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Model output discussion - into 2018


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms in the summer, frost fog & snow in winter.
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I also predicted it would fail, and I'm predicting any potent Easterly much before months end will also fail

How about you back up your predictions with some chart analysis as to why any easterly will fail before months end as without them as far as I'm concerned you could be looking at tea leafs to come to the conclusion you have! 

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

The fact is the UKMO/ECM are effectively trying to hold back the tide. These models I believe use historical weather patterns and of course our norm is movement W-E. So this is why the models the models really struggle. I believe the UKMO struggles less because the way it has been programmed.

Sorry TEITS that is not true. ALL models are given the basic data at the start and then run to the end of their period with nothing added, certainly no historical nor any other that I know of. This is for synoptic models NOT climat models. You can see what goes in if you visit the Met O main site.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
47 minutes ago, Danny* said:

Perhaps we should rename the thread "Wishing Well" because some people are trying to wish this thing into existence. I'm in the "miserable git" club at the moment. And here's my reasoning.

Clusters.thumb.png.21c5bce15e7e49752ef1a4b9127dcc16.png

The ECM clusters show little support for a sustained, cold Easterly. In fact, there's such a large range of solutions that it's difficult to pin-point any particular outcome but the EPS seemingly leaning more towards low pressure dominated (though some more zonal than others) rather than a cold, convective Easterly.

ECM mean isn't too bad, but more cold zonal than Easterly.

need to be careful re the under estimation of the block though

Looking at the clusters for next Sunday and comparing them with output from three days ago shows the emphasis has changed a little to show the trough not getting as far north or east. Make the same adjustment on those day ten cluster charts you posted and they may look a little more interesting. I really don't see a beaterly making it to here but I could be talked into the pattern shown in today's ec op being 300 miles further south and a hundred and fifty west ........ wouldn't be absurd to see that in the day 7 clusters today, would it?

IMG_0747.thumb.PNG.9e2c0358c00bbcb9b77b032b98399c89.PNG IMG_0748.thumb.PNG.e97b823518d0719684e4f5ef5c337877.PNG

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
10 minutes ago, Smartie said:

How about you back up your predictions with some chart analysis as to why any easterly will fail before months end as without them as far as I'm concerned you could be looking at tea leafs to come to the conclusion you have! 

Look at the ensembles but I think you know that anyway but are just posting to get popularity - hope you will scrutinise those who are predicting the block to be even further West than the UKMO /ECM just as much as those that think the GFS will be correct and it will be further East than the UKMO / ECM combo.

EDIT : re tea leaves - there have been stacks of Easterlies predicted by people on here since 2013 (including myself) and do you know how many of those have come true in terms of delivering wintry weather to the UK since 2013 - A big fat 0 - you need to scrutinise the wrong forecasts that are not backed up with evidence - not the correct ones.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Location: Hertfordshire

Well can the ukmo go the extra mile. At t144 the chart screams easterly for the UK with energy undercutting as the CAA pushes west from Europe.

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

The only problem being that this is a t144 chart and not the most reliable time frame for the ukmo model. Also although the gfs is slowly realigning towards the ukmo at the time frames we are looking at ( t96-t144 or 4 to six days) you really would expect the gfs to be fully on board. This tells me that  because of the disagreement between the models no one model has it right and unfortunately when it comes to cold for the UK there is little room for error. The UK model builds a robust block over northern Scandinavia the gfs not so hence shortwaves aplenty.

That aside I am rooting for the UKMO model to be correct because we are just a hairs breath away from what could be a very cold spell of weather if the energy to the west disrupts and goes under the block to the east also the ukmo and the ecm are virtually on the same page out to t144.

 

Edited by comet
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Well i hope steve murr is right !!

But the metoffice are not reading the script.. :(

todays update is dreadful!!

Transient snow for scottish mountains fri/sat then basically hello Atlantic ..

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well i hope steve murr is right !!

But the metoffice are not reading the script.. :(

todays update is dreadful!!

Transient snow for scottish mountains fri/sat then basically hello Atlantic ..

The text in bold made me laugh when I read it.

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Posted
  • Location: Norway
  • Location: Norway

if the block holds at NNE area then we could see the PV cold go south with an great opportunity for easterlies (with wrong sertting there is an south-air-transport)

Exciting days to watch

8.png

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos

"Failed Easterly"?!

We have a breezy Easterly wind here in the balmy south west today and it is 3c, but wind chill makes it feel more like 0c in the shade.:)

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
25 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

The fact is the UKMO/ECM are effectively trying to hold back the tide. These models I believe use historical weather patterns and of course our norm is movement W-E. So this is why the models the models really struggle. I believe the UKMO struggles less because the way it has been programmed.

Sorry TEITS that is not true. ALL models are given the basic data at the start and then run to the end of their period with nothing added, certainly no historical nor any other that I know of. This is for synoptic models NOT climat models. You can see what goes in if you visit the Met O main site.

All models must be programmed differently though otherwise they would come out with the same output and same verification.

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
1 minute ago, Bristle boy said:

"Failed Easterly"?!

We have a breezy Easterly wind here in the balmy south west today and it is 3c, but wind chill makes it feel more like 0c in the shade.:)

But 3C is at least 3C too high for ice forming, so no ice skating, most coldies don't really like cold but do like some of the fun that comes with cold like ice and snow and the fact you don't get soaked and end up feeling miserable and cold. 

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

99% of the time the fax is identical to UKMO. I always wonder what the point in it is to be honest. Let’s see where we are at the end of the week. If we are in a proper Easterly with widespread uppers below -6c I will be shocked. I would say less than 10% chance. 

Edited by Tim Bland
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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent
13 minutes ago, karyo said:

The text in bold made me laugh when I read it.

I'm not very keen on this easterly I no some are showing in some output surely if there was easterly with cold the meto would be all over it..

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Notice the idea of colder weather still exists for the s and e which is obviously an easterly of some description..so although it's a low probability, it can't be ruled out and it could still grow into something bigger and better!:)..ukmo  00z springs to mind!!

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast

@Tamara,

 

That aam plot comes from somewhere on the University of Albany website? If some other figures yesterday also had some weirdness happening, seems like some data was missing making the graphs look extreme 

Edited by ArHu3
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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
13 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

A good post based on reasoning of which You couldn’t argue based on the information that you present.

There is however the small matter of ‘human intervention & forecasting’ involved here as well as experience. That’s the difference between someone who chooses to solely rely on what a model says V someone who blends what’s a model says with ‘experience’ of said models & when they perform poorly, so whilst the data you have forms your opionion - all it does is reinforce mine which is model output + blend of experience.

So let’s be clear from Day 1 I think both me ( & TEITS - when he joined the party ) have forecast a ‘decent’ continental Easterly to reach the UK -circa -6 850 or below - The timeline which as with most cold spells has slightly elongated due to model progression ( haven’t got time to explain now ) is still due Thurs / Fri.

Let’s not forget all the ‘teleconnection’ crew decided it wasn’t going to happen - based on reduced angular momentum etc leaving just one or 2 going against the whole model suite.

we now find just 2 days later the same model suites following just 1 model - The UKMO- which has forecast pretty much the scenario suggested from day 1 just spread over 1/2 more days.

People seem to forget how bad the GFS & ECM have been in the last 2 days - here a typical incidence

ECM last 3 00z 168>144 & today’s 120

A0960A58-4C48-4386-9A86-8A5109EEDD08.thumb.png.ba809db6c12d958df86989eb4111336b.png34DA19EB-7D9F-48AD-856F-1E40D116B2F7.thumb.png.b53636ba4451dc80f462c9fffbcbacfc.pngE83DFF19-0F1C-42F0-8588-B221625A35E1.thumb.png.403d9af725cc1d31793340c060f70f82.png

Its Crystal clear the model has moved to the forecast scenario -

Now examine the Debilt ENs

6D424E07-0622-4A4A-8873-7A596670EF48.thumb.png.858f269318f95b751d3ab12e694fb61f.png825DBC14-00C8-48E8-BD6B-0F2FCD607B9A.thumb.png.a60d4338c6345b2c74ad43b94f16ed4b.png94248903-E726-4707-BEAF-AAADBBB335CB.thumb.png.ebf1a730c477204254acd99f01b7b7ed.png

same vein - No cold - some cold then hang in a minute - lots of cold.

No point in posting the GFS as it’s still a day behind.

 

So great argument - but your data is flawed & changing in favour of cold. 

My current thoughts hold Easterly / Southeasterly in situ at day 6-7 with a high potential of undercut not currently shown in the models.

Best

s

PS ***everyone***

ask yourself 1 question

* Why the Met office with every MOGREPs / ECM run / ENS suite available decide not to modify the T84 Fax chart away from the UKMO 12z raw data-

answer: because they have confidence it will be correct— 

 

as it stands at the moment, i'm with @Danny* on this one. nothing in the models is showing a sustained easterly. you mention "human intervention and forecasting" yet the Met office forecast reflects the scenario danny has described. 

i really hope you are right but i think if we do get the easterly it will be short lived and mostly dry. i do however think that it will evolve into cold zonality with a southerly tracking jet allowing low pressure systems to drag very cold air over us on their northern flanks. (a variation on the 'undercut' theme) very cold north-westerlies and northerlies could be the order of the day, bringing large amounts of snow to many (though least likely the south-east corner:(

snow is snow whatever direction it comes from and even a couple of days worth is a far cry from previous years.

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2 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

as it stands at the moment, i'm with @Danny* on this one. nothing in the models is showing a sustained easterly. you mention "human intervention and forecasting" yet the Met office forecast reflects the scenario danny has described. 

i really hope you are right but i think if we do get the easterly it will be short lived and mostly dry. i do however think that it will evolve into cold zonality with a southerly tracking jet allowing low pressure systems to drag very cold air over us on their northern flanks. (a variation on the 'undercut' theme) very cold north-westerlies and northerlies could be the order of the day, bringing large amounts of snow to many (though least likely the south-east corner:(

snow is snow whatever direction it comes from and even a couple of days worth is a far cry from previous years.

Maybe it will evolve into snow zonality...

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