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Model output discussion - into 2018


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex

I don’t get all the enthusiasm for an Easterly when there is so little evidence to support it?

The UKMO 144 chart would surely go on to show the block sinking SE, with lots of pressure from the northern arm of the jet. No support from GFS either. Of course, things can trend better, but I still believe that the chance of an Easterly is no more than 10%. I’m more than happy for someone to convince me otherwise.

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Posted
  • Location: porth (Welsh valleys)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and very cold.
  • Location: porth (Welsh valleys)
15 minutes ago, Chris. said:

If people explained their reasonings behind their presumptions it would make the thread a lot better to those who dont understand fully whats going on.

 

What use is close to brilliant and downgrade all within 3 posts for the same model, same timeframe as doctor pointed out.

 

Justify your thoughts and helps everyone learn better or look at the reasoning for your comments good or bad.

I think it's safe to say if one person says it's Black someone else will so 'no,it's white'!

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

UKMO 850's show the cold incoming across Europe. 

  • 120 Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions 144 Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

This is clearly still not resolved, but given the relative stubbornness of the UKMO, along with GFS evolving towards it, we are still in with a shout.  More than can be said for recent winters. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, Ice Day said:

UKMO 850's show the cold incoming across Europe. 

  • 120 Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions 144 Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

This is clearly still not resolved, but given the relative stubbornness of the UKMO, along with GFS evolving towards it, we are still in with a shout.  More than can be said for recent winters. 

 

Thats going to be the mother of all letdowns if it fails at 168- -12 uppers approaching the north sea at 144!

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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone

Cold zonal express incoming again in GFS always nice to see let's see if heights can rise in Greenland area again.

Big ridge heading into arctic from west states along with big block to are east.:)

Screenshot_20180107-162756.png

Screenshot_20180107-162740.png

Screenshot_20180107-163157.png

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Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Thats going to be the mother of all letdowns if it fails at 168- -12 uppers approaching the north sea at 144!

I benefit more than most here from UKMO output, but I just think how disinterested the GEFS continues to be.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

I’d like to know how on earth we get to a 10% chance of an easterly given what the UKMO has shown consistently for the last few runs... :cc_confused:

If the answer is gfs then that’s a joke, it’s shown more outcomes than I care to remember. 

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Click on my name - sorry, it was too long to fit here......
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
15 minutes ago, ukpaul said:

Look at the jet forecast, it'll stop egg on face later. The 06z was poor because it took it further north and barrelled through the UK whereas before it hit the south only. This time, for the 12z GFS it's even further north so NW to SE is becoming W to E and that's a big step backwards by 162h.

By 192h, however, the jet miraculously dives south, saving the run at this point. Here's the comparison.

06z then 12z

gfsnh-5-192_hrh5.png  gfsnh-5-192_fab3.png

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Thats going to be the mother of all letdowns if it fails at 168- -12 uppers approaching the north sea at 144!

You're not wrong!!!  I'm thoroughly enjoying this spell of model watching as we are entering a fairly rare synoptic set up which I suspect ALL models will struggle with.  I would say anything outside of 84 hours is up for grabs!

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Thats going to be the mother of all letdowns if it fails at 168- -12 uppers approaching the north sea at 144!

It doesn’t matter if that initial deeper cold misses the UK. There’s enough cold to the east and se to deliver a snow event if the flow ahead of any precip is just se.

As long as that cold makes it far enough west before heading nw then your surface flow will deliver sub zero dew points.

As long as the upstream trough disrupts enough energy se at T168hrs  then it’s a guaranteed snow event for parts of the UK.

 

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Just compares this morning 132 hour chart on the gfs to the 12z 120 hour chart  and oh my word the atlantic is nearly 300 miles further west and the scandi high is way stronger aswell!!its ridiculous how much its changed in 12 hours!!has the beast been awoken?

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
28 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Nothing wrong with varying opinions, be very boring if we all just agreed lol

UKMO 144 isn’t a downgrade, block edging west along with cold uppers, Atlantic pushing up against the block. Will it disrupt? Guess we will have to wait for the next most important run of the winter the 00z ?

Quite agree. If people are looking for a single opinion and not a discussion, best to go on the Met Office site, the posters on here have always had varying opinions, some love cold, some mild and some are just concerned with what they get in their back yard.:)

 

Anyway, cold zonality returns on the 12z.

gfs-0-228.png

gfs-1-228.png

Edited by snowray
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Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
1 minute ago, shaky said:

Just compares this morning 132 hour chart on the gfs to the 12z 120 hour chart  and oh my word the atlantic is nearly 300 miles further west and the scandi high is way stronger aswell!!its ridiculous how much its changed in 12 hours!!has the beast been awoken?

Was just thinking the same thing... I think it’s coming slowly but surely 

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Posted
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
9 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

UKMO 850's show the cold incoming across Europe. 

  • 120 Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions 144 Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

This is clearly still not resolved, but given the relative stubbornness of the UKMO, along with GFS evolving towards it, we are still in with a shout.  More than can be said for recent winters. 

 

Look how close those really cold uppers are! Wouldn’t take much westward adjustment to bring us into the game.

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Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
2 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

I don’t get all the enthusiasm for an Easterly when there is so little evidence to support it?

The UKMO 144 chart would surely go on to show the block sinking SE, with lots of pressure from the northern arm of the jet. No support from GFS either. Of course, things can trend better, but I still believe that the chance of an Easterly is no more than 10%. I’m more than happy for someone to convince me otherwise.

Spot on IMHO. Brave post in here but I'm thinking the same thing. 

Its not like last year where the position was utterly hopeless and I think the block will prove more resilient, but as weather history suggests its more likely a suckers high. Cool and dry away from the NW is much more likely than a snowy convective easterly. Its more mid latitude than HLB blocking as has been the way for several years now. 

How I'd love to be proved wrong! A good old fashioned easterly would be great :). If the determination on this forum mattered we would be in business!!

 

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
1 minute ago, CK1981 said:

Look how close those really cold uppers are! Wouldn’t take much westward adjustment to bring us into the game.

Exactly, 30 x miles per run, 2 x runs per day, 6 x days to go = 360 miles further west and, hey presto, we're all in the game.  Simples....you can thank me later.

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Thats going to be the mother of all letdowns if it fails at 168- -12 uppers approaching the north sea at 144!

850's Looks the same.....aren't we suppose to progress run by run or am I doing something wrong :unsure2: 

0z   UN144-7_eza2.GIF    and twelve hrs later..... 12z   UN144-7_lfo4.GIF

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne
  • Location: Eastbourne

I don't ever comment on the models and what they show on here so be gentle. To me none of the models have got this right yet after days 4-6, what is obvious is that this high over Scandi is not budging anywhere quickly though.

The UKMO has been resolute holding the block but not finding a clean route for the lows to travel into mainland Europe - it does however hold the high in place without any sinking showing that it believes the most likely scenario is for this to remain roughly in place. This has been consistent now for days and most of the other models have been moving towards it evolution recently.

I think the word battleground is not a bad description but not a battleground which is a snowy one (yet anyway).

This could go anyway but in my opinion based on what I can see in the daily output over the last days + some (small) knowledge of prior history of these setups I don't think we have yet seen any model show us the likely correct direction of travel, I also believe that this holding pattern could stretch for a few more days yet with the UKMO for example spilling out the same picture for days 4-6 until it finds the right solution. 

Whilst it holds the pattern, in fact the longer this picture holds in my opinion the more likelihood or chances are that we could get the trough disruption into Europe and find the easterly and cold.

Just my thoughts.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

For clarity, I’m by no means saying I think an easterly is nailed on, I’d say it’s 50-50 at the moment. That’s probably being a little cautious. 

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside

Well a real vast array of differing opinions this afternoon on the latest GFS & UKMO runs.

My take would be the UKMO still looks very good, the Scandi block at 120 is well orientated and looks pretty strong. History tells us in these situations computer models always try to shift these setups far too easily, I would not be surprised as we move closer in time that we see the block further west and energy being forced under.

UN120-21.thumb.GIF.418a8d4c933410881e1a4b6c739735eb.GIF

The GFS on the other hand not as good at 120. The high not aswell defined, quite flabby around the edges and is already coming under pressure from the north west.

gfsnh-0-120.thumb.png.9ec277b67016bc1e5151fef9b03f4fc1.png

Which eventually gives way to the Atlantic barging through from a chilly North West.

gfsnh-0-192.thumb.png.2ee8e4d8859097cecba83908787490bc.png

However as I've already said above is the Atlantic going to blast through this easily in the first place?

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
1 minute ago, Dancerwithwings said:

850's Looks the same.....aren't we suppose to progress run by run or am I doing something wrong :unsure2: 

0z   UN144-7_eza2.GIF    and twelve hrs later..... 12z   UN144-7_lfo4.GIF

Exactly! If anything the cold uppers to the east have shrunk a bit.

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