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Model output discussion - into 2018


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Norway
  • Location: Norway
1 minute ago, Weather-history said:

ECU1-240.GIFECU0-240.GIF?06-12

I can't remember if it that is colder at the 500hpa level it has an impact on the snow level lower down. There is certainly very cold air aloft. 

at 500Hpa lvl its around-40/-42 -so good snow temps 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, Weather-history said:

ECU1-240.GIFECU0-240.GIF?06-12

I can't remember if it that is colder at the 500hpa level it has an impact on the snow level lower down. There is certainly very cold air aloft. 

Not sure Kev-

Someone with a bit more knowledge might have a good idea- FWIW the EU snow depth charts derived from that run show lying snow by day 10 across much of NW Britain and TBH ridiculous amounts of snow in Bonny Scotland..

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

You couldn't make it up what drama this morning!

The UKMO stands out at T144hrs and the GFS close behind, the ECM still not as good but a touch less progressive than yesterday.

The differences centre on the handling of shortwave energy near the UK aswell as this both the UKMO and GFS have a sharper trough upstream at the key timeframe.

This indicates more energy going se, compared to the ECMs rounded trough at the base.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

You couldn't make it up what drama this morning!

The UKMO stands out at T144hrs and the GFS close behind, the ECM still not as good but a touch less progressive than yesterday.

The differences centre on the handling of shortwave energy near the UK aswell as this both the UKMO and GFS have a sharper trough upstream at the key timeframe.

This indicates more energy going se, compared to the ECMs rounded trough at the base.

I agree with nick, a step in the right / cold direction this morning, especially the ukmo which was also the standout yesterday.. signs that the Ecm is starting to backtrack from yesterday's milder output..expect more twists..hopefully in a very good way for coldies!:) :cold-emoji:

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Even if any short easterly shown by the UKMO isn't that cold its important to remember that the following synoptics with trough dropping se will approach at a more favourable angle. Its starting point will be better than the ECM.

The more resistence the block puts up the better, we want high pressure to be forced nw as the trough moves in. As long as that happens you certainly don't want the block removed quickly as that signifies a less favourable upstream pattern.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, nick sussex said:

Even if any short easterly shown by the UKMO isn't that cold its important to remember that the following synoptics with trough dropping se will approach at a more favourable angle. Its starting point will be better than the ECM.

The more resistence the block puts up the better, we want high pressure to be forced nw as the trough moves in. As long as that happens you certainly don't want the block removed quickly as that signifies a less favourable upstream pattern.

Both GFS/EC show excellent snow chances later on Nick and the EC mean is a pretty hefty upgrade overnight- i would suggest there are some nice looking ens this morning!

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Both GFS/EC show excellent snow chances later on Nick and the EC mean is a pretty hefty upgrade overnight- i would suggest there are some nice looking ens this morning!

I'll have a trawl through the members soon but the GFS is still much better because it has a sharper trough. You want rid of that rounded shape at the base on the ECM.

Rounded means less trough disruption, more sharper means more.

What we're trying to do is sharpen it up so that an undercut might be possible, the flow when you have low pressure running in against a block from the west or sw isn't as shown by the slp charts , so if you see what looks like a southerly it will actually be more from the se.

 

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
49 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Nice chart Frosty. Hope this comes off for you lot. Think a dryer spell with some frost would be welcome by most in the UK. Looks increasingly solid on this run from UKMO. See if the other follow. Also source of surface air will be pretty cold to say the least.

C

Carinthian i gota say amongst all the atlantic onslaught yesterday on the big models you gave one heck of an update mentioning that the high shall prove more stubborn till at least friday!!if this continues to upgrade kudos to that foreign update?

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
22 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Today’s 00Z UKMO 168 hour chart seems to hold the Atlantic back today with what looks to be Low Pressure wanting to disrupt to the South-West of the U.K.

CC3CC218-F3AE-4F2E-8571-67A83E59B837.thumb.png.8bdf901451f40aad3d603d70a288ccc5.png

And improvement compared to yesterday’s 00Z UKMO 168 hour chart (for those who ain’t keen on Atlantic dominated weather), where the Atlantic broke through:

BE86FFFE-3117-4AB9-9A07-2CFB9BED720D.thumb.png.4fa5b4487e3ef3f00573247af7b7ff71.png

Signs that perhaps models, such as the UKMO, may have been under-estimating the strength of any blocking to our East/North-East. But still not a full done deal yet :) 

Only just seen this and that looks a corker..

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GEM 240

gem-0-240.png?00

No thanks- that would be quite horrendous.

Not to worry, as we all know the GEM is useless..... :whistling:

Really pleasant start to today, all models have improved and the UKMO is looking very nice at 144 with cold air encroaching from the east

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions 

Maybe TEITS update yesterday has got some legs, let's see if the 6z can continue the upbeat mood.

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
15 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GEM 240

gem-0-240.png?00

No thanks- that would be quite horrendous.

Why? It is cold zonality and not that different to what the later stages of ECM show.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
2 minutes ago, karyo said:

Why? It is cold zonality and not that different to what the later stages of ECM show.

ECM0-240.GIF?06-12

EC  Snowy for NW Britain,GEM is wet and a lot stormier.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

with so many (quite varied considering the timescale) clusters evident on yesterday's eps pretty early on, it's not surprising to see changes evident in the ops 

most significant thing in have seen this morning is the updated T84 FAX placing a high centre 1032 mb at the western point of Norway (wasn't there yesterdays 12z T96). This shows the ridge is proving more resilient and the eps mean this morning continue to show an upper pattern continuing to sharpen and get further north as more runs come on board with the feature, run by run. 

surface pressure distribution around this upper pattern is bound to vary somewhat, run to run, ens member to ens member, model to model. we cannot know how the blocking will play out but the pulse of the Atlantic aligned to the emergence of a sig chunk of vortex from west of Greenland post day 7 is the big question. At the moment it shows to 'disrupt'/slide se against the blocking, generally across nw Europe. there is along way to travel on this - a sou'wester by the end of the 8/12 day period is still feasible (though the most unlikely) but also a screaming cold sou'easter bringing a countrywide blizzard. (Also unlikely I might add). A wide envelope indeed!

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

ECM0-240.GIF?06-12

EC  Snowy for NW Britain,GEM is wet and a lot stormier.

Even the ECM is wet snow. Day 10 anyway so likely to change again.

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
22 hours ago, tight isobar said:

There are a number of developing dynamics that are shouting a quick change in modeling.

Some very interesting synoptics rearing.

Going to await 12z suites before further divulge/analysis.

I look forwards to your own analysis teits.

See you all for 12z...

Well the change is on.

And i was going to disect, ens all round.

However the change is-quicker/starker than i assumed.

So i'll await todays cross sets.

Gfs 6z being first of decipher.

 

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
1 minute ago, TEITS said:

Yep the UKMO have copied my drawings this morning.:cold:

Personally I am just enjoying watching this unfold. This is following a rather typical pattern of the models showing an E,ly, dropping the idea, then bringing it back. Following a potential E,ly is far more entertaining than any drama on the TV!

At the moment the UKMO continues to lead the way which is why I was surprised some wrote off the chance of an E,ly developing.

Can you get your crayons out again before the 12z's please?!

You're absolutely correct re the entertainment factor of following a potential easterly, we all know that these are rare beasts and the most flimsy of synoptics can derail them at a moments notice, but very occasionally they'll come to fruition.  Now this winter is throwing up surprises left, right and centre, so if any year is going to deliver maybe this is the one.  Anywhoo, eye's down for the 6z.

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