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Model output discussion - into 2018


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Anyway- while most of us discuss the euro models 6z gfs is rolling out and to be fair its not in the slightest bit interested in any block over scandy as per EC/UKMO so this run will be interesting ..

It's only at T66 - how can you see any obvious differences ?????

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

Gfs is a small step forward at t72/78 with regards to the block.

Edited by That ECM
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

It's only at T66 - how can you see any obvious differences ?????

Looks a better run to me - further west wih cold uppers making better inroads this time.

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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
Just now, bluearmy said:

Absolutely impossible to have a strong opinion based on evidence and experience.  nothing has changed over the past day really - the latest eps are indicating, for the first time I can recall on this evolution, that the scandi ridge has not sharpened as time has ticked down bit this is around Day 10/12 so not so relevant. If you place your confidence is the ecm/ukmo idea of getting the cold uppers heading west then the ecm solution of Atlantic trough meeting beast and phasing the low heights makes some sense but where does that happen? 

peeps may not want to hear it but the only sensible option re week 2 is to watch for a few days and wait to see where this goes.

Very realistic appraisal Blue. Unfortunately we live in a gotta have  it today society but Amazon don't deliver Convective Easterly outcomes so it really is a question of just wait and see.

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

There's no denying that this is a better run out to 114 vs the 0z.  Definite movement towards the UKMO with heights better aligned....getting interesting!

0z  gfsnh-0-120.png?0 6z gfsnh-0-114.png?6 UKMO Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

The GFS is still having absolutely none of it though, and given what happened just a couple of days ago I'm not letting myself get excited.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

6z beginning to look more euro-ish -

Apart from a brief Atlantic incursion the azores high ridges north and blocks off the lows in the Atlantic..probably cold again by thurs :)

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
16 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

sorry i meant gfs-not the 6z :)

Gfs backtracking big style here and at a very early time frame aswell!!12z could maybe complete the move to euros!!

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, karyo said:

The ridge from the Azores high extends north towards Norway. This looks good so far.

I agree K :)

The dew point /2m plots shows the UK very cold by thur ..

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
Just now, northwestsnow said:

I agree K :)

The dew point /2m plots shows the UK very cold by thur ..

Yes, no wind under the high pressure is great for frosty weather.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
1 minute ago, karyo said:

Yes, no wind under the high pressure is great for frosty weather.

Depends on cloud amounts trapped under the ridge / high:)

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Posted
  • Location: Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall obviously.
  • Location: Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
29 minutes ago, grca said:

Maybe Catacol, GP or Tamara might know the real answer here, could be faulty data? But where has the AAM reading gone to on this latest plot over night?

image.thumb.png.741d754da9278d82a3a48a66f34d93af.png

We are certainly in a -AAM environment, potentially could be off the charts kind of -AAM. Certainly plausible, if it verifies on WDT and tomorrow's GFS analysis, for a deep -AAM Phase. But until we get that data, I am holding my horses before making that assumption.

 

Edited by Snowy Hibbo
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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
10 minutes ago, Danny* said:

The GFS is still having absolutely none of it though, and given what happened just a couple of days ago I'm not letting myself get excited.

Wow, talk about speaking too soon. (though this was about the past few runs, I hadn't looked at the 6z when I posted)

Massive backtrack from the GFS on the 6z, much larger block and the Atlantic being held way back.

Edited by Danny*
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Gfs different to the east so no CAA 

It changes by day 6 compared to its 00z run but we know this model reverts in small steps so it could look quite different by the morning 

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Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast

More often than not we never get a nailed easterly, one that we go straight into it! There's nearly always model changes downgrades and upgrades, then about a week to two week later it arrives :D

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
4 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

LOL

So the GFS 06Z In last few posts go from a better run to GFS Having none of it,Good luck to all the newbies trying to get a grip of things 

C.S

Indeed, didn't quite understand the 'Having none of it' post.  This is an improvement if cold is your thing.  Compare the Scandi high at 144 vs the same time on the previous run. Much more robust

6z gfsnh-0-150.png?6 0z gfsnh-0-156.png?0

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
2 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Trust me the 06Z is swinging towards the Euros and is a much better run. Im afraid some are too eager to post.

Indeed Teits

No denying the 06z is swinging towards the Euros.Just wish that some would let the run develop before posting.

C.S

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Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
7 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

LOL

So the GFS 06Z In last few posts go from a better run to GFS Having none of it,Good luck to all the newbies trying to get a grip of things 

C.S

You miss read NWS post. He was referring to the GFS in general not the 06z. 

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey

Can someone find me an archive chart similar to this morning's UKMO - with low pressure over Greece and the high over Finland?  I just don't remember that really happening - to me it either ends up several hundred miles further east, or more likely (given the trends) the whole pattern should be shifted several hundred miles West, with the low pressure over Italy and the centre of the high Sweden/Norway.

UMKO is leading the way probably, but still too progressive at 144h.

 

EDIT, the closest I can find is Jan 31st 2009

 

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

 

Jan 31st 2009

archivesnh-2009-1-31-0-0.png

 

Edited by beng
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
6 hours ago, metaltron said:

My impression has been that the UKMO has been awful this winter, especially at T144, but hopefully its right today! Anybody remember the Mid-Atlantic cut off low drama last January when the UKMO trumped the GFS/ECM, to coldies' despair, after Knocker said the UKMO looked the more likely evolution? So it is possible that the UKMO can be right against the ECM/GFS, but I think everybody would like to see the ECM agreeing later on.

I'm still not sold on us getting an easterly but statistically speaking the UKMO is over the course of a year, season or whatever a far superior model to GFS. The gap has reduced since 2014 though when the UKMO was just about the worlds best with the GFS getting a few updates since (not sure what the Met is planning for the model).

51 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended has a band of heavy rain stretching from Scotland right down to North Africa

ukm2.2018011400_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.9e48fc6034affaf6d4819a1a715fae70.png

 

The two keys on that chart are firstly that we can see from the contour line that the easterly has made it to south east England (though probably not too strongly) but more importantly that the kink in that front is over the channel suggesting that a secondary low is trying to form and may be south enough to try undercut. 

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