Model output discussion - into 2018

[Spah1]

44 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

UKMO 144 is a bit of a downgrade it has to be said.

 

Don’t think so. 

Cold air making inroads West. 

Why do you think it is a poorer chart? 

Edit Already answered. ?

Edited January 7, 2018 by Spah1

[Djdazzle]

16 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I’d like to know how on earth we get to a 10% chance of an easterly given what the UKMO has shown consistently for the last few runs... 

If the answer is gfs then that’s a joke, it’s shown more outcomes than I care to remember. 

Well for a start none of the UKMO output is anywhere near the reliable time frame. Remember that we have had cross model agreement on easterly outbreaks at +72 only for it to go wrong. And with GFS saying no, that adds to the uncertainty.

Like it or not, the Easterly is still very much a long shot at this stage. If there is a good ECM tonight, then the odds improve slightly.

Edited January 7, 2018 by Djdazzle

[SLEETY]

15 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

UKMO 850's show the cold incoming across Europe. 

• 120  144 

This is clearly still not resolved, but given the relative stubbornness of the UKMO, along with GFS evolving towards it, we are still in with a shout.  More than can be said for recent winters. 

 

So close.-12hpa knocking on the door.Will it get here.Looking at past Easterly attempts recently,you would have to say no I’m afraid.There is a chance,but need to see it again looking like that in the next model runs.Put it this way,would you put money on the Easterly winning out.

[bryan629]

Like for like GFS in 24 hours from this time yesterday 

12z 06/01/18                                              12z 07/01/18 

168 yesterday                                            144 today

Thats  a WHOPPING  great big difference in just 24 hrs , lots to be resolved..!! 

[karyo]

2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

For clarity, I’m by no means saying I think an easterly is nailed on, I’d say it’s 50-50 at the moment. That’s probably being a little cautious. 

50-50 although no model shows the easterly making it here?

[Snowman.]

1 minute ago, karyo said:

Exactly! If anything the cold uppers to the east have shrunk a bit.

Hence why I said downgrade even if slight. 

[ArHu3]

1 minute ago, karyo said:

Exactly! If anything the cold uppers to the east have shrunk a bit.

That's because of the 12h difference in time, uppers warm up a little during the day and cool during the night 

[NorthYorksWeather]

3 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

850's Looks the same.....aren't we suppose to progress run by run or am I doing something wrong  

0z       and twelve hrs later..... 12z  

Yes and cold pool not as good as the 0z, whilst the UKMO is still very good my initial thought when viewing it was slight downgrade. (don't hit me)

With UKMO showing poss easterly and GFS showing poss cold zonality we will probably end up middle ground in no man lands knowing our luck.

[N/A]

24 minutes ago, ukpaul said:

Look at the jet forecast, it'll stop egg on face later. The 06z was poor because it took it further north and barrelled through the UK whereas before it hit the south only. This time, for the 12z GFS it's even further north so NW to SE is becoming W to E and that's a big step backwards by 162h.

You're right southern UK has had its fair share of severe gales along with frequent heavy rain this week, if the jet keeps going north so does the bulk of rain & gales allowing the south to dry out a bit and it would certainly be a big relief for those residents in Portreath Cornwall who are now without part of their harbour wall to keep the sea out 

[karyo]

2 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

That's because of the 12h difference in time, uppers warm up a little during the day and cool during the night 

I don't think that's right, especially not in January with the weak sun.

[karlos1983]

Just now, Djdazzle said:

Well for a start none of the UKMO output is anywhere near the reliable time frame. Remember that we have had cross model agreement on easterly outbreaks at +72 only for it to go wrong. And with GFS saying no, that adds to the uncertainty.

Like it Irma not, the Easterly is still very much a long shot at this stage. If there is a good ECM tonight, then the odds improve slightly.

We will have to agree to disagree here, ecm hasn’t exactly covered itself in glory in recent days. UKMO has been consistent. 

GFS .... I’m not even going to comment on. Other than it’s been moving more and more toward the ukmo almost with each run. 

[ArHu3]

1 minute ago, karyo said:

I don't think that's right, especially not in January with the weak sun.

Look at icon (it has a lot of frames so easy to see)  850hpa temps and see how they darken during the night 

[nick sussex]

Even if a proper easterly doesn’t appear within the next week you still have a chance of some snow , any flow from the se will deliver that once the deeper cold has got sufficiently west.

So it’s worth taking a chance to see if you can get that undercut because if you get the undercut you may well afterwards see the cold hanging on longer with a build of pressure to the north.

Whereas chasing the PM flow with its marginality may get you a week in Butlins but won’t get you anywhere nicer.

People need to stop obsessing over a more sustained direct easterly flow , it won’t happen if and until the winner of this first battle is decided.

All easterlies involve some skirmish with the Atlantic because it’s the trough disruption and lower heights developing in Central Southern Europe which sustain that easterly at the outset.

 

 

Edited January 7, 2018 by nick sussex

[Djdazzle]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

We will have to agree to disagree here, ecm hasn’t exactly covered itself in glory in recent days. UKMO has been consistent. 

GFS .... I’m not even going to comment on. Other than it’s been moving more and more toward the ukmo almost with each run. 

If an Easterly is showing at less than T+96 I’ll be interested!

But you can’t call this anywhere’s near to 50:50. There are far more ways to end up without the Easterly than with!

[Dancerwithwings]

1 minute ago, vizzy2004 said:

Yes and cold pool not as good as the 0z, whilst the UKMO is still very good my initial thought when viewing it was slight downgrade. (don't hit me)

With UKMO showing poss easterly and GFS showing poss cold zonality we will probably end up middle ground in no man lands knowing our luck.

I'm getting bored now with this idea/hearing of the endless definite possibilities of an immanent beastly/easterly on it's way...AS SUCH.... with no show...

If the ECM doesn't show promise this evening I'm giving up......Well for a bit 

[Methuselah]

10 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

We will have to agree to disagree here, ecm hasn’t exactly covered itself in glory in recent days. UKMO has been consistent. 

GFS .... I’m not even going to comment on. Other than it’s been moving more and more toward the ukmo almost with each run. 

Don't tell us karlos, mate - the GFS is still in police custody, for for having moidered the last dose of Snowmageddon? Whatever happened to habeus corpus!

 

Edited January 7, 2018 by Ed Stone

[karlos1983]

6 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

If an Easterly is showing at less than T+96 I’ll be interested!

But you can’t call this anywhere’s near to 50:50. There are far more ways to end up without the Easterly than with!

Ok then 49:51 

[Tim Bland]

Just for clarity the UKMO doesn’t show an easterly. At the end (144hrs) it actually shows a light southerly. It’s possible if it went further it could develop an easterly though.  The only run I have seen recently which showed a proper Easterly was last nights ECM ...fingers crossed it goes that way again tonight! 

[winterof79]

1 minute ago, ShortWaveHell said:

Meanwhile another GFS12z another ? 

But it does not show consistently run to run unfortunately.

[SLEETY]

If the Easterly does arrive then the met must get rid of their further outlook forecasts that they publish.as they seem so confident it won’t happen in their latest update

seems they are ignoring their own model ,you CANNOT write off the Easterly with -12 hpa on the other side of the North Sea,surely ?.

Big drop in their credibility if it does arrive at the end of the week.

And big ECM coming ,will it push through the Atlantic like gfs does or hold it back.

[Jayces]

18 minutes ago, vizzy2004 said:

Yes and cold pool not as good as the 0z, whilst the UKMO is still very good my initial thought when viewing it was slight downgrade. (don't hit me)

With UKMO showing poss easterly and GFS showing poss cold zonality we will probably end up middle ground in no man lands knowing our luck.

On that quoted post you are comparing temperatures at 1 AM on Saturday the 13th of January to 1 PM on Saturday the 13th of January so the second chart will have warmer temperatures as it's day time time whereas the first chart is night time.

I think this is why @johnholmes is always saying compare like for like 0z to 0z for example to avoid this sort of confusion.

[Met4Cast]

1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

If the Easterly does arrive then the met must get rid of their further outlook forecasts that they publish.as they seem so confident it won’t happen in their latest update

seems they are ignoring their own model ,you CANNOT write off the Easterly with -12 hpa on the other side of the North Sea,surely ?.

Big drop in their credibility if it does arrive at the end of the week.

And big ECM coming ,will it push through the Atlantic like gfs does or hold it back.

The -12c temperature are on a single deterministic run on a single model, It's hardly a surprise the Met isn't jumping over themselves with forecasting an Easterly. 

The most likely outcome when taking all the ensembles/outputs from the last few days and today remains that of cold zonal, not bitter cold Easterly winds.

[Snowman.]

1 minute ago, Jayces said:

On that quoted post you are comparing temperatures at 1 AM on Saturday the 13th of January to 1 PM on Saturday the 13th of January so the second chart will have warmer temperatures as it's day time time whereas the first chart is night time.

I think this is why @johnholmes is always saying compare like for like 0z to 0z for example to avoid this sort of confusion.

You can't because that is the max chart.

But you can compare the previous chart which shows less cold coming from under the high due to orientation of it being slightly less favourable than its 0z output.

[pdiddy]

19 minutes ago, karyo said:

I don't think that's right, especially not in January with the weak sun.

Agree - I thought 850s were unaffected by day/night meaning a better indication of air mass temps?

[Team Jo]

Genuinely considering adding the word Easterly to the Swear filter. 

There’s so much to be resolved at the ‘reliable’ time frame, I wouldn’t hang my hat on any of the outcomes - 10 days ago winter was over wasn’t it?

On a serious note, there is some lively debate in here tonight which I think is really good for he most part. The part I’m not so keen on is the almost persistent attempts by some to shoot one another down. You don’t get any prizes for calling this one right or wrong. If you vehemently disagree with a poster I’d recommend PMing then rather than publicly nitpicking. Else your posts (and posting ability) might have to be revoked for a bit. Just be nice!

As ever usual request apply, charts to back up one liners, Meto office and countryside discussion in other threads, sobbing into your wine on banter....

come on then ECM, what have you got for us tonight?!