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Model output discussion - into 2018


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

Ecm still on track at t96:D

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

The suspense for the 120 chart is incredible.

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Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
6 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Ecm still on track at t96:D

Feels like we have been saying that for the last 5 years.

Edited by The Eagle
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Posted
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Snow>Freezing Fog; Summer: Sun>Daytime Storms
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
16 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

TodayModele UKMO - Carte prévisions

YesterdayModele UKMO - Carte prévisions  Archives

Still amazing but it's getting to crunch time and GFS still isn't on board. 

Steady - all I was expecting from UKMO. If future 12z outputs remain steady than when asked the question "and where is GFS?" The response can be "quite frankly who cares?".

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

ECMECM1-120.GIF?07-0 UKMO Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

ECM looking like a stronger block? Could it be boom town?

 

Edited by SN0WM4N
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Posted
  • Location: Gravesend (by the thames) and work Borough Green deliveries on job around the South east
  • Weather Preferences: Snow November to March. Heat and sun late April to early October
  • Location: Gravesend (by the thames) and work Borough Green deliveries on job around the South east
1 minute ago, SN0WM4N said:

ECMECM1-120.GIF?07-0 UKMO Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

ECM looking like a stronger block? Could it be boom town?

 

Or a classic case of ECM over amping??

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Brilliant 120z from ECM, here's the ECM, UKMO, and GFS for comparison.:yahoo:

T144 will be the biggie, can the Atlantic be pushed back? The question that everyone is asking.:D

ECM1-120.gif

UW120-21.gif

gfs-0-120.png

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

A proper easterly in one that can deliver snow showers has to wait till the Atlantic has been beaten into submission !

 

Lol.

I need the Atlantic fronts bumping into the cold flow for the snow to be significant, so the Atlantic can edge in as much as it needs to (but not to much ;) )

However this is a great example of the thread in general, and why we had a flurry of posts questioning different members take on what the models show.

for example...

Im not particularly interested in snow showers packing in from the east (they rarely get this far west)....my interest lies with frontal snow edging in from the Atlantic. Others in the south east would prefer those showes from the east, and those in Scotland probably are not that interested at all in the easterly if it's snow they are after. ( the one caveat being a repeat of Feb 91 or Jan 87 etc)

So even though it shouldn't happen, it's pretty well certain most will comment on the models initially from there own locations perspective.

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
1 minute ago, John Michael How said:

Or a classic case of ECM over amping??

It's sat next to the UKMO so probably not? Who knows really.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Uppers UKMO and ECM at T120.:D

UW120-7.gif

ECM0-120.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Not going to be popular but i fear the block is to far east on the EC..

 

Your not wrong there mate :D:cold:

Popular that is

Edited by SteveB
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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

Angle of the trough not quite as good as UKMO has it. A shame given how the +96 was - but there is still scope for further adjustments (albeit in either direction!).

I am picking hairs I suppose. If that cold air could just get far west enough to interfere with the frontal boundary and force the southern limits to continue ahead of the northern such that you get the negative trough tilt... that being what happens in a classic setup with the cold already closer by. The lack of that on this occasion may be the downfall on this particular occasion. Maybe.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Close to a battleground scenario at T144, Atlantic being held at bay, nail biting stuff!:laugh:

ECM1-144.gif

ECM0-144.gif

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Posted
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
  • Weather Preferences: mediterranean summer
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
2 minutes ago, snowray said:

Close to a battleground scenario at T144, Atlantic being held at bay, nail biting stuff!:laugh:

ECM1-144.gif

ECM0-144.gif

we could well get a huge undercut with these charts and the holly grail a greenie

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

What, by being honest??

T144 charts are like light years away right now. UKMO & ECM, V, GFS again, close to something very special on the ECM. If only we could get the undercut at T168.:rolleyes:

Edited by snowray
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, snowray said:

T144 charts are like light years away right now. UKMO & ECM, V, GFS again, close to something very special on the ECM.

yes, i was commenting on the EC det- i feel the block needs to be further west- 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

Trough beginning to disrupt against the block...

ECM1-168.GIF?07-0 ECU1-168.GIF?07-0

Edited by SN0WM4N
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