ends up,

There is a brief window to allow a secondary Low to move towards the Med however...

or Will the high ridge up towards Canada/Greenland? Unlikely but keep watching

 

 

Edited by Dean E
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Weather-history Maestro

Weather-history

Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
Posted
2 minutes ago, Dean E said:

GFS 12z rolling out. Am very concerned about that Azores high, continued to be modelled very strongly now.

image.thumb.png.1c8fce0cd54779ac1af472ab61cedba0.png

We need heights to drop over S. Europe, but I think we all know where that high ends up,

There is a brief window to allow a secondary Low to move towards the Med however...

What that chart doesn't show is the high pressure over the eastern USA which effectively almost links up with the Azores High. That means the flow is effectively coming off Labrador and Newfoundland region rather than from the Bermuda area. , hence why cold zonality is a good possibility 

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Dean E Community Regular

Dean E

Posted
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire
Posted
Just now, Weather-history said:

What that chart doesn't show is the high pressure over the eastern USA which effectively almost links up with the Azores High. That means the flow is effectively coming off Labrador and Newfoundland region rather than from the Bermuda area. , hence why cold zonality is a good possibility 

Noticed this too, have edited to show! Apologies.

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frosty ground Veteran

frosty ground

Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
Posted
5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Everything looks great aside from that ruddy lobe of vortex spewing energy across the N Atlantic ruining any hope of retrogression..

Isn't that what fees the cold westerly  over the UK for 3 or 4 days.

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

Looks like coolish zonality: temps between about 5 and 8C with some showers. I can hardly wait!:help:

h850t850eu.png

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

Isn't that what fees the cold westerly  over the UK for 3 or 4 days.

Yes mate but we need some retrogression otherwise it will flatten out and it wont look pretty ..

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winterof79 Veteran

winterof79

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
Posted
1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Looks like coolish zonality: temps between about 5 and 8C with some showers. I can hardly wait!:help:

h850t850eu.png

Snow for the midland North a possibility:wink:

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ArHu3 Rising Star

ArHu3

Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Looks like coolish zonality: temps between about 5 and 8C with some showers. I can hardly wait!:help:

h850t850eu.png

With uppers between - 4 and - 8 probably even a bit colder like 0-4 C, so more like sleet, hail and freezing rain, right? 

Edited by ArHu3
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mulzy Accomplished

mulzy

Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
Posted (edited)

GEM day 10 is not without interest (yes I know its the GEM and I know it is day 10) but this kind of solution is very much in the envelope...

GEMOPEU12_240_1.png

Edited by mulzy
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