Model output discussion - into 2018

[CK1981]

14 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Yes it's very encouraging isn't it, hopefully more westward adjustments to come and we could be looking at a very wintry extended outlook..caution as always but it's got more interesting this evening.

Nail biting stuff, especially for us down in the south. I’ll be watching the forthcoming runs with much interest  

[Ali1977]

12 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM ensembles have had a torrid time this week trying nail down the boundary between the Atlantic trough / Continental high this Thursday. Back and forth!! Though actually quite consistent with the major features except that Atlantic trough is correcting progressively further south and east ( = the whole lot possibly going under?)

          

I'm kind of regretting calling a "fail" on the Scandi High based on a UKMO T120 chart yesterday - should have waited for T96 - maybe even T72!

I’d say the run on the 3rd looks best , that was the day it was all looking v good - however today’s is close and the low in the Atlantic looks pretty far south so could go under.

[joggs]

31 minutes ago, Jayces said:

I'm no expert on the models but for every hour past T0 the weather permutations increase exponentially and the what if scenarios become vastly different at day 10 compared to 5 but surely no matter how unlikely we think an outcome is what is modeled is a possibility if all the right blocks fall into place?

There are charts in the latest NWP showing what is being discussed, whether they come to fruition is up for debate but we won't know that until T240 gets to T0.

We just need to get lucky :-)

Yeah it can be frustrating on our little island but at least we get a wide variety of weather.

I hear what your saying,no problem.Its just that some seem to get carried away with their own agenda to hopefully come to a certain conclusion in which sometimes some of us just cannot see it in the models,hence leading people up the garden path.

Yes model output and discussion and output but with more realism needed for me imho.

And I'm a dead cert coldie.

Respect to all n all that.

[damianslaw]

Always important to look at the themes and trends shown by the models over intra-runs, rather than focusing on the detail of every run once you get past the 120 hr timeframe. What they are all in agreement is the amplification of the atlantic flow, with the jet stream wavy in pattern, and the azores high in no hurry to settle into its default winter position i.e. nosing into western/central europe as it has done since winter 12/13. This is putting the UK on the boundary line between cold and mild, with neither it feels gaining the upper hand - so far this winter that is, but we have alot of winter to go yet, and traditionally the coldest period of the year occurs from mid Jan - mid Feb, as the atlantic tends to lose its intensity.

Unlike recent winters - I am staying very open to changes in the models from one day to the next, just because this winter feels very different to the last 4 at least, with less likelihood of the zonal mild express train ruling the roost.

With this in mind, this evening's ECM could come off, just as GFS output might come off. UKMO has been performing well very recently, and if anything that model suggests colder air moving in quicker than ECM, with the atlantic held at bay. 

Next week looks a messy one for forecasting, with the UK sat between the battle lines between the continental high and the deep long wave atlantic trough, but eyes should be drawn to developments over the arctic profile and the position of the jet - signs heights may build to our north as all energy is put into the southern arm of the jetstream - this paves a way for undercutting of the heights and an easy path for some significant cold air to invade the UK from the NE - the ECM evolution, but the pattern could all be a little too far east, if the atlantic pushes its influence further to us as shown by the GFS.

[joggs]

24 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

You can take a look back at many classic Easterly and not all of them start from the get many take days to get before the colder uppers reach our shores but it's all worth it in the end.

Yes,I agree.But every time there's  a chase on for a easterly people have their own agendas on the conclusion,again I get that but some say this is going to happen and that's going to happen,for it not too.

New beginners must despair.

[Man With Beard]

19 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

The precipitation charts on weather.us make fascinating reading (not that they are likely to be right). The Eastern side of the UK is stuck under the Atlantic front for most of 4 days from Thursday to Monday, with plenty of rain. Then on Monday Tuesday it finally all turns to snow as the easterly kicks in.

sorry - correction above

Individual ECM ensembles at T240: About 30% have followed the op in pushing the Atlantic trough under the block and getting the UK on its northern side (including the control run). 70% still saying no.

Though not all of these 70% are mild - there's about as many runs with snow by T240 from a westerly source as there is snow from an easterly! (about 15% for each)

[feb1991blizzard]

FWIW Icon better already at 54 than previous run, WAA more S to N thus Scandi ridge further N and W.

[karlos1983]

Ok, I’ve just got home from taking the misses out for her birthday and seen this 

I left at page 145 and it’s at page 152 now, naughty ecm, dangling carrots, I’ve got 7 pages to read 

Ps amazing 

[Bartlett High]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Ok, I’ve just got home from taking the misses out for her birthday and seen this 

I left at page 145 and it’s at page 152 now, naughty ecm, dangling carrots, I’ve got 7 pages to read 

Ps amazing 

Not sure why people are drooling over charts 10 days from now which have no chance of verifying!

[CK1981]

7 minutes ago, bartlett high said:

Not sure why people are drooling over charts 10 days from now which have no chance of verifying!

It’s the trend, not specific charts. We could well end up with those outputs nearer the time, especially with musing from a few professionals. Watch this space!

Edited January 6, 2018 by CK1981

[bobbydog]

1 minute ago, bartlett high said:

Not sure why people are drooling over charts 10 days from now which have no chance of verifying!

well we could drool over pictures of naked models which we have no chance of 'verifying' but then it would be a very different forum altogether....

[joggs]

're the couple of posts above answer to BH.

Your correct but how many times have we been here at day 10 then then confusion ensues with people telling people to look for this and that and then this will happen.

That's been my problem recently on here.

Then models back off.............

[Scandinavian High.]

5 minutes ago, bartlett high said:

Not sure why people are drooling over charts 10 days from now which have no chance of verifying!

Because its model  discussion is that what we do on here.

[bluearmy]

7 minutes ago, bartlett high said:

Not sure why people are drooling over charts 10 days from now which have no chance of verifying!

Yep ecm from 10 days ago was miles away ................

 

[sawan]

2 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

well we could drool over pictures of naked models which we have no chance of 'verifying' but then it would be a very different forum altogether....

That's what ECM has shown earlier, for sure it's 10 days away and chances of this to verify are almost none. This is again leading to the garden path only to disappoint few hours later. So I am observing caution.

[bobbydog]

Just now, sawan said:

That's what ECM has shown earlier, for sure it's 10 days away and chances of this to verify are almost none. This is again leading to the garden path only to disappoint few hours later. So I am observing caution.

see @bluearmy 's post above...

[ribster]

7 minutes ago, joggs said:

're the couple of posts above answer to BH.

Your correct but how many times have we been here at day 10 then then confusion ensues with people telling people to look for this and that and then this will happen.

That's been my problem recently on here.

Then models back off.............

I think I know what you're referring to, and I find that style of analysis very interesting - rather than simply taking charts at face value, based on their years of experience they have at go at working out how they might evolve.

Hats off to them, everyone should understand they are not a guarantee and it's just their opinion based on their knowledge and experience. If you don't like you can always use the ignore button. I hope said posters continue with their fantastic analysis.

Edited January 6, 2018 by ribster

[Hotspur62]

Well another quiet day in the Mod Thread again lol!!Just read the last 10 pages and the latest ECM which out in FI shows true potential as it has many times before.Would love it to be correct but am just looking out to about T+120 atm as this to me is key area that may help us down the line to receive wintery weather in the UK.I am very hopeful that we will receive a good wintery/snowy spell before the months end but really not sure if it will come from PM air or from the EAST lol!!. For me so much depends on strength of Scandi Block and it would be a brave man to call on that one.All i would say is John Hammond said a few days ago that there are growing signs of a cold spell coming from the East-Now he probably has more access to info that we dont and he was one of the best imho and should be taken into account as this "saga" unfolds.That said he could be wrong lol.

As i have said about 10 days ago this winter has been the most intriguing in recent years and we still have nearly 2 months left and in this time i think many of us will see more snow events in what may become a winter to remember  

[SMU]

Early doors IKON 18z moves along nicely to the Euros @120

notice more deeper cold piling SW out of Russia-

we are now just at the tip of stability for an easterly flow @day 5 

*** Normally the GFS isn’t how far behind ***

so expect to see more changes - more Easterly isolines across Europe & the 850s begin to drop- sub -6c uppers to magically appear...

Edited January 6, 2018 by Steve Murr

[mountain shadow]

20 minutes ago, bartlett high said:

Not sure why people are drooling over charts 10 days from now which have no chance of verifying!

Because that's who we are.

[karlos1983]

26 minutes ago, bartlett high said:

Not sure why people are drooling over charts 10 days from now which have no chance of verifying!

Not sure why people come on a model output forum to tell people off for looking at.... errr Models... why not enjoy the ride with us eh. 

PS I’ve caught up, that escilated quickly  top input you lot, love it

Edited January 6, 2018 by karlos1983

[Lowestoft Weather]

Vigorous Jet-stream exiting the Eastern Seaboard States currently.

Will be interesting to see how this evolves over the coming 7 days or so. 

Instinct tells me that the Jet-stream will head south into Spain mid-month with height rises extending to our north then northwest plunging the UK into the freezer with the highest risk of heavy snow in the south initially then the east.

BV

[karlos1983]

2 minutes ago, Balanced View said:

Vigorous Jet-stream exiting the Eastern Seaboard States currently.

Will be interesting to see how this evolves over the coming 7 days or so. 

Instinct tells me that the Jet-stream will head south into Spain mid-month with height rises extending to our north then northwest plunging the UK into the freezer with the highest risk of heavy snow in the south initially then the east.

BV

That’s a fair balanced view, like it 

[SMU]

GFS now on the right tracks

many times we have talked about the GFs inability to decipher &Split different strands of energy in the Atlantic & because of this it just moves the whole lot east ‘en block’ as a result it misses key events & today is one of them

the separate areas of energy at 96-120 in UKMO that has been there for 24-36 hours has only just been picked up by the 18z op

these 2

watch them get further apart in future runs...

the 1005 low will go further North allowing the Scandi ridge further west

the 1010 low will be further south 

Edited January 6, 2018 by Steve Murr

[Team Jo]

Pleeeeeeeeeeeeeeeease. For me. For the 200-odd folks online eagerly anticipating the pub run. If you aren’t posting model discussion, if you’re incredulous that anyone in here is chasing, thinking, analysing, interpreting anything +t96 then just go elsewhere, this thread is not for your scorn/criticism of interest/pouring cold water on stuff. It’s poor to do so given then effort some of our posters go to analysing and making interpretations.

if you want to moan about how hopeless statistically based outputs are then I urge to you the moan and ramps thread. If you want to make snippy observations on people trying to make sense of statistically based outputs, then a weather forum isn’t really going to be your thing is it?

We have a short range thread which has some excellent analysis. It’s a good tonic to some of the teases we’ve seen in here and hopefully gives a bit more context and meat to progged output.