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Model output discussion - into 2018


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Just now, Dennis said:

i see thnx

89.png

Much better ?

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
18 minutes ago, Dennis said:

im sry i do not see at the moment a good sign of a blocking.......no true easterly later this week

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I wouldn’t bother looking at NMM that’s used within very short range it is quite efffective in ‘micro’ elements of forecasting from where the snow boundary is for instance from a channel low. 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

EU snow depth charts show some decent accumulations in NW Britain but are not great for everyone else really.

Basically we are looking to the north west for colder uppers- there is no easterly really this morning.

Fascinating model watching tho- could do with GFS changing its tune but in some ways it ends up very similar to EC by day 10...

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Norway
  • Location: Norway
4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EU snow depth charts show some decent accumulations in NW Britain but are not great for everyone else really.

Basically we are looking to the north west for colder uppers- there is no easterly really this morning.

for coming week not much to expect snow - better rounds we start a next weekend

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Edited by Dennis
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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EU snow depth charts show some decent accumulations in NW Britain but are not great for everyone else really.

Basically we are looking to the north west for colder uppers- there is no easterly really this morning.

Technically, no we’d be mightily unlucky to miss out on v cold uppers on UKMO. ECM very almost does it albeit it takes more time and doesn’t quite get there. Cold easterlies definitely not off table. 

325CEA24-F831-44F4-A6BD-5185F9FED093.thumb.gif.78a6fec219126fcf7d11d52f3c68bd16.gif

Edited by Daniel*
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Technically, no we’d be mightily unlucky to miss out on v cold uppers on UKMO. ECM very almost does it albeit it takes more time and doesn’t quite get there. Cold easterlies definitely not off table. 

325CEA24-F831-44F4-A6BD-5185F9FED093.thumb.gif.78a6fec219126fcf7d11d52f3c68bd16.gif

Could do with that scandy block being a little further west- small changes will have huge ramifications -

Exeters update will be interesting!! Hope its an improvement on yesterdays :)

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
17 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

ECM ENS - I wonder if any will get that beast to our shores

It’s the least we deserve will be interesting to see what’s wheeled out.. 8) lets make a pact and offer knocker for sacrifice :D for blasphemy and imprudence to the cold gang. :crazy:

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Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Could do with that scandy block being a little further west- small changes will have huge ramifications -

Exeters update will be interesting!! Hope its an improvement on yesterdays :)

The issue is the vortex over Greenland....now if we can get a blend of ukmo at 144 with gfs at 180.......

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Could do with that scandy block being a little further west- small changes will have huge ramifications -

Exeters update will be interesting!! Hope its an improvement on yesterdays :)

Agreed. As they say bigger isn’t always better it’s more liable to sinking..

DE20BEC5-6670-4975-8D59-A3D53DEE6498.thumb.gif.f9204110ca8143aaa557af27005653b3.gif5E864257-DAEA-4DC9-9A87-EE709ACFCE31.thumb.png.7e0c411665eddb703b48fb90a71b7eb0.png

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
13 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Well ECM pushes through a little bit we all now how progressive it’s been in the last 48 hours

to prove that I have the last 3 Debilt ENS saves T2M - look for a significant drop today @9am!!

UKMO top of the charts today - still-

eagerly awaiting the 168 FWIW.

edit UKMOWOW also has shortwave energy dropping SE @144...

This one? Wrong chart the second one? Or the third chart just to the sw of us?:D

Edit this one SM? Can't get rid off the other two charts.

 

IMG_0327.PNG

 

 

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Edited by That ECM
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Agreed. As they say bigger isn’t always better it’s more liable to sinking..

DE20BEC5-6670-4975-8D59-A3D53DEE6498.thumb.gif.f9204110ca8143aaa557af27005653b3.gif5E864257-DAEA-4DC9-9A87-EE709ACFCE31.thumb.png.7e0c411665eddb703b48fb90a71b7eb0.png

Excellent charts Daniel- you can see clearly ukmo is further west with the block (only slightly) , but that could make a huge difference with the Atlantic -

FWIW i think the ukmo run would be better for easterly chances at 168 :)

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Great to see the ukmo is persisting with this, the easterly dream is still alive and kicking!:):cold-emoji:..the drama goes on..the plot thickens etc:D

UKMOPEU00_144_1.png

UKMOPNH00_144_1.png

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Excellent charts Daniel- you can see clearly ukmo is further west with the block (only slightly) , but that could make a huge difference with the Atlantic -

FWIW i think the ukmo run would be better for easterly chances at 168 :)

Yes, I’d like to encourage more of you to use ‘Cartes Europe (LCC)’ provides a broader canvas. You can gather much more ‘information’, I’d like to also reaffirm the talk of sacrifice is banter.

https://www.meteociel.com/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=1&map=8&type=0&archive=0

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

EVM mean at 96 looks good to me 

53402938-6E70-4044-B534-58AFB05944C8.png

Edited by Ali1977
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Posted
  • Location: Norway
  • Location: Norway
6 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Great to see the ukmo is persisting with this, the easterly dream is still alive and kicking!:):cold-emoji:..the drama goes on..the plot thickens etc:D

UKMOPEU00_144_1.png

UKMOPNH00_144_1.png

850Hpa 

09.gif

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Well the ECMWF 00z ens mean looks pretty good at t120/t144 to me. We are on the verge of very cold easterly winds here. Given the recent UKMO operational runs I wouldn’t be at all surprised whether one of the next few runs delivers the beast that has been waiting in the wings for many years now.

054C1562-6264-4DD6-A8C3-532C1E451AB5.gif

93E2E36B-8B73-4C14-BC22-49E59DD18287.gif

34EB98F5-240F-456A-B079-888263A50855.png

Edited by Guest
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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well to me the EC mean shows quite a cold north westerly signal longer term- could be very exciting for those in NW Britan esp :)

EDH1-240.GIF?07-12

Another cold rain / slush fest for us in the south.

Personally going for the stuck in no man's solution. Think this could resemble feb 12' where Europe went in the freezer but we were 300 miles too far west!

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

That’s a very good mean at day 5 in all honesty, easterly back for eastern half of the country. I look at that and I wonder whether ECM is being too progressive in shunting block east, I think it will put on more of a fight. 

93B68A4F-B801-4773-BF4F-5DDE849918DB.thumb.png.d60e1b75a352c9480d07db226e6ad8a7.png 24 hours later.. 61C1093A-24CD-4B27-94ED-B980D433C1BA.thumb.png.226a453e0c61f9d96469baa46ab04864.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.

Just as I depart for another Christmas celebration...

Control better than the Op and brings -8/-10 uppers to the north sea, very close to England. Then colder air also moves in from the west. Meaning that even if an easterly doesn't deliver, the atlantic would.

The mean still has the atlantic winning out, which looks no bad thing.

Edited by jvenge
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