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Model output discussion - into 2018


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
14 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Maybe it will evolve into snow zonality...

along the lines of the GFS...

h850t850eu.thumb.png.8aa55c5bb4091fbc7a1d3af74cffd7fd.png

prectypeuktopo.thumb.png.dc630f653720232b72168c568186e30d.png

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
51 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

A good post based on reasoning of which You couldn’t argue based on the information that you present.

There is however the small matter of ‘human intervention & forecasting’ involved here as well as experience. That’s the difference between someone who chooses to solely rely on what a model says V someone who blends what’s a model says with ‘experience’ of said models & when they perform poorly, so whilst the data you have forms your opionion - all it does is reinforce mine which is model output + blend of experience.

So let’s be clear from Day 1 I think both me ( & TEITS - when he joined the party ) have forecast a ‘decent’ continental Easterly to reach the UK -circa -6 850 or below - The timeline which as with most cold spells has slightly elongated due to model progression ( haven’t got time to explain now ) is still due Thurs / Fri.

Let’s not forget all the ‘teleconnection’ crew decided it wasn’t going to happen - based on reduced angular momentum etc leaving just one or 2 going against the whole model suite.

we now find just 2 days later the same model suites following just 1 model - The UKMO- which has forecast pretty much the scenario suggested from day 1 just spread over 1/2 more days.

People seem to forget how bad the GFS & ECM have been in the last 2 days - here a typical incidence

ECM last 3 00z 168>144 & today’s 120

A0960A58-4C48-4386-9A86-8A5109EEDD08.thumb.png.ba809db6c12d958df86989eb4111336b.png34DA19EB-7D9F-48AD-856F-1E40D116B2F7.thumb.png.b53636ba4451dc80f462c9fffbcbacfc.pngE83DFF19-0F1C-42F0-8588-B221625A35E1.thumb.png.403d9af725cc1d31793340c060f70f82.png

Its Crystal clear the model has moved to the forecast scenario -

Now examine the Debilt ENs

6D424E07-0622-4A4A-8873-7A596670EF48.thumb.png.858f269318f95b751d3ab12e694fb61f.png825DBC14-00C8-48E8-BD6B-0F2FCD607B9A.thumb.png.a60d4338c6345b2c74ad43b94f16ed4b.png94248903-E726-4707-BEAF-AAADBBB335CB.thumb.png.ebf1a730c477204254acd99f01b7b7ed.png

same vein - No cold - some cold then hang in a minute - lots of cold.

No point in posting the GFS as it’s still a day behind.

 

So great argument - but your data is flawed & changing in favour of cold. 

My current thoughts hold Easterly / Southeasterly in situ at day 6-7 with a high potential of undercut not currently shown in the models.

Best

s

PS ***everyone***

ask yourself 1 question

* Why the Met office with every MOGREPs / ECM run / ENS suite available decide not to modify the T84 Fax chart away from the UKMO 12z raw data-

answer: because they have confidence it will be correct— 

 

A great graphical/in depth explanation-SM.

i'd side with every part of the post.

And i have purposely, refrained from comment atm due to the conflicting signal.

Although as-again, things gaing momentum..via easterly incursion.

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire

Model discussion please guys, there are other threads to discuss Met Office forecasts and current conditions.

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

The weather for the week ahead on the BBC says  "less cold" by the end of the week with the Atlantic winning out.

Zero sign of a cold Easterly.

Just offering this along side the model output as to how Exeter are thinking. 

Edited by mountain shadow
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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
1 hour ago, johnholmes said:

The fact is the UKMO/ECM are effectively trying to hold back the tide. These models I believe use historical weather patterns and of course our norm is movement W-E. So this is why the models the models really struggle. I believe the UKMO struggles less because the way it has been programmed.

Sorry TEITS that is not true. ALL models are given the basic data at the start and then run to the end of their period with nothing added, certainly no historical nor any other that I know of. This is for synoptic models NOT climat models. You can see what goes in if you visit the Met O main site.

I’d like to think the UKMO is more clued up but that’s my simple way of thinking 

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7 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

The weather for the week ahead on the BBC says  "less cold" by the end of the week with the Atlantic winning out.

Zero sign of a cold Easterly.

Just offering this along side the model output as to how Exeter are thinking. 

That’s not the met office

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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
7 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

The weather for the week ahead on the BBC says  "less cold" by the end of the week with the Atlantic winning out.

Zero sign of a cold Easterly.

Just offering this along side the model output as to how Exeter are thinking. 

Which is massively different to their latest output . I wonder if they are playing catch up if they have caught up and moved in front 

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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
Just now, Steve Murr said:

That’s not the met office

the BBC get their forecasts from the Met office.

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Posted
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Hot n cold
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
2 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Which is massively different to their latest output . I wonder if they are playing catch up if they have caught up and moved in front 

Who knows ! They're always confusing on the telly. That countryfile one will probably be different too. Then tomorrow lol

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Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
1 hour ago, johnholmes said:

Sorry TEITS that is not true. ALL models are given the basic data at the start and then run to the end of their period with nothing added, certainly no historical nor any other that I know of. This is for synoptic models NOT climat models. You can see what goes in if you visit the Met O main site.

The model runs are fed into a product called DECIDER which has historical weather regimes in it. Ian Fergusson mentioned this a couple of winters ago and there was a video of how it worked. 

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
50 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

"Perhaps..."

"Maybe..."

I agree with you, sounds quite interesting tbf, just not the type of interesting people are looking for.  Just wondering about the bit that does sound boring. How can it be colder and dryer in the SE, I guess a corner of the high looks to be hanging on.

Edited by alexisj9
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Posted
  • Location: nottingham
  • Weather Preferences: ice days,and snow,snow,snow...
  • Location: nottingham
8 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

The weather for the week ahead on the BBC says  "less cold" by the end of the week with the Atlantic winning out.

Zero sign of a cold Easterly.

Just offering this along side the model output as to how Exeter are thinking. 

They didn't really show the Atlantic winning out, more of a very slow encroachment ..

That's totally along the lines of the ukmo, as this 144 chart illustrates..

But there are definate possibilities of a beasterly from there...!  

image.thumb.gif.0f8e69f811cf36142ac686757c672a0e.gif

 

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6 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

The model runs are fed into a product called DECIDER which has historical weather regimes in it. Ian Fergusson mentioned this a couple of winters ago and there was a video of how it worked. 

Yes & a large %age of that is climatology hence why the models always bias to the east 

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Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire

Can we stick to discussing the models and not the MetOffice forecast. There is another thread elsewhere for that purpose:

Thanks

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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Yes & a large %age of that is climatology hence why the models always bias to the east 

i thought as @johnholmes said, the models have no climatology built in, with the DECIDER 'adding' climatology in its calculations?

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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
Just now, Steve Murr said:

Read Gael force post

i did. john holmes said the models have no built in climatology, you said they did. gael force highlighted the DECIDER model as adding the climatology into the mix. i remember reading this some time ago.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
16 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Yes & a large %age of that is climatology hence why the models always bias to the east 

In other words, it's the weather that is biased, and the models are trying to conform to what is in effect realty? Much like a human would if placed in the same position...

We, on the other hand, are constantly trying to force reality to comply with our own private wish-lists...?:D

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
11 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

In other words, it's the weather that is biased, and the models are trying to conform to what is in effect realty? Much like a human would if placed in the same position...

We, on the other hand, are constantly trying to force reality to comply with our own private wish-lists...?:D

I just want a decent easterly with snow showers and severe frosts (not too much to ask is it?) ..but the models are not showing that at the moment.. Still, the ukmo continues to dangle a carrot at T+144 hours.:)

UKMOPNH00_144_1.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
56 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

The model runs are fed into a product called DECIDER which has historical weather regimes in it. Ian Fergusson mentioned this a couple of winters ago and there was a video of how it worked. 

Iirc that was glosea5, I was trying to find that presentation again but couldn't maybe someone else has a link

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
1 hour ago, Gael_Force said:

The model runs are fed into a product called DECIDER which has historical weather regimes in it. Ian Fergusson mentioned this a couple of winters ago and there was a video of how it worked. 

Thank you for that, my inside knowledge of UK Met is much less that it was, no link now into the main forecast room. I found this from Googling, It's a Met O link. It leaves me still thinking that the daily synoptic outputs from UK Met are still not fed this list possible scenarios. To me it seems to suggest that the 6-15 day and further out into seasonal do? The basis is what in the old days we called empirical data, a bit like the forecast tool I have posted in here quite some time ago about the probability of the Azores high migrating to Scandinavia. There are a fair number of other examples we used. Anyway thank you and here is the link (TEITS you might be interested in this?)

I give up trying to show the correct link, anyone interested, and mods especially, its in the shorter range Met O part of the forum.

Edited by johnholmes
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