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Model output discussion - into 2018


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
4 minutes ago, Singularity said:

gfs-0-78.png?6 gfs-0-72.png?12

All the small things... they count in situations like this. The LP by Iceland is further west and as Steve has just noted, the LP by the UK is separating a little better.

How much it counts, well that comes down to the model as much as anything. Some models will adjust more than others following such tweaks.

A truly fascinating period upon us with major shifts of momentum and forcing patterns too and fro.

gfs-0-78.png?12

Well then - a closed isobar for the southern LP already. I have been skeptical of our easterly chances (for several days now, a chilly ridge outcome has been my 'safe estimate') for sanity's sake but I am starting to wonder if the westerlies might just be subdued enough in our vicinity... hmm.

Yes it has shifted Scandi heights 100 miles west,not much but West.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
2 minutes ago, karyo said:

The updated ICON brings a cold westerly by the end of the run (180 hours). No sign of an easterly there.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/icone_cartes.php?&ech=180&mode=1&map=0&archive=0 

It’s cannon fodder only to be used to self soothe when the rest aren’t up to much!:D

It actually follows the GFS 06hrs run in terms of the Pacific area losing that lobe of high pressure which kept the PV further back to the nw.

Lets hope the GFS 12 hrs run keeps flipping in that respect!

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

gfs-0-90.png?6 gfs-0-84.png?12

Further to the above - a notable extension west in the higher heights reaching NW from Scandinavia. 

The real issue for our weather prospects is not so much whether it stays mostly dry and chilly Mon-Fri (this is a side-effect of the blocking adjustments but can also occur via more ridging from the Azores which is not sufficient in itself; the ridge needs to go more N than NE), but whether the blocking high can get sufficiently far north and west during that period to face down the stronger push from the west that remains likely for the weekend due to the propagation of anomalies associated with the GLAAM drop. 

The GLAAM/GWO change fires the arrow, the blocking high raises the shield.

Actually, it's more like a trebuchet shot coming in so it's going to take something impressive to win out!

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

UKMO/GFS day 4

UN96-21.GIF?07-16   gfsnh-0-96.png?12

Still large differences here, the cold air already starting to cut underneath the high from the east as far north as the Baltic with the ridge decining away towards the Middle east, the GFS better but still not angling that cold air as sharply as the UKMO.

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

UKMO no backdown. Past three 12z with the first being the most recent.

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions  Archives Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions  Archives

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

The block to me is further nw again at t96!! Small steps but they are in the right direction run after run.

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

UKMO still wants to play at 120

D119B4B6-4B64-44B5-895A-DB03BE32C55B.thumb.gif.dbfbedd9a58ce8d4e79fec14e7d0baa0.gif

Nice WAA should aid the block!

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
Just now, Captain Shortwave said:

UKMO/GFS day 4

UN96-21.GIF?07-16   gfsnh-0-96.png?12

Still large differences here, the cold air already starting to cut underneath the high from the east as far north as the Baltic with the ridge decining away towards the Middle east, the GFS better but still not angling that cold air as sharply as the UKMO.

It is amazing how resolutely the focal point of the HP circulation is projected to be in the respective locations that the two models are running with.

Seems that GFS just won't stop taking a weak disturbance over the high during days 3-4 which looks to be at least part of the reason for the HP focusing further SE despite the undercutting low having now come nearly in line with UKMO.

As far as I can see, both UKMO and the 00z ECM took that weak disturbance SE to undercut the ridge alongside the feature by southern UK. 

So we have got GFS more or less into line with one of the features, but not with the other. 

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

UKMO at 144 is close to brilliant.

1717E8A3-8090-4C97-93B9-A01357D573C6.thumb.gif.cb802d3e106583a35f4fb6c3dbac06d5.gif

Has to be said the UKMO has been incredibly consistent over recent days.... what is yet unknown is has it been consistently right or wrong..... TBC

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

UKMO 144 is a bit of a downgrade it has to be said.

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

 

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Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside

Not a whole lot of change from the GFS 120 6z to 12z. UKMO still looking good.

gfsnh-0-126.thumb.png.e5cf646c82fb9ef132619ca00366b1e1.pnggfsnh-0-120.thumb.png.7b8257177f1aa034ad31f6812375f327.pngUN120-21.thumb.GIF.59e628a05a374fc178838f6f2d22300e.GIF

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

UW144-21.GIF?07-17

Okay, I will stop bombarding the forum after this one :laugh:.

UKMO +144 is oh so very poised. You can see the cold air to the east journeying over but that N. Atlantic trough is mighty strong and flat on the S side. It resembles the sort of mega-standoff charts that are usually seen in the further reaches of GFS runs :unsure2:.

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

Scandi rearing up to the Atlantic and saying no as colder uppers move under the block

Edited by winterof79
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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

UKMO at 144 is close to brilliant.

1717E8A3-8090-4C97-93B9-A01357D573C6.thumb.gif.cb802d3e106583a35f4fb6c3dbac06d5.gif

Yes, just need the High shifted 2 or 3 hundred miles West, which is possible at 6 days range. 

Edited by mountain shadow
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

UKMO at 144 is close to brilliant.

1717E8A3-8090-4C97-93B9-A01357D573C6.thumb.gif.cb802d3e106583a35f4fb6c3dbac06d5.gif

Has to be said the UKMO has been incredibly consistent over recent days.... what is yet unknown is has it been consistently right or wrong..... TBC

Yes very good the block is extending west.

And that cold pool is also moving from the east. It’s funny when you first look between T120and T144hrs it looks like it’s gone a bit east but on closer view you can see the pressure expanding further west .

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
4 minutes ago, doctor32 said:

 

Very confused here guys?

Compared to what it was showing this morning the high is under attack from NE a lot more. Still good just not as good as it was earlier hence the tern 'downgrade'.

0zModele UKMO - Carte prévisions  Archives

12z Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

Timings are a bit off but there are still differences. The 0z had straight easterly across much of europe, 12z looks a bit sloppy.

Edited by SN0WM4N
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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
1 minute ago, doctor32 said:

 

Very confused here guys?

It's what make this forum so brilliant, you just gotta laugh :rofl:

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