Model output discussion - into 2018

[Chris.]

If people explained their reasonings behind their presumptions it would make the thread a lot better to those who dont understand fully whats going on.

 

What use is close to brilliant and downgrade all within 3 posts for the same model, same timeframe as doctor pointed out.

 

Justify your thoughts and helps everyone learn better or look at the reasoning for your comments good or bad.

[mountain shadow]

2 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

Compared to what it was showing this morning the high is under attack from NE a lot more. Still good just not as good as it was earlier hence the tern 'downgrade'.

Under attack from the NE? Eh?

That doesn't make any sense.

[karlos1983]

Nothing wrong with varying opinions, be very boring if we all just agreed lol

UKMO 144 isn’t a downgrade, block edging west along with cold uppers, Atlantic pushing up against the block. Will it disrupt? Guess we will have to wait for the next most important run of the winter the 00z ?

[PLANET THANET]

7 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

UKMO 144 is a bit of a downgrade it has to be said.

 

karlos says close to brilliant and snowman says a downgrade in the next post, both at 144 ?????

sorry, already queried

Edited January 7, 2018 by PLANET THANET

[CK1981]

Looks like the pattern continues to head west. Baby steps...

[Johnp]

6 minutes ago, doctor32 said:

 

Very confused here guys?

It's because some people write with such authority...when in fact they don't know what they're talking about.?

[doctor32]

So i take it as soon as that first disruption from the atlantic gets resolved in the 72h to 90h time frame any output after that is likely not to be correct? Depending on which model is on the money regarding this!

[Snowman.]

3 minutes ago, Chris. said:

If people explained their reasonings behind their presumptions it would make the thread a lot better to those who dont understand fully whats going on.

 

What use is close to brilliant and downgrade all within 3 posts for the same model, same timeframe as doctor pointed out.

 

Justify your thoughts and helps everyone learn better or look at the reasoning for your comments good or bad.

I explained my reasoning.

If you was to follow on from the 0z with 12z you would notice that the block is under more pressure and the winds along the SE of the high are not straight easterly like the 0z. Good chart but way to close to the knife edge where the 0z was a lot more safer.

[jvenge]

I could quite easily believe the UKMO over the GFS, but over the GEFS is a big ask.

[Frosty.]

I will put this out there, the ukmo 12z isn't a downgrade, it follows on well from it's 00z and is poised for a mexican standoff between the atlantic and the cold block to the east which is so tantalizingly close to drawing much colder air into the uk ( just across the north sea!) the drama goes on, the plot thickens!

Edited January 7, 2018 by Frosty.

[ukpaul]

Look at the jet forecast, it'll stop egg on face later. The 06z was poor because it took it further north and barrelled through the UK whereas before it hit the south only. This time, for the 12z GFS it's even further north so NW to SE is becoming W to E and that's a big step backwards by 162h.

[andymusic]

the easterly might just get here by .Easter - ly - if it goes any slower

Edited January 7, 2018 by andymusic

[Johnp]

Have we had cross model agreement on anything this winter? Apart from a mild Xmas day?

[Johnp]

2 minutes ago, jvenge said:

I could quite easily believe the UKMO over the GFS, but over the GEFS is a big ask.

Why would you believe it versus a high res operational run, but not against the 20 low resolution patterns spewed out four times daily?

[shetland islands]

4 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Let battle commence!

According to the UKMO update, they are not onboard with the block winning. I know this is subject to change, but their lack of support for any extensive cold concerns me. Remember *some* of the models were showing cold uppers for this weekend and it was watered down to a cool weekend with daytime temperatures actually hitting 8C in the South. 

 

Better GFS though a suspect a battleground is setting up with, maybe, some interest before the Atlantic wins in later runs.  

 

[northwestsnow]

Well i can see an argument either way on ukmo, the block looks strong, but i'm not seeing enough Atlantic energy going under.

I'm not at all convinced an easterly will be coming at 168..

GFS looks carp, again..

Id suggest we need the pattern another 200miles west on ukmo, the trough which we would need around Italy is actually near crete.

Edited January 7, 2018 by northwestsnow

[Johnp]

5 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

I explained my reasoning.

If you was to follow on from the 0z with 12z you would notice that the block is under more pressure and the winds along the SE of the high are not straight easterly like the 0z. Good chart but way to close to the knife edge where the 0z was a lot more safer.

The pattern is the same as the 00z run though, that's the main thing.  You're unlikely to get two consecutive identical runs (especially the UKMO 144 charts!)

[Weather-history]

Personally I think to the east is should be nicknamed as a "Sucker's High". It will suck us all in with "will it or won't it" with the models and before you know it about a fortnight of winter has gone and nothing to show for it except exasperation, hair pulling and "I won't fall for it next winter" at the end of it.

[karyo]

The UKMO has been remarkably consistent with the Scandi high  but it has to be said that even that doesn't bring us an easterly. The easterly at 144 hours stops in Germany and even there is it more southeastely than easterly. 

The low pressure between Greenland and Iceland is too deep and too round to allow any easterly for us. It will have to be shallower and disrupt southwards somewhat. It may happen is subsequent runs or it may not. As things stand I don't think we are closer to the easterly than this morning.

[nick sussex]

A proper easterly in one that can deliver snow showers has to wait till the Atlantic has been beaten into submission !

At the moment we’re in the early skirmishes between the Atlantic and the block .

However that doesn’t rule out an undercut , we just need trough disruption to send energy se and there’s enough cold air to the east to undercut that.

The debate seems to becoming polarized because one persons easterly is another’s non easterly!

We just want the block to resist this first attack and then we might see a more typical easterly.

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Well i can see an argument either way on ukmo, the block looks strong, but i'm not seeing enough Atlantic energy going under.

I'm not at all convinced an easterly will be coming at 168..

GFS looks carp, again..

imo you won’t see the Antlanic push through, that is a pretty robust block and would take some shifting! If it turns out as modelled that is.

 

 

[Snowman.]

1 minute ago, Johnp said:

The pattern is the same as the 00z run though, that's the main thing.  You're unlikely to get two consecutive identical runs (especially the UKMO 144 charts!)

But it's not AS good so a downgrade if only slight. Our wiggle is so tight and with the UKMO 12z it would only get smaller. I said it was still OK still better than the GFS.

[jvenge]

5 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Why would you believe it versus a high res operational run, but not against the 20 low resolution patterns spewed out four times daily?

You answered your own question as far as I'm concerned.

[andymusic]

the cold displaced pm sourced air looks a better bet to me for cold and snowy weather, so let's hope this stale easterly does one shortly so we can get out of no mans land and get on with some real weather again

[karyo]

2 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Personally I think to the east is should be nicknamed as a "Sucker's High". It will suck us all in with "will it or won't it" with the models and before you know it about a fortnight of winter has gone and nothing to show for it except exasperation, hair pulling and "I won't fall for it next winter" at the end of it.

I couldn't agree more! If I lived in Germany or even Belgium I would be more keen on a Scandi high but here we are at the end of the line and more often than not we fail to get any benefit from it.