Model output discussion - into 2018

[andymusic]

hang on folks - let's not get carried away again - today is Saturday and the 216 chart is over 8 - 9 days away and the cold still hasn't got to us - I'm not being a party pooper I promise and I'm a coldie myself - but a realistic look at this still tells me right now we are far away from anything cold at the moment

[Purga]

Strap on your seat belts - here we go again ECM!

Edited January 6, 2018 by Purga

[Ice Day]

EC with a fabulous run. TEITS been out with his crayons again? I think this is exactly what he was alluding to. Kudos to him if this lands anything like this run.

Edited January 6, 2018 by Ice Day

[nick sussex]

Being picky the ECM needs to take troughing a bit further se and less south apart from that it’s an okay run! 

[andymusic]

1 minute ago, Ice Day said:

EC with a fabulous run. TEITS been out with his crayons again? I think this is exactly what he was alluding to. Kudos to him if this lands anything like this.

and if it does it was nothing to do with the models - him and steve have got crystal balls like I said lol

[chionomaniac]

1 minute ago, andymusic said:

hang on folks - let's not get carried away again - today is Saturday and the 216 chart is over 8 - 9 days away and the cold still hasn't got to us - I'm not being a party pooper I promise and I'm a coldie myself - but a realistic look at this still tells me right now we are far away from anything cold at the moment

Perhaps you ought to take a mid winter break from the models, Andy!

 

(Joke)

[andymusic]

1 minute ago, chionomaniac said:

Perhaps you ought to take a mid winter break from the models, Andy!

 

(Joke)

I'll certainly consider the advice Chionomaniac

[nick sussex]

Okay now that everyone’s either passed out with shock or is busy stocking up on food supplies a word of caution .

The matter of the shortwave energy near the UK is crucial between T96 and T120hrs hrs and this is very uncertain .

Pretend tonight’s ECM output never happened . It’s great to look at but comes with a health warning! 

 

[Frosty.]

It's all about the bigger picture with the Ecm 12z, it's less progressive and less mild than yesterday and that big cold block is edging westwards  a few more runs of this trend and we could be looking at a very wintry extended outlook...day 10...Brrrr..Exciting potential!..I sense a meltdown brewing!

[bobbydog]

Just now, nick sussex said:

Okay now that everyone’s either passed out with shock or is busy stocking up on food supplies a word of caution .

The matter of the shortwave energy near the UK is crucial between T96 and T120hrs hrs and this is very uncertain .

Pretend tonight’s ECM output never happened . It’s great to look at but comes with a health warning! 

 

good advice nick.

[comet]

I love the way the ecm  run waits until the block is far enough east before the cold air starts to under cut and head back west. I think we can definitely say the ecm has not lost the ability to over amplify. I have been forecasting the pattern becoming more and more amplified but I must admit not to the extent that the ecm 12z run shows this evening. The worst chart of the day has to be this

Can we really fall for it a second time?, and so soon after the last flirtation from the models. It beats looking at zonal dross that's for sure.

[snowice]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Okay now that everyone’s either passed out with shock or is busy stocking up on food supplies a word of caution .

The matter of the shortwave energy near the UK is crucial between T96 and T120hrs hrs and this is very uncertain .

Pretend tonight’s ECM output never happened . It’s great to look at but comes with a health warning! 

 

Pinch of salt! If that  comes  of tones of salt

[andymusic]

Warning Warning FI FI - day 10 is way off - it looks fab and tempting but so does a furry polar bear - and the ECM just bit most of us on the a**e, so be very very cautious, otherwise more slitting of wrists will be the order of the day - that's all I'm saying

[blizzard81]

The fact that ecm agrees with the ukmo in the early timeframe encourages me greatly. I really wasn't expecting the ukmo to come out with another blocked run but it did. Now the ecm follows suit. However, we should treat the later frames of the ecm with much caution. 

[feb1991blizzard]

Yes I would agree pretend it didn't happen but we will get plenty of practice over the next 2 weeks of reality - finding out what its like when a stonking Easterly doesn't occur and you just have average benign UK weather.

[Frosty.]

12 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Pretend tonight’s ECM output never happened .  

 

I can't nick, it's such a big upgrade and so much better to look at compared to yesterday's output..hoping fingers crossed this is the way forward...❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄ 

Edited January 6, 2018 by Frosty.

[feb1991blizzard]

Now if it has a lot of ensemble support then that's a different story but I cant see them just flipping back (and then some on top) to cold.

[snowice]

1 minute ago, andymusic said:

Warning Warning FI FI - day 10 is way off - it looks fab and tempting but so does a furry polar bear - and the ECM just bit most of us on the a**e, so be very very cautious, otherwise more slitting of wrists will be the order of the day - that's all I'm saying

I think we all know, ECM is like a vacuum in sucks you in and spits you out again..! 

[nick sussex]

2 minutes ago, snowice said:

Pinch of salt! If that  comes  of tones of salt

I really fear the worst if the ECM takes us on another magical mystery tour which ends up with another letdown .

Given the timeframes at least the initial foundations will either be agreed on tomorrow morning or won’t . We don’t have long to wait to find out if the first hurdle has been overcome .

 

 

[Snowman.]

Best part right now is that even if the ECM fails completely and we follow the GFS it still shows some really great *ahem* potential.

Outcome is extremely interesting and we would be very unlucky to not get something over the coming weeks.

Edited January 6, 2018 by SN0WM4N

[bluearmy]

19 minutes ago, beng said:

Nope, it's taking too much energy north after 144 hours.

It’s a conundrum - not enough WAA and the block sinks, too much and the block sinks ...........

yep - it’s unlikely !

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Now if it has a lot of ensemble support then that's a different story but I cant see them just flipping back (and then some on top) to cold.

I showed you this morning with the uppers spread that the eps aren’t keen on getting the trough past the meridian after the first push 

The Scandi upper ridge needs to remain strong and then the Atlantic trough can’t really just blast through 

[blizzard81]

The models really are toying with us this winter. 

[swfc]

So the ecm throws out some eye candy this evening.such a big jump from this morning that chances of coming off about as likely as kim jong-un offering donald trump 14 days all inclusive !!!!

[Day 10]

Here are all 144's together. Let's hope ECM & UKMO have the better handle on the pattern.