Model output discussion - into 2018

[joggs]

14 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

Very nice ecm tonight - long range just updated the high over Scandi is not going no where west - east  split .

Problem is the cold(not really cold either)won't make it to us.

I honestly think this easterly talk is or should be dead in the pan.

Our small island is in the wrong place on that chart.All we're going to end up with is wintryness restricted to hills,especially the north.

All info we can go by is not supporting what most talk of on here.

I'm a coldie but have seen this coming in the models last 2/3 days.

If we could move the British isles 1500miles further nne ,I could understand the decent undercut talk.

Edited January 6, 2018 by joggs

[CK1981]

Very encouraging signs tonight for us coldies, but let’s not get too excited until we have cross model agreement....especially following last week’s fiasco! 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just at work and seen the ECM is sticking true to form. Promise at days 8/9/10 as ever. Yawn!

I'll start to take note when that ticks down to day 5...

[northwestsnow]

25 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The mean does edge the pattern very slightly West compared to the 0z though.

Agreed-

Mean looks OK to me-

Lets be honest though- this has got a few more twists and turns to come -

[Summer Sun]

UKMO extended

ECM at the same time

[Ali1977]

Ive been out for a while this evening, and now back I’ve just checked to see 7 new pages of chat, wondered why so much chatter!!!!  then just seen the ECM!! 

Back on that roller coaster we go ?

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended

ECM at the same time

UKMO actually looks better than ECM there as well.

EDIT : for cold that is.

Edited January 6, 2018 by feb1991blizzard

[Jayces]

1 minute ago, joggs said:

Problem is the cold(not really cold either)won't make it to us.

I honestly think this easterly talk is or should be dead in the pan.

Our small island is in the wrong place on that chart.All we're going to end up with is wintryness restricted to hills,especially the north.

All info we can go by is not supporting what most talk of on here.

I'm a coldie but have seen this coming in the models fr 2/3 days.

I'm no expert on the models but for every hour past T0 the weather permutations increase exponentially and the what if scenarios become vastly different at day 10 compared to 5 but surely no matter how unlikely we think an outcome is what is modeled is a possibility if all the right blocks fall into place?

There are charts in the latest NWP showing what is being discussed, whether they come to fruition is up for debate but we won't know that until T240 gets to T0.

We just need to get lucky :-)

Yeah it can be frustrating on our little island but at least we get a wide variety of weather.

[Frosty.]

Just my opinion, don't know whether anyone else agrees but looking at tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean, it doesn't look anything like as progressive as last night's in terms of the atlantic blasting through, it looks like the pattern has edged westwards which means more of a mexican standoff between the atlantic and the cold block to the east..interesting and hopefully a sign of things to come!

Edited January 6, 2018 by Frosty.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

Just my opinion, don't know whether anyone else agrees but looking at tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean, it doesn't look anything like as progressive as last night's the terms of the atlantic blasting through, it looks like the pattern has edged westwards which means more of a mexican standoff between the atlantic and the cold block to the east..interesting and hopefully a sign of things to come!

Agreed Frosty-

We could be looking at the very least  battleground situations-

 

[Bazray]

When does the next model come out please, is it about ten? Thanks

 

[Ice Day]

I think there are more reasons for optimism this time given the UKMO has led the way, which tends to be the traditional party pooper. Seeing the similarity between it and the ECM out to 144 does provide the tantalising feeling that we could be on the cusp of something special.  And if it all goes jugs up, who cares, it's only the weather after all. 

Strap yourself in for the next gripping instalment of winter 2017/18. Time for a Sav Blanc to prep myself for the pub run.

[CK1981]

2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Just my opinion, don't know whether anyone else agrees but looking at tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean, it doesn't look anything like as progressive as last night's in terms of the atlantic blasting through, it looks like the pattern has edged westwards which means more of a mexican standoff between the atlantic and the cold block to the east..interesting and hopefully a sign of things to come!

I agree and ties in nicely with what @Steve Murr has been alluding to regarding the pattern edging westwards. I think we’ll start to see these subtle shifts over the next few days. Let’s hope we have cross model agreement soon! 

[comet]

All sensibility aside for us coldies that are looking for our winter fix and despite perhaps our better judgement, I suppose you could argue whats the point of watching the model output if we ignore even the slightest chance that what the ecm is showing could be right and for that reason I think many will be willing to be sucked in again (including myself).

It could after all turn out that this is what the ecm was seeing all along but was being over progressive in developing the pattern first time round. Well that's my straw to clutch.

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Bazray said:

When does the next model come out please, is it about ten? Thanks

 

The next of any model is the Icon which his out very soon (but that's a bin fodder model), the next proper model is the GFS, 9-30 until 11 - steadily trickles out.

[Bazray]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The next of any model is the Icon which his out very soon (but that's a bin fodder model), the next proper model is the GFS, 9-30 until 11 - steadily trickles out.

Ok thank you for that - no idea what the models mean, but am strangely addicted anyway. Judging by the reactions to the last one it's looking good, lets hope the pub run one continues the trend 

[stewfox]

37 minutes ago, Draig Goch said:

But I'm sure I read somewhere that it's expected to be a 'front loaded' Winter for us, so if that's the case, time is ticking fast on our chance of snow again this season, mid January will be mid Winter in terms of 'weather seasons' anyway 

When did FI start at 1800 hrs ? . ECM held steady GFS flip flops and now a flip flop from the ECM. Await GFS 18z with interest. It's out come will have a bearing on the cost of entry to the GFS 0z . This exclusive club meets at 4am every day in the hope of a chart showing a flake of snow in the reliable. .just don't wake her in doors when you set off for it.

[Duane S.]

Naughty ECM

Moving on from that for now,  I am absolutely loving the model watching this winter. This is not you bog standard 80% of the winter zonal flat jet dross. There’s a feeling of genuine intrigue about this winter. Like a Jan 87esque spell could be lurking in the shadows. The Arctic’s heights are, IMO, predominantly driving the slightly wildcard feel about things.

I know plenty here enjoy urging mucho caution but frankly who cares about the very high percentage chance it will implode or be watered down. I, like most others, know that, even when we are salvatating at some of the delicious output at day 10. I’m not knocking the more pragmatic posts, jeez we need them sometimes, more flying the flag for the over-enthusiastic ones.

I just love the passion from some that goes into their posts, often most prevalent when we get a sudden and ‘unexpected ‘ upgrade. A massive Steve Murr BOOM, Nick’s shortwave dissections, BB63 long posts that finish by “last one for a while” only for another to follow a few hours later ?, Shaky - so utterly consumed by excitement that there are more exclamation marks than actual letters in his posts. Love it. 

We all get a bit more cynical and jaded with age and experience but I am just glad to see the UK’s continued aversion to getting cold and 99% of eye candy FI charts fading into obscurity doesn’t dampen the enthusiasm of the aforementioned (and many others) as we embark on the next window of opportunity for snow and cold, hoping THIS one will be “the one”! 

As I discovered growing up in my more hedonistic free and single days, it’s as much about the chase as actually getting the girl...?

[Frosty.]

7 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

I agree and ties in nicely with what @Steve Murr has been alluding to regarding the pattern edging westwards. I think we’ll start to see these subtle shifts over the next few days. Let’s hope we have cross model agreement soon! 

Yes it's very encouraging isn't it, hopefully more westward adjustments to come and we could be looking at a very wintry extended outlook..caution as always but it's got more interesting this evening.

[northwestsnow]

LOL that ECday 10 is a real snow making machine-

[stodge]

Evening all

It's my new favourite time of the day (though probably not anyone else's).

Birthday watch - charts for January 15th taken from the main 12Z OP runs now at T+216:

ECM: - today's 216 and yesterday's T+240:

GFS - today's 216 and yesterday's 240:

GEM: - same again

Fascinating to see the story develop - ECM and noticeably GFS "slower" to bring the large LP down through the British Isles but GEM a little different with orientation. I'd also note the height profiles to the north - ECM looks the cleanest today with as usual GFS hinting at conveying more energy to the north east. Let's see where we are tomorrow.

[Snowman.]

25 minutes ago, joggs said:

Problem is the cold(not really cold either)won't make it to us.

I honestly think this easterly talk is or should be dead in the pan.

Our small island is in the wrong place on that chart.All we're going to end up with is wintryness restricted to hills,especially the north.

All info we can go by is not supporting what most talk of on here.

I'm a coldie but have seen this coming in the models last 2/3 days.

If we could move the British isles 1500miles further nne ,I could understand the decent undercut talk.

You can take a look back at many classic Easterly and not all of them start from the get many take days to get before the colder uppers reach our shores but it's all worth it in the end.

[nick sussex]

33 minutes ago, ShortWaveHell said:

Fancy doing a crayon job so I can know what to look for ? Or will the hand be too unsteady on a Saturday night after a Cabernet Sauvignon?

Here you go:

What you're looking for is a clearance of shortwave energy over the UK. You can see from the T96hrs the ECM has those two main shortwaves circled red, what it does is split that energy one heading east to feed low heights over northern Italy and the other swings north at T120hrs. In simpler set ups you get one trigger shortwave heading se so that's why this is a lot more complicated.

T96hrs:

 

T120hrs

The ECM gets away with that shortwave swinging north because its weak but still you'd prefer an even cleaner transition.

The key thing is that space opens up to allow the ridge to the ne to extend further sw, the ECM can't manage this because the shortwave energy is still hanging around to the north at T144hrs but still manages to overcome that after but its really reliant on heights holding on to the north/ne.

Take a look at the GFS to see how much more shortwave energy it has to the ne and north and you can see why it couldn't develop like the ECM.

So the first hurdle is that clearance, and we still need other things to go right afterwards.

Hope that helps, I'll get back to my Cabernet Sauvignon now!

 

[Man With Beard]

ECM ensembles have had a torrid time this week trying nail down the boundary between the Atlantic trough / Continental high this Thursday. Back and forth!! Though actually quite consistent with the major features except that Atlantic trough is correcting progressively further south and east ( = the whole lot possibly going under?)

          

I'm kind of regretting calling a "fail" on the Scandi High based on a UKMO T120 chart yesterday - should have waited for T96 - maybe even T72!

[Man With Beard]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

LOL that ECday 10 is a real snow making machine-

The precipitation charts on weather.us make fascinating reading (not that they are likely to be right). The Eastern side of the UK is stuck under the Atlantic front for most of 4 days from Thursday to Sunday, with plenty of rain. Then on Monday, it finally all turns to snow as the easterly kicks in.