Model output discussion - into 2018

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

I showed you this morning with the uppers spread that the eps aren’t keen on getting the trough past the meridian after the first push 

The Scandi upper ridge needs to remain strong and then the Atlantic trough can’t really just blast through 

Yes but that doesn't mean the cold will come our way, this to me has a few pushes of the Atlantic (but no snow as too much mild air) and then eventually the Atlantic breaking through written all over it.

[Dean E]

Well, as expected we are back to where we were around 3 days ago.

ECM uppers at 240, we can see where that's going.

 

Predictions over the next few runs?

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes but that doesn't mean the cold will come our way, this to me has a few pushes of the Atlantic (but no snow as too much mild air) and then eventually the Atlantic breaking through written all over it.

Slowly, slowly .....  but granted this run means very little in isolation ......

It pulls together lots of the current themes but they could fit together plenty of other ways 

[Rollo]

16 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes I would agree pretend it didn't happen but we will get plenty of practice over the next 2 weeks of reality - finding out what its like when a stonking Easterly doesn't occur and you just have average benign UK weather.

I can understand the reticence of members now when anything remotely resembling an easterly shows its face but they do happen,what is clear to me is that none of the large computers can fathom just what is going on,perhaps it is time to give them a rest for a couple of day, come back refreshed for the next attempt at a successful cold spell be it an easterly or something else.

Edited January 6, 2018 by Rollo
Mistake in spelling

[andymusic]

1 minute ago, Rollo said:

I can understand the reticence of members now when anything remotely resembling an easterly shows its face but they do happen,what is clear to me is that none of the large computers can fathom just what is going on,perhaps it is time to give them a test for a couple of day, come back refreshed for the next attempt at a successful cold spell be it an easterly or something else.

"what I and he said" - but I know some of you just "love the chase" and are totally addicted to the thread - so patient willing on of your form horse is the order of the day - hoping that easterly boy, can beat Atlantic lad to the winning post

[northwestsnow]

EU snow depth charts show snow moving into the country by day 10 from the east..

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Slowly, slowly .....  but granted this run means very little in isolation ......

It pulls together lots of the current themes but they could fit together plenty of other ways 

I actually would prefer a return to some sort of zonality rather than this stand off (obviously would rather -15c Easrerlies) but not for the reason one might think (IMBY polar Maritime) IF an SSW occurs as they apparently pack more of a punch when occurring during zonal westerlies across the Atlantic.

[snowice]

3 minutes ago, Rollo said:

I can understand the reticence of members now when anything remotely resembling an easterly shows its face but they do happen,what is clear to me is that none of the large computers can fathom just what is going on,perhaps it is time to give them a test for a couple of day, come back refreshed for the next attempt at a successful cold spell be it an easterly or something else.

In other words no model watching! 

Just watch country file next Sunday like the old days and we will be in the  freezer lol..

[JBMWeatherForever]

What I find strange is that so many people are surprised by the latest ECM. Proper easterly's never come easily, but I think after much messing about the models will now start to firm up on our upcoming easterly and start showing some exciting synoptics.  

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

& there you go.

welcome back ECM. 

a total flip ( as forecast ) to the UKMO run.

 

Big Steve

we use different methods, your model reading and synoptic evolution ahead of me by a mile....but we come to same fruition.....and welcome back ECM 

 

BFTP

[nick sussex]

8 minutes ago, Rollo said:

I can understand the reticence of members now when anything remotely resembling an easterly shows its face but they do happen,what is clear to me is that none of the large computers can fathom just what is going on,perhaps it is time to give them a rest for a couple of day, come back refreshed for the next attempt at a successful cold spell be it an easterly or something else.

 There’s no chance any of the members in here won’t be glued to the outputs.

It’s s like going to Amsterdam just for the museums! 

Paul’s happy as turnout should increase , I’m beginning to wonder whether he’s been hacking the ECM computer! 

Edited January 6, 2018 by nick sussex

[jvenge]

ECM control and mean not supportive of cold air getting as far west as the UK.

 

[ACCOUNT DELETED]

1 hour ago, andymusic said:

i'm afraid it pretty much looks like we are locked into a no mans land territory right now - cold to the left - cold way over to the right - even cold and snow to the south of us - way south in Spain and North Africa - and us left in the neutral zone for the foreseeable - think it's time to face facts - have a mid-winter break from the models - re-charge your batteries and come back fresh!

But I'm sure I read somewhere that it's expected to be a 'front loaded' Winter for us, so if that's the case, time is ticking fast on our chance of snow again this season, mid January will be mid Winter in terms of 'weather seasons' anyway 

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, That ECM said:

They've got museums? I'll lookout for them next

You know the big one Van Gogh museum next to that great coffee shop which sells wonderful chocolate brownies! 

Anyway getting back to the outputs it’s been a very strange week.  The ECM seems determined to return to the stage after a stint as the understudy.

Given the timeframes and the shortwave drama any move by the GFS 18 hrs run would be welcome .

Our foundations start as early as T96 hrs , it’s all about as clean as evolution as possible. 

The clearance of shortwave energy is what needs to happen if we’re to get over that first hurdle .

[Frosty.]

Well i'm very encouraged by the Ecm 12z even if I have to pretend it didn't really happen..nick  it's a big improvement on recent runs and shows the cold block inching westwards, if that continues on future runs it will really cause some incredible excitement on here! 

Edited January 6, 2018 by Frosty.

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, jvenge said:

ECM control and mean not supportive of cold air getting as far west as the UK.

 

The mean does edge the pattern very slightly West compared to the 0z though.

[jvenge]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The mean does edge the pattern very slightly West compared to the 0z though.

Oh, just mentioned is all. High res and supposed accurate data should count for something as well, I'd have thought.

 

[bluearmy]

6 minutes ago, jvenge said:

ECM control and mean not supportive of cold air getting as far west as the UK.

 

Almost as far as the Low Countries and it’s the first time the eps spread has shown a big area of low uppers heading west 

the spread on heights is so vast by day 10 that I expect the clusters later will reveal a wide gamut of options !!

[Cleeve Hill]

4 minutes ago, Draig Goch said:

But I'm sure I read somewhere that it's expected to be a 'front loaded' Winter for us, so if that's the case, time is ticking fast on our chance of snow again this season, mid January will be mid Winter in terms of 'weather seasons' anyway 

That is the norm for a La Nina winter (you could say the cold spell in first week of Dec reflected that) but its not as straightforward as this, and there are now expectations of colder spells Jan & Feb. 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

8 minutes ago, jvenge said:

ECM control and mean not supportive of cold air getting as far west as the UK.

 

They will as we go ahead, not tomorrow but the cold is coming

 

BFTP

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Almost as far as the Low Countries and it’s the first time the eps spread has shown a big area of low uppers heading west 

the spread on heights is so vast by day 10 that I expect the clusters later will reveal a wide gamut of options !!

The big question though is does this westward movement continue in the extended range?

[jvenge]

13 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Almost as far as the Low Countries and it’s the first time the eps spread has shown a big area of low uppers heading west 

the spread on heights is so vast by day 10 that I expect the clusters later will reveal a wide gamut of options !!

I find the control interesting. As that suggests that even if the first hurdle is overcome, there are still things that can stall it before the atlantic pushes in. 

But there is not much point thinking too much. Since id personally trust the Op to have resolved the initial (famous last words) and if it did that "right", the EPS will be laughably different tomorrow.

Edited January 6, 2018 by jvenge

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

9 minutes ago, Draig Goch said:

But I'm sure I read somewhere that it's expected to be a 'front loaded' Winter for us, so if that's the case, time is ticking fast on our chance of snow again this season, mid January will be mid Winter in terms of 'weather seasons' anyway 

Front loaded by some method.....no way, coldest still to come.  I think La Nina signal at least perturbed 

 

BFTP  

[Dennis]

strato-signs could realy come to a help now.....

[Scandinavian High.]

Very nice ecm tonight - BBC long range just updated the high over Scandi is not going no where west - east  split .

Edited January 6, 2018 by abbie123