Model output discussion - into 2018

[Frosty.]

Looking at the Ecm 12z we have to wait a week until it becomes potentially interesting with the trough disruption and isobars kinked to enable colder continental air into the mix, NE Scotland gets the coldest uppers..looks very marginal elsewhere.

[Dennis]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

That sounds VERY interesting!!

 

[ukpaul]

17 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

V decent snow event for S it looks not seen snow depth charts...  

All it does is weaken the snow for northern areas because of poorer alignment, too much north to south instead of north west to south east. For the south weather.us shows nothing. Too weak a feature and uppers are too high. Needs a more negative tilt at 120h/144h

Edited January 7, 2018 by ukpaul

[Dennis]

1 hour ago, CK1981 said:

As I see it, that low will dive south east to reinforce the block and edge the pattern westward?

yes its one option

[karlos1983]

I would say anyone looking at precipitation charts for next weekend really is wasting their time. It might be over the Atlantic or halfway across the North Sea! 

[steveinsussex]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

I would say anyone looking at precipitation charts for next weekend really is wasting their time. It might be over the Atlantic or halfway across the North Sea! 

Well John Hammond obv is

[Chris74]

 as a newbie I was just wondering is it a coincidence that at the time the models are showing  possible cold for us in the UK that temperature mid to back end of the month that places in Canada like Montreal and quebec go from the likes of daily highs of - 21 to  5 above freezing by the way it feels bitter here on the north Kent coast today in the wind.

[Chesil View]

Great to see continued movement towards a colder snowier scenario.

However yet again all the real action is beyond the reliable timeframe. 

So at the moment its still a fur coat and no knickers situation for me. 

Here's hoping the snowmaker scenarios starts counting down to the reliable time frame

Edited January 7, 2018 by Broadmayne blizzard

[karlos1983]

2 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

Well John Hammond obv is

He’s not, he just mentions the potential! Big difference. Which then made everyone go looking at snow depth charts for next weekend. ?

Edited January 7, 2018 by karlos1983

[ukpaul]

3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I would say anyone looking at precipitation charts for next weekend really is wasting their time. It might be over the Atlantic or halfway across the North Sea! 

Someone said the chart was snow for the south, what's wrong with showing that they were incorrect? 

[karyo]

11 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Looking at the Ecm 12z we have to wait a week until it becomes potentially interesting with the trough disruption and isobars kinked to enable colder continental air into the mix, NE Scotland gets the coldest uppers..looks very marginal elsewhere.

Agreed! Yesterday's 12 z ECM had colder uppers. The whole pattern needs to correct further west for more of the UK to benefit. If it stays like that we also miss the cold zonality.

[karlos1983]

3 minutes ago, ukpaul said:

Someone said the chart was snow for the south, what's wrong with showing that they were incorrect? 

Nothing at all... ?  Did I say that? I’m all up for anyone saying what they want, free world.  But those precip charts won’t verify probably, maybe, who knows, perhaps ?‍♂️

 

Edited January 7, 2018 by karlos1983

[chris pawsey]

Thats it then, great run... lets bank it!! But peps, its 1 run. No doubt we will all be all awaiting the pub run with baited breath and then wake up in the morning with toys and dummys everywhere! 

Nice trend to see but more runs needed 

[ukpaul]

3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Nothing at all... ?  Did I say that?

You said it wasting people's time, more to the point that not showing it was giving them false hope. 

EDIT: I already can see people saying it's a great run when it would take the rosiest of rose tinted spectacles to believe that. 

Edited January 7, 2018 by ukpaul

[Daniel*]

20 minutes ago, Bazray said:

For the south? Can you expand a touch for a newbie thanks

 

Hi,  

There’s little point going into detail at this stage too far out, but it’s one of those slider low scenarios. A more classic case low being deflected SE due to blocking high to NE and that amplification in the Atlantic aiding this. Ahead of the low the wind is coming off cold continent meaning good dew points, onshore wind so this may limit snow chances for coastal areas. I would expect it to be all snow away from coastal areas uppers are fine and the extreme south west knocker land, I think it’s plausible for there to be a significant snow event in next 7-10 days.

[Lampostwatcher]

nice charts today 

people looking at snow depth charts at t144 ??

even t6 they can be wrong 

[Spah1]

Edit

Edited January 7, 2018 by Spah1

[Bazray]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

Hi,  

There’s little point going into detail at this stage too far out, but it’s one of those slider low scenarios. A more classic case low being deflected SE due to blocking high to NE and that amplification in the Atlantic aiding this. Ahead of the low the wind is coming off cold continent meaning good dew points, onshore wind so this may limit snow chances for coastal areas. I would expect it to be all snow away from coastal areas uppers are fine and the extreme south west knocker land, I think it’s plausible for there to be a significant snow event in next 7-10 days.

Thats great Thank you for taking the time to reply! Hope your right

[Daniel*]

23 minutes ago, swilliam said:

It is a rain event unfortunately -can't seem to post the image

 

I’m certain it wouldn’t be... those EC snow charts are woeful. They tend to overdo it massively in this case I think it’s way underdone but this is silly talking about a snow event as if it’ll happen at day 8. 

[markw2680]

It’s all about trends at this far out, the models can’t all agree on an outcome so why the hell will they get precipitation correct? Come on people get a grip, just enjoy what may or not be lurking 

[Midlands Ice Age]

1 hour ago, TheBeastFromTheEAST said:

Hi Steve, some are saying that the met are not going with there own model and not going with an easterly in there outlook. What's your thoughts and gut feeling the way you see it paning out?

 

Thanks.

Yep just seen countryfile weekly outlook, Getting milder during the week with Atlantic break through on Friday.

 Which model do they use?

 MIA

[That ECM]

1 minute ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Yep just seen countryfile weekly outlook, Getting milder during the week with Atlantic break through on Friday.

 Which model do they use?

 MIA

Ones that are out of date!! 

[bobbydog]

2 minutes ago, ukpaul said:

You said it wasting people's time, more to the point that not showing it was giving them false hope. 

EDIT: I already can see people saying it's a great run when it would take the rosiest of rose tinted spectacles to believe that. 

its a great run in the context of the bigger picture. its yet another move towards maintaining the block and allowing an easterly flow with lows going under. the fine details are almost irrelevant which is the point karlos was making. he wasn't having a go... and he's right. there's no point in looking at (especially) snow amounts 10 days out.

[Djdazzle]

2 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Yep just seen countryfile weekly outlook, Getting milder during the week with Atlantic break through on Friday.

 Which model do they use?

 MIA

Which totally seems to go against what John Hammond has tweeted!

[Lampostwatcher]

2 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Yep just seen countryfile weekly outlook, Getting milder during the week with Atlantic break through on Friday.

 Which model do they use?

 MIA

not the one john hammond is using