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Model output discussion - into 2018


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

I’m beginning to feel sorry for this easterly .

It’s being framed for crimes against coldies ! No output ever showed a proper easterly with deep cold and convection potential.

What we’ve seen is high pressure to the east/ne influencing the trough and trying to advect some cold air west then nw which might engage that.

If the block was to win out then at that point a chance but you need more energy over Central Southern Europe not directed towards Iberia.

Generally easterlies have trough disruption with a shortwave trigger not the whole trough trying to moving se.

 

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
3 minutes ago, ghoneym said:

 

 

5a52abbca2989_ScreenShot2018-01-07at23_16_17.thumb.png.0f82dc34e2b03ff421b12d8fc34637bf.png      +      5a52abc7bbe40_ScreenShot2018-01-07at23_22_03.thumb.png.b68e7b97511f0236602c53327e532066.png    +    5a52abd6eea00_ScreenShot2018-01-07at23_20_31.thumb.png.bdc50dda556f50deb93d1791dadf8926.png     =    5a52ac082734b_ScreenShot2018-01-07at23_23_36.thumb.png.c14edc03b87cfc5d75e9e3d0b0d63ab0.png  ?

Simple math? :D

Maths dammit! 

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Everyone knows I like to have a good moan ! The outputs are okay , things might develop more favourably and when you have a se jet track it does open up possibilities .

I’ve not wheeled out any of my film analogies or become too melodramatic which means I’m waiting to see how things unfold! :D

Give it a few more runs, we might still get the undercut but if not the se jet is still showing up and has good support.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Everyone knows I like to have a good moan ! The outputs are okay , things might develop more favourably and when you have a se jet track it does open up possibilities .

I’ve not wheeled out any of my film analogies or become too melodramatic which means I’m waiting to see how things unfold! :D

Give it a few more runs, we might still get the undercut but if not the se jet is still showing up and has good support.

Only problem now re- SE JET is that even what was -6 to -7 uppers are now becoming -4 - not good enough for any location, sorry if people think I'm a moaning negative boring moody git like ive been today but I am only saying what I see.

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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
28 minutes ago, Tom Jarvis said:

I’m putting this up as I do not understand why people are exspecting an cold zonal to deliver snow for everyone!!! When has it ever happened?? I don’t know as normally when this cold zonal gets down to t0 the uppers are completely underestimated and too mixed out, all we get in the end is then freezing rain which is all the south east has had this winter. I believe the models are underestimating the block so I’m sure allot of people will be surprised by what the models show in a weeks time. But if you think cold zonal is going to deliver the snowfest people want it will not happen all it will bring is cold rain. 

i think there might be a few snowman corpses still around from december to disagree with you....

2733802982_69806b2852.thumb.jpg.764d7fa4d69fa89d53c516ea22af9e63.jpg

"i came from the north-west"

see...

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Only problem now re- SE JET is that even what was -6 to -7 uppers are now becoming -4 - not good enough for any location, sorry if people think I'm a moaning negative boring moody git like ive been today but I am only saying what I see.

After the Arsenal result I could have done my Bette Davis impression but I’ve held it together well! :D  

So feel free to throw a few toys out of the pram !

I think Feb it’s a case of wait and see for a few more runs.

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39 minutes ago, Tom Jarvis said:

I’m putting this up as I do not understand why people are exspecting an cold zonal to deliver snow for everyone!!! When has it ever happened?? I don’t know as normally when this cold zonal gets down to t0 the uppers are completely underestimated and too mixed out, all we get in the end is then freezing rain which is all the south east has had this winter. I believe the models are underestimating the block so I’m sure allot of people will be surprised by what the models show in a weeks time. But if you think cold zonal is going to deliver the snowfest people want it will not happen all it will bring is cold rain. 

Didn't most of the Midlands central and southern uk have snow from a slider from the NW a few weeks ago?? and don't the Midlands have another snow event from the NW last week that closed major roads and Airports in the South East?? I'm afraid to say it but in the UK not one type of weather direction delivers for the entire country....so why on earth would anybody expect cold zonality to deliver for everyone?? for instance an Easterly is not really any good for me in my location but delivers for many, so far this winter my location has had an epic time from cold zonal weather types while many others have missed out so a snow fest for one is never going to be a snow fest for all it simply cannot work that way and never will.

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Posted
  • Location: West/East/Sussex Surrey border
  • Location: West/East/Sussex Surrey border
2 minutes ago, More Snow said:

Didn't most of the Midlands central and southern uk have snow from a slider from the NW a few weeks ago?? and don't the Midlands have another snow event from the NW last week that closed major roads and Airports in the South East?? I'm afraid to say it but in the UK not one type of weather direction delivers for the entire country....so why on earth would anybody expect cold zonality to deliver for everyone?? for instance an Easterly is not really any good for me in my location but delivers for many, so far this winter my location has had an epic time from cold zonal weather types while many others have missed out so a snow fest for one is never going to be a snow fest for all it simply cannot work that way and never will.

lol no

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, freezes, bitterly cold and icy. Thunderstorms and heatwaves!
  • Location: Lincolnshire

Not too bad at all, mean consistently at  or around -5 for some time, in London. Some decent zonality may just be around the corner, then who knows, the easterly we crave so badly may come at the end of the month ;);)

Screenshot_20180107-235021.jpg

Edited by Connor Bailey Degnan
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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
1 minute ago, More Snow said:

Didn't most of the Midlands central and southern uk have snow from a slider from the NW a few weeks ago?? and don't the Midlands have another snow event from the NW last week that closed major roads and Airports in the South East?? I'm afraid to say it but in the UK not one type of weather direction delivers for the entire country....so why on earth would anybody expect cold zonality to deliver for everyone?? for instance an Easterly is not really any good for me in my location but delivers for many, so far this winter my location has had an epic time from cold zonal weather types while many others have missed out so a snow fest for one is never going to be a snow fest for all it simply cannot work that way and never will.

Sliders and a PM airflow are different beasts entirely usually the first requires some cold in place especially in the near continent to deliver anything for the South and while NW'ly blasts are good the further N and W you go here in the SE all I get is slightly colder rain.

Only thing I care about is the Jet heading South but even then I'm tired of having these rain to snow events which are gone by the next day. After almost 0 luck since 2013 it's easy to assume why many are just starting to get agitated. 

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Posted
  • Location: West/East/Sussex Surrey border
  • Location: West/East/Sussex Surrey border
4 minutes ago, More Snow said:

so the news was lying then??

Most of the midlands and the SE did not have snow that laid and caused travel problems

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Just now, steveinsussex said:

Most of the midlands and the SE did not have snow that laid and caused travel problems

A14 CLOSED?? STANSTEAD AIRPORT CLOSED????  the first slider in December gave snow to many parts maybe not in Sussex but to many parts it did and then the snow that fell last week that closed roads and airports again may not have fallen in Sussex but it did effect many areas..

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Posted
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Click on my name - sorry, it was too long to fit here......
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire

Both events in the midlands in December in aras which saw the most snow had uppers widely of -4 or -5, dewpoints were below zero.

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Posted
  • Location: West/East/Sussex Surrey border
  • Location: West/East/Sussex Surrey border
Just now, More Snow said:

A14 CLOSED?? STANSTEAD AIRPORT CLOSED????  the first slider in December gave snow to many parts maybe not in Sussex but to many parts it did and then the snow that fell last week that closed roads and airports again may not have fallen in Sussex but it did effect many areas..

im not getting into this but you said most; plus it was very localised and dependent on elevation

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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
24 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

tentative signs on the GEFS of the strat warming as well.

quite a few showing the warming and the rest showing weird things going on like this one-

gensnh-8-7-384.thumb.png.848e734cf92dd3bb86de4ac02700be67.png

with the stratospheric vortex... well... dead!

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Just now, steveinsussex said:

im not getting into this but you said most; plus it was very localised and dependent on elevation

Did it not snow in your garden then??:help: again I will say that most of the midlands and the South east have seen snow this winter. and that is more than most of them have seen in the past few winters, don't matter if its rain to snow that's gone 24 hours later or if its snow that closes roads for days on end snow is snow and as I said the entire uk will never benefit from the weather coming from one certain direction.. so what works for me wont work for you and visa versa 

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

December 10th

gfs-2017121000-0-6.png

2 Days before 

gfs-2017120800-0-6.png

What is currently being modelled

gfs-0-192.png?18

They're different box of frogs and for many apart from the highlands of Scotland it's heavy rain and gales. Doesn't sound too exciting.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

quite a few showing the warming and the rest showing weird things going on like this one-

gensnh-8-7-384.thumb.png.848e734cf92dd3bb86de4ac02700be67.png

with the stratospheric vortex... well... dead!

Theyre ok -- that just means the warming coming a bit later - see the start of it -the green to our east.

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