Model output discussion - into 2018

[bluearmy]

this uppers spread from ecm is a great illustration this morning of how things are currently evolving

the darker the colour the less the diffence from the mean. Generally the dark areas are representitive of where troughs and fronts or blocks will be (our blocking to the east will struggle to show because of the variation in uppers within it across runs - the azores ridge much easier to see)

watch how the first attempt to get east of the meridian succeeds and subsequent ones make less progress each time - with the smaller spreads heading both ne and se against the blocking. You can picture the broad frontal set up moving west to east and then stalling. How cold the air would be and what that would mean at the surface remains unknown but this gives you a broad picture of where we sit this morning. 

 

Edited January 6, 2018 by bluearmy

[Ali1977]

Not much movement in the GFS by 96 , needs to start changing quick to go the same way as the UKMO

[shaky]

7 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Not much movement in the GFS by 96 , needs to start changing quick to go the same way as the UKMO

At least its not moved to the ecm thats a start!!besides you will know when theres changes as steve murr is normally one the first ones to post an update!!lol

Edited January 6, 2018 by shaky

[That ECM]

5 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Not much movement in the GFS by 96 , needs to start changing quick to go the same way as the UKMO

Are you referring to the shape of the block or the energy going over the top? I would suggest the later,energy has.

[karlos1983]

@carinthian your prediction model (that you refer to) for snowfall seems pretty accurate, just popped into couple of regional threads after looking at the radar and confirmation of falling snow in the areas (roughly) that you mentioned. So keep us updated 

UKMO great this morning, ECM starting to backtrack slightly, and I expect to see it probably still on the higher end of the ensembles later as per its last 2 runs! 

 

 

Edited January 6, 2018 by karlos1983

[shaky]

4 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Are you referring to the shape of the block or the energy going over the top? I would suggest the later,energy has.

Is that less energy going over the top or more?

[That ECM]

Just now, shaky said:

Is that less energy going over the top or more?

Less imo

[karyo]

At 111 hours the 6z is not good as the 0z. The earlier run had a cut off low in southern Britain while now the low is way north of Scotland with a westerly flow.

[carinthian]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

@carinthian your prediction model for snowfall seems pretty accurate, just popped into couple of regional threads after looking at the radar and confirmation of falling snow in the areas (roughly) that you mentioned. So keep us updated 

UKMO great this morning, ECM starting to backtrack slightly, and I expect to see it probably still on the higher end of the ensembles later as per its last 2 runs! 

 

 

Yes, Karl very good from UKMO. Seems their worded forecast last week indicated a stronger resistance to a breakdown and now backed up with its latest output. Longer term hope to see upper heights increase over Scandiland and lower into mainland Europe. Hope the trend continues with days runs. Our Portal Forecast updated will be renewed on Monday, so will get back with their latest thoughts from a foreign field for those interested anyway. Cheers C

[Ali1977]

8 minutes ago, shaky said:

Is that less energy going over the top or more?

More the block is fusther East, however now at 132 we start seeing some WAA join the party so next few frames are key I guess.

Id say no improvement on this run. 

Edited January 6, 2018 by Ali1977

[Snowman.]

GFS has the jet weaker with less heading N and more SE.

[cheshire snow]

10 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

@carinthian your prediction model (that you refer to) for snowfall seems pretty accurate, just popped into couple of regional threads after looking at the radar and confirmation of falling snow in the areas (roughly) that you mentioned. So keep us updated 

UKMO great this morning, ECM starting to backtrack slightly, and I expect to see it probably still on the higher end of the ensembles later as per its last 2 runs! 

 

 

Really?

No wintry Weather in Manchester or Cheshire.

Not to worry though Looks to me that the Atlantic is not going to get to far into The UK going of this morning Runs.

C.S

[karyo]

At 144 hours the gfs couldn't be more different than the UKMO. Pressure is higher over central Europe with the Atlantic low more round (it was elongated before) and a southwesterly for us.

Let's see if it can at least manage some cold zonality later.

[karlos1983]

6 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Really?

No wintry Weather in Manchester or Cheshire.

Not to worry though Looks to me that the Atlantic is not going to get to far into The UK going of this morning Runs.

C.S

Yeah I’m obviously making it up ?  pop into the midlands regional. It’s not a widespread snowfall and that wasn’t suggested by C either. 

I was just highlighting/ providing feedback, being as carinthian went to the effort to get the predictions for us all.

Edited January 6, 2018 by karlos1983

[Tim Bland]

49 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Yep the UKMO have copied my drawings this morning.

Personally I am just enjoying watching this unfold. This is following a rather typical pattern of the models showing an E,ly, dropping the idea, then bringing it back. Following a potential E,ly is far more entertaining than any drama on the TV!

At the moment the UKMO continues to lead the way which is why I was surprised some wrote off the chance of an E,ly developing.

Dave do you honestly see us getting anywhere close to this synoptic..ie a genuinely cold Easterly with snow? 

 I’m quite happy with the ECM / GFS cold zonality, at least there is a good chance of snow for most. Just need to see more heights around the pole to keep the jet angled SW sending low pressures deep into Europe towards the Med. mid to late Jan in the ideal time for cold zonality to deliver. I expect we will have more easterly chances in Feb after a SSW weakens / displaces the PV

[bluearmy]

4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Yeah I’m obviously making it up ?  pop into the midlands regional. It’s not a widespread snowfall and that wasn’t suggested by C either. 

I was just highlighting/ providing feedback, being as carinthian went to the effort to get the predictions for us all.

You sort of are karlos  ?) - I can only see evidence of snowfall on the tops of the hills from the regionals (and TM's fell yesterday!)

anyway, the 06z looks under amplified over scandi so perhaps not the best guidance 

 

Edited January 6, 2018 by bluearmy

[winterof79]

Well i know where my money is going in this complex set up

UKMET and Carinthians professionals. As we progress the energy to disrupt s/e and hence the chance of "one or more significant snow events"

 

[cheshire snow]

9 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Yeah I’m obviously making it up ?  pop into the midlands regional. It’s not a widespread snowfall and that wasn’t suggested by C either. 

I was just highlighting/ providing feedback, being as carinthian went to the effort to get the predictions for us all.

I was not having a go at C or anyone else so sorry if you took it that way.

I was just Highlighting the fact that apart from the highest tops in the Midlands there has been no sleet/snow.

Edit

See Blue has just Replied.

C.S 

[Ali1977]

Looking cold day 9, poss interest beyond as high over the Arctic and a big chunk ove PV heading over us from the NW. poss v good FI with Arctic High and Arctic blast , and big snow storm

Edited January 6, 2018 by Ali1977

[TEITS]

6 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Dave do you honestly see us getting anywhere close to this synoptic..ie a genuinely cold Easterly with snow? 

 I’m quite happy with the ECM / GFS cold zonality, at least there is a good chance of snow for most. Just need to see more heights around the pole to keep the jet angled SW sending low pressures deep into Europe towards the Med. mid to late Jan in the ideal time for cold zonality to deliver. I expect we will have more easterly chances in Feb after a SSW weakens / displaces the PV

At the moment its very tricky to call but both possible scenarios are exciting.

We could yet see an E,ly around the +144/+168 period i.e UKMO. We could also see the GFS/ECM being right with a cold, zonal spell.with blocking to developing over Greenland and Scandi. Whatever happens this thread won't be boring over the next 2 weeks!

[sebastiaan1973]

You can  check the EC-Oper, control and it's members overhere http://kachelmannwetter.com/de/modellkarten/euro/europa-afrika/m48_geopotential-500hpa/20180115-0600z.html

[karlos1983]

13 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

You sort of are karlos  ?) - I can only see evidence of snowfall on the tops of the hills from the regionals (and TM's fell yesterday!)

anyway, the 06z looks under amplified over scandi so perhaps not the best guidance 

 

Defamation of character you’ll hear from my lawyers.... 

granted I’m on my phone so can’t see people’s altitude, but I also didn’t state low level snow 

What’s your punt late next week BA? Or you on the fence..?

CS,  I’m fairly thick skinned I didn’t take offence. I probably should have looked at people’s altitude first anyway.

 

Edited January 6, 2018 by karlos1983

[Weather-history]

GFS 06z has a portion of the polar vortex moving towards the UK but noticeably it drags some intensely cold air off Canada with it. Interesting if that were to come off.

[Ali1977]

Very snowy next weekend should GFS be correct, Monday after especially in -6c uppers so pretty much anywhere - forget the East feed, get this on.

now this is a chart ?

Edited January 6, 2018 by Ali1977

[Ice Day]

Looking like the arctic high will link up across Greenland and split the PV, leaving most of it our side of the NH.  Could be an interesting FI coming up