Model output discussion - into 2018

[Captain Shortwave]

17 minutes ago, ShortWaveHell said:

As a beginner I struggle with these differences ! One is going to have a very wrong evolution  How? Who? What? When? Why?  

I think the first thing to stress here is that even if the ECM/UKMO are right there is still no guarantee of frigid air hitting the UK, but the first stage is beginning to look like a real possibility.

Lets compare the ECM and GFS at day 4

The ECM has the WAA from the ridge over Europe cutting off with some very cold and dense air to the east of this associated with the trough over Russia, you can already see this beginning to erode the mid latitude component of the ridge based over the Middle east in this case. This allows the cold air over Russia to begin to march east under the cut off high over Scandinavia,

The GFS for the same time

You can see we still have a ridge well established and a wall of warm air which is not being undercut which results in the huge divergence later on with the GFS not getting any real cold air westwards at all with the ridge tending to hold in situ or being slowly pushed east by the Atlantic. Given though we have the ECM/UKMO in agreement on this element then there is a good chance of this verifying.

As I said before, at least we are in the game now potential for some proper winter cold, but we still need to get the cold air in from the east, the Atlantic could still push far enough east to gain control or the cold air could stall to our east with the cold dense air forming its own surface low which is a common reason why beasterlies often fail, but considering the output recently, there is a lot more interest in this set up now.

This morning, the ECM is just too far east but there could be some spectacular charts from a northern hemisphere point of view with that high pushing towards the Pole with a similar high developing on the Pacific side.

Edited January 7, 2018 by Captain Shortwave

[SMU]

At 168 anything that falls in England will be snow.

[Daniel*]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Not so sure the Atlantic is playing ball here-

Will let the experts decipher whats going on at 168..

I’m a bit iffy too it looks like the coldest air is going to be scooped away from us to German / Holland border unless we have atlantic play ball that could be spectacular.

[That ECM]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Not so sure the Atlantic is playing ball here-

Will let the experts decipher whats going on at 168..

What's going on is frigid air is on route to us BUT is it? Or is it winding us up and will let us down? Great viewing and very exciting, 

[Dennis]

im sry i do not see at the moment a good sign of a blocking.......no true easterly later this week

[Ali1977]

Another step better on the 12zs and we could be close to something very very cold - it’s a bigger step than NEIL Armstrong’s however.

[Daniel*]

T192 surely that’s going under SE I sense a BOOM run unfolding here.

Edit: that view distorted what it really looks like ignore...

Edited January 7, 2018 by Daniel*

[Dennis]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

Another step better on the 12zs and we could be close to something very very cold - it’s a bigger step than NEIL Armstrong’s however.

it will be with another setup mid Jan (PV forming better now for west Europe) so time will tell

[Ali1977]

3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

T192 surely that’s going under SE I sense a BOOM run unfolding here.

As Steve M mentioned, this would be a snow event already - especially central and East UK. 

Edit - as mentioned below last nights run - however I meant this mornings 

Edited January 7, 2018 by Ali1977

[The Eagle]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

T192 surely that’s going under SE I sense a BOOM run unfolding here.

That's the 12 pm run

[The Eagle]

ECM fail. It was doing so well but drops back in the world's best model list for today.

[northwestsnow]

Ec blows the block away by day 9??

[Daniel*]

1 minute ago, The Eagle said:

That's the 12 pm run

5 hours of sleep does that.  

Hard to make out what’s going to happen there’d be snow on that what’s going to win out cold PM flow or polar continental? My bet latter with block too east and yep confirmed..

[northwestsnow]

ACTUALLY ON THE 850 DEVIATION PLOT EC 216 IS COLD!!

 

Could be very snowy!!

still showing yesterdays but believe me the UK is below average temp wise 192 - 216..

Edited January 7, 2018 by northwestsnow

[Daniel*]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Ec blows the block away by day 9??

Looks a bit progressive to me! 

[carinthian]

Good morning. Well, well, this mornings UKMO and ECM almost identical. From a cold prospective these are the charts we want to see. Looks like them against GFS  again shows a lack  lust block to the east. Both main European models build a robust high of 1040mb over South Finland by 144t  with cold air advection into European Plain in its Southern Flank. Looks like battle zone over Western Britain next weekend on the cards as different flows mix/clash. Still the interest remain on Thursday of how that  upper colder pool or low  develops over South West Britain ( shown on latest fax below ) Ideally , best results for lower heights to sink into Euroland and be more extensive and importantly hold. Interesting stage of the winter now for lovers of cold.  Could be a interesting day chart viewing.Must get out in the fresh air !

 C

Edited January 7, 2018 by carinthian

[Daniel*]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

ACTUALLY ON THE 850 DEVIATION PLOT EC 216 IS COLD!!

Could be very snowy!!

That’s the 00z of yesterday for a moment I thought you were colour blind.  

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

ACTUALLY ON THE 850 DEVIATION PLOT EC 216 IS COLD!!

Could be very snowy!!

Is that not warmer than average ?

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Daniel* said:

Looks a bit progressive to me! 

But as posted above check wz temp deviation plot on EC 216- could be very very snowy- will check the snow depth charts soon

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Daniel* said:

That’s the 00z of yesterday for a moment I thought you were colour blind.  

sorry mate i cant post the updated one it keeps going back to yesterday for some reason.

Its below average ive looked..

[Dennis]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

ACTUALLY ON THE 850 DEVIATION PLOT EC 216 IS COLD!!

Could be very snowy!!

its a real battle for west Europe ; i think PV is a little stronger but an easterly could growing better later again

[Dennis]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Is that not warmer than average ?

yes 

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Dennis said:

yes 

sorry dennis, that was yesterdays- 216 this morning looks cold.

[Dennis]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

sorry dennis, that was yesterdays- 216 this morning looks cold.

i see thnx

[Ali1977]

ECM ENS - I wonder if any will get that beast to our shores

Edited January 7, 2018 by Ali1977