Model output discussion - into 2018

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

thing is, there hasn't been any sign of it for a good few runs. at best, a displaced vortex or a mild hint at warming. then suddenly...

Beats a 'displaced Bartlett'?

[Frosty.]

I wouldn't mind some of that snow during FI  on the Gfs 12z, things really kick off during low res!❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄

Edited January 6, 2018 by Frosty.

[The Enforcer]

8 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

thing is, there hasn't been any sign of it for a good few runs. at best, a displaced vortex or a mild hint at warming. then suddenly...

I thought someone posted one yesterday?

[chionomaniac]

15 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

More strat jam in 16 days Bobby 

note ukmo at day 6 should strengthen the scandi ridge at day 7 with that vertical WAA up the west side 

The strat jam started at 1hPA on the 20th - and give or take it has stuck there (on the 20th) for the most of the runs. So whereas I know that it always seems like gold at the end of the rainbow, so far this is reeling in at the expected timeframe.

 

So now we see at T+336

Every little helps...

 

[ukpaul]

PTB 1 and 3 are a good example of pathways where that low doesn't stall, either elongating or being pushed north. 

240h 

 

300h 

 

360h

 

[Iceberg]

10 hours ago, Iceberg said:

I think if folks want a a cold to very cold spell they are barking up the wrong tree cheerleading for the easterly. 

The chances of any significant cold getting dragged in is low thanks to the original direction of air from the high. Lots of middlish waa though, that could well just prolong a spell of rather boring weather. 

The large portion of pv needs to come out of Hudson. All the models tend to show this exiting  on a very favourable se axis down to the southern med. 

Once  this has happened heights should rise to the north east. 

The current high looks nice and I fully understand folks wanting to clutch to the near term straw but I fear it’s a false hope.  

And the gfs shows exactly why this needs to happen. I am very happy that all of the models are moving to the scenario of a quick easterly exit. Some of them maybe reluctantly. 

The key is how quickly the really cold air can lift out of the states and whether any surface highs form over there. 

A difficult time for Models. 

[ukpaul]

This would be fun (if short lived).

PTB 17

 

Edited January 6, 2018 by ukpaul

[northwestsnow]

Think im liking the look of EC at 96 tonight- there is a signal for the Atlantic to disrupt here..

[nick sussex]

The ECM is sharper with the upstream trough than the GFS at T96 hrs.

[bobbydog]

21 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:

I thought someone posted one yesterday?

it might have been a minor hint at 'warmth' up there but i've not seen one at that intensity show up for a good while. if that did maintain and come to fruition, it has the makings of a major warming. also, people seem to overlook what's going on right now.-

by their very nature, a sudden stratospheric warming doesn't have to show up 2 weeks into the run then build from there. it could appear a week into the run and potentially be missed. partly due to the fact that most people aren't looking at the lower strat charts.

 

Edited January 6, 2018 by bobbydog

[swebby]

4 hours ago, The Enforcer said:

I have observed this 'detached PV over UK synoptic' projected at range on several occasions over the years. Can anyone post a chart where it has actually happened?

Hi Enforcer, not a chart directly, but cross checking the dates of sightings Nacreous clouds over the UK would probably indicate the dates for charts that may show what you are after?

[That ECM]

Ecm following ukmo the plot thickens. T120 gfs looks a bit different!!

Edited January 6, 2018 by That ECM

[mountain shadow]

39 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:

.... the omnipresent SSW at T+384.

It wouldn't be Winter in the model thread without one.

We must be due to get one down to T+0 soon though.

[SMU]

& there you go.

welcome back ECM. 

a total flip ( as forecast ) to the UKMO run.

 

[chionomaniac]

1 minute ago, bobbydog said:

it might have been a minor hint at 'warmth' up there but i've not seen one at that intensity show up for a good while. if that did maintain and come to fruition, it has the makings of a major warming. also, people seem to overlook what's going on right now.-

by their very nature, a sudden stratospheric warming doesn't have to show up 2 weeks into the run then build from there. it could appear a week into the run and potentially be missed.

 

Sorry, Bobbydog, that's not true. SSW's don't suddenly appear out of nowhere on the charts - the trop precursors need to be in place and this then leads to the strat knock on - hence the ability to suggest that the models at 1hPa will start to show a warming trend well before they did.

[ArHu3]

4 hours ago, The Enforcer said:

I have observed this 'detached PV over UK synoptic' projected at range on several occasions over the years. Can anyone post a chart where it has actually happened?

A famous event would be valentine's day 1979, actually it happens all the time but that time it went just far enough south and east that we ended up on the good side

Edited January 6, 2018 by ArHu3

[snowray]

8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Think im liking the look of EC at 96 tonight- there is a signal for the Atlantic to disrupt here..

ECM running with the UKMO by the look of it.

[andymusic]

i'm afraid it pretty much looks like we are locked into a no mans land territory right now - cold to the left - cold way over to the right - even cold and snow to the south of us - way south in Spain and North Africa - and us left in the neutral zone for the foreseeable - think it's time to face facts - have a mid-winter break from the models - re-charge your batteries and come back fresh!

[Day 10]

EC siding with UKMO 

Be interesting to see 168 now to see where UKMO may be headed.

Edited January 6, 2018 by Day 10

[bobbydog]

Just now, chionomaniac said:

Sorry, Bobbydog, that's not true. SSW's don't suddenly appear out of nowhere on the charts - the trop precursors need to be in place and this then leads to the strat knock on - hence the ability to suggest that the models at 1hPa will start to show a warming trend well before they did.

sorry chiono, i edited to add that it would be showing up in the lower strat but could be missed due to people only watching the top strat charts. either way, they have to start somewhere and the "omnipresent" warmings actually do move forward as you said in your earlier post.

[Sweatyman]

2 minutes ago, andymusic said:

i'm afraid it pretty much looks like we are locked into a no mans land territory right now - cold to the left - cold way over to the right - even cold and snow to the south of us - way south in Spain and North Africa - and us left in the neutral zone for the foreseeable - think it's time to face facts - have a mid-winter break from the models - re-charge your batteries and come back fresh!

That maybe but I will continue watching every possible run. It's addictive.

[chionomaniac]

2 minutes ago, andymusic said:

i'm afraid it pretty much looks like we are locked into a no mans land territory right now - cold to the left - cold way over to the right - even cold and snow to the south of us - way south in Spain and North Africa - and us left in the neutral zone for the foreseeable - think it's time to face facts - have a mid-winter break from the models - re-charge your batteries and come back fresh!

Perhaps with a zonal onslaught in the offing, but how bizarre to suggest that when the synoptics are offering a block to the NE that wouldn't need to change too much to deliver a cold spell!

[Man With Beard]

ECM completely different tonight at T144 and not far from sending enough energy under the block to allow NE heights to remain in situ

[ArHu3]

48 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:

.... the omnipresent SSW at T+384.

Yes, only from around +192h it gets into the reliable territory otherwise gfs has a tendency to postpone the ssw for  upto 4-6 weeks 

[andymusic]

1 minute ago, chionomaniac said:

Perhaps with a zonal onslaught in the offing, but how bizarre to suggest that when the synoptics are offering a block to the NE that wouldn't need to change too much to deliver a cold spell!

too much marginality around - full on north easterly today and all it could manage from the precip was a few flakes of very marginal snow at the top of the beacons locally - models just aren't dragging in enough cold uppers - see what you like but that's a fact i'm afraid